Parts of NATO already do believe he's bluffing.
"Estonia has become the first NATO member to call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
On Tuesday, the Baltic nation's parliament passed a resolution urging EU states and United Nations members to "take immediate steps to establish a no-fly zone in order to prevent massive civilian casualties in Ukraine." https://www.newsweek.com/estonia-parliament-first-nato-member-call-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-1688069
The former Russian Foreign minister says he thinks Putin is bluffing and won't use nuclear weapons against the west:
"I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII....So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West." https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1500611808247234562
Gary Kasparov has said he thinks Putin is bluffing.
The former European commander of NATO in Europe - General Wesley Cllark thinks Putin is bluffing:
"The big problem, argues Clark and others, is that if the U.S. shows it’s afraid to risk calling Putin’s bluff, both he and China’s Xi Jinping will know they can force the U.S. to back down with the threat of nuclear escalation.
“If we don't understand how to handle that threat now, it's going to bedevil us in NATO, or in Taiwan. China's watching. And the whole world is watching this sight of the great United States of America. And we're letting Putin define the problem and draw the red lines,” Clark said. “It's a real inflection point in U.S. foreign policy. We have got to find a way through this.” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/feeling-increasingly-abandoned-by-the-west-zelensky-makes-a-desperate-plea-for-more-help
So a former NATO commander and the parliament of a NATO country believe it's a bluff.
I don't necessarily want NATO to intervene, just a coalition of countries agreeing to do the right thing. Some of that coalition, like Poland, might be NATO members, but they wouldn't be acting under NATO's banner. Too many people are hopelessly stuck on this NATO or nothing mindset.
Some speculation that I've seen reckons that high ranking generals etc are being deployed into frontlines to try and prevent desertions and low morale.
Simply will and do pay more
It's a bit weird to have a bathroom style sink in the kitchen. Just seems so out of place.
Bad omens this week from what I can tell, and from reading the Sunday papers:
seems to me like we are closing in on one of the scenarios laid out by experts, which is just a prolonged (months / years) stalemate, with indiscriminate civilian suffering. A Syria, a humanitarian catastrophe, on the border of the EU, that no-one will be able to do anything about
Basil Fawlty: "I fought in the Korean War, you know. I killed four men!"
Sybil Fawlty: [to guests] "He was in the catering corps. He poisoned them."
I had something similar in a bedsit in Rathmines in the early 90s.
I suspect they have been adapting the system so it is considered "open" but no transactions actually take place. They will probably just lock the prices at a level no-one will buy at, or will just push through fake transactions. But it will be "open"
I would suggest skipping the history stuff and starting from the Giant Antenna In Space bit. The Snowden revealed SHARP bit is also relevant.
How rough was Rathmines in the early 90s when ye stored rockets in your kitchens?
That sounds horrific. You've been through it. Probably got a 1000 yard stare.
Landlords used to be quite strict back then. Couple of days late with the rent and they'd do anything to get you out of the place.
Very rough, there were generals getting shot round the corner and all sorts.
Haha, I see what you did there.
Who's saying we will have Nuclear war? I would say yes if NATO actually attacked Russia itself but to deploy NATO troops into Ukraine with the principle to stop a war and restore peace isn't enough to start a Nuclear war.
Part of me agrees with you. Is a safe, democratic, "happy" society worth it if the cost is ignoring the suffering of others? Is looking after ourselves and our own little circle more important that protecting others?
On the other side, if it goes wrong the suffering will be infinitely worse...
There really is no good option...
Sanctions will be an ever present obstacle to Putin's Russia.
Putin is ahead of the game I believe. He saw that coming and made plans accordingly to deal with that.
Well, that's that cleared up then 🙄
At miminum it would be NATO vs Russian troops. By far and away greater than Cuban missile crisis.
I don't see justification for bringing the world to that state.
NATO aren't attacking Russia in their own Country.
The argument that to move against Russian forces in Ukraine will risk nuclear war is ridiculous. Once Europe accepts that, sure Russia or China or USA can do what they want. Or in truth any state with nuclear weapons. You might as well abandon the UN and NATO for that matter. I think the time is approaching when individual states are going to go into Ukraine to defend and drive out the invaders.
So, you think Putin is rational? Have you kids?
As for sanctions, no way Putin thought the West would react the way they did. What day of the two day war are we on now? Putin totally miscalculated. Everyone can see that.
So Whospers, what’s your red line? At which point should Europe move to take on Russian war crimes and expansion? When is enough, enough?
Chinese Whospers won't agree with you there. He is fooled by the impact of the sanctions and reckons Russia will go back to the stone age with them in place. If only he wasn't as nieve to read through the lines and wake up to the fact that Putin has this covered already and is a step ahead.
The moment any NATO troops enter Ukraine in any direct military capacity, then it would be a dream come true for Putin, Russia is being "attacked" by NATO, he was "right" all along, invasion of Russia by NATO is imminent, all actions (including nuclear) on the table.
I also don't get, why NATO forces can't get into Ukraine (while invited there) and shot Russian stuff flying over Ukrainian territory? It is perfectly defence action.
Absolutely, individual or a group of bordering states can go into Ukraine. That would risk escalation, but safer than NATO attacking Russian forces directly.
Extraordinary footage of a Russian BTR fighting Russian armor (this is likely the commander view which is not synced to the gun optics)
In the unlikely scenario where Russia attacks Nato directly. This won't happen though.
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