Another interesting analysis on why the experts did not think that a full scale invasion would occur and what would be the terrible consequences of Russia going to war with Ukraine:
If twitter is to be believed the belarussians are coming. Anyone follow any credible accounts with any info on whats going on?
Nothing on MSM yet.
Germany was a much more sophisticated culture prior to the Nazi period ,Russia has never been Western European like
A good summary of the last 24h events
The Americans should know - right down to what they are having for breakfast
There is probably some truth to that but talking eventually leads to progress and agreements. It's not unfair to say that his battlefield looks unlikely to deliver anything worthwhile. Losses in equipment and manpower are mounting so an agreement that can be made to look like it satisfies some of his objectives is about the only game left.
Reports on Belarus to date have stories of soldiers refusing to carry out orders and he really doesn't have the control that Putin has.
the Belarus President will face a mutiny… If we thought that morale was low in the Russian army, it will be nothing compared to the low morale of the Belarusian army
What do you mean exactly , I'm not up speed on this
I asked first
Fleet of Russian Special Flight Squadron planes on the way to pick up infantry in the east.
Russia looks like planning a magor assault linking up with Belarusian forces who are heading to the Russian border. This will be Putin last push I believe if this fails he will have to come to a peace deal.
Russia are no longer welcome to take parts of European countries
First off, although I'm quoting @is_that_so my comments are not aimed at them, just using what they've said as an illustration.
an agreement that can be made to look like it satisfies some of his objectives is about the only game left.
This sentiment, and many others in the same vein makes me very angry. It makes me think that people want to hand out a participation trophy to Putin. or a party bag containing a cheap, plastic, Made In China toy and a slice of cake, that everyone has to go away with something.
No. Mr Putin, you get nothing. NOTHING! I said, good day sir!
I understand that the important thing is to stop killing people and to do that as quickly as possible, but the thought of Putin profiting by even the smallest amount out of all this makes my blood boil.
Rant over, I return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
Russia needs to be punished by maintaining sanctions when this ends
You might want to step away from the thread and go out into the brisk air! An agreement if/when it comes will be all about realpolitik and whether you like it or not he has to get something or believe he has got something. As they say any agreement that leaves all parties feeling annoyed is a good one.
It really isn't if it just encourages him to try again in two years time.
He doesn't have that time IMO. Even if an agreement were to come very soon, unrolling sanctions will take some time. His military really doesn't look up to another run at anyone any time soon and it is very possible someone will find a way to retire him.
Wouldn't it be great if the Belarusian forces just turned around and went straight for Minsk.
It will take the Russians decades to build their military to levels capable of invading big countries. If there is a peace deal, the west will rapidly build the Ukrainian military up to a serious force and supply them with all the equipment. This will happen even if Ukraine agrees to not join NATO and/or call themselves neutral.
Question specifies "would" as opposed to "should" which fundamentally changes what is being asked.
I don't think I want to know. It's too depressing and the West will again just shrug its shoulders and announce sanctions on some second cousin of Putin while "demanding the bloodshed stops"
Was reading that the bomb shelter underneath the bombed theatre held .. so at least there appears to be some hope regarding survivors ...
Looks like Russia ordered the funds from it's frozen assets to pay it's debt. Looks probable the US will allow the funds to go to investors.
So Russia is likely able to pay it's debt from sanctioned funds and also use swift to receive funds for oil and gas and other important things.
Don't see any mention of SWIFT in that article. This is Russia paying off a small amount of debt using frozen foreign assets, which the US Treasury said they'd let go through. Weirdly can't find any other confirmation of this, and the amount in the grand scheme of Russian debt is miniscule. Still, it seems odd.
yea i had hoped - it could have been a game changer
Curious about this also. 117 million for coupons is not much, the fact that they are paying it means that for all their bravado they do care about their credit status and obligations. Maybe they routed unfrozen funds some way through the system, or maybe those payments were specifically unblocked because it's foreign reserves leaving Russia
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