the Belarus President will face a mutiny… If we thought that morale was low in the Russian army, it will be nothing compared to the low morale of the Belarusian army
Reports on Belarus to date have stories of soldiers refusing to carry out orders and he really doesn't have the control that Putin has.
There is probably some truth to that but talking eventually leads to progress and agreements. It's not unfair to say that his battlefield looks unlikely to deliver anything worthwhile. Losses in equipment and manpower are mounting so an agreement that can be made to look like it satisfies some of his objectives is about the only game left.
The Americans should know - right down to what they are having for breakfast
A good summary of the last 24h events
Germany was a much more sophisticated culture prior to the Nazi period ,Russia has never been Western European like
If twitter is to be believed the belarussians are coming. Anyone follow any credible accounts with any info on whats going on?
Nothing on MSM yet.
Another interesting analysis on why the experts did not think that a full scale invasion would occur and what would be the terrible consequences of Russia going to war with Ukraine:
An interesting insight into the mentality of the Russian people and the generational divide
Large columns of Belarus forces on the move this morning to Dobrush but in direction of the Russian boarder.
Quite a lot of analysis from the Hoover Institution (H.R. McMaster, Niall Ferguson, et al.) on YouTube seems a bit more downbeat on Ukraine's prospects and the western strategy, which, they say, has been far too enabling of Putin by declaring what the west won't do, basically giving him freehand to do as he pleases knowing that the west won't escalate. The consensus there is that the lesson of this for Xi will be that he can get away with taking Taiwan.
Had a chuckle when looking at the quote and seeing the YouTube still image.
Is there any updates on casualties at the theatre shelter .
And the award for the biggest dickhead goes to...
Seems obscene the west is still buying their oil and gas
How much quicker would it end if we stopped
This is actually one of the best explanations Ive seen, of how that society operated.
The west has really hung Ukraine out to dry here. Having them fight Putin whilst giving them just enough support to keep in the fight but not enough to have a chance to really save the country.
NATO knew what russias MO was and for some reason didn't and still haven't supplied Ukraine with any proper air defence systems. Placing a few C-Rams in Kiev and other cities would have spared countless lives and billions in infrastructure. Yes they would have been hit but nowhere near as badly. Look at Israel and how many rockets actually cause damage there even though Hamas could spend a night firing volleys of them. They talk about only giving defensive weapons but I don't see any weapon being more defensive than that.
It's hard to see why they would turn west after this is over given the way they've been treated by the leaders in the west. I however could see a Iron Curtain Nato type alliance forming of former soviet underlings and I don't think that's in the interest of the west at all.
Pity that thing with Belarus was all about nothing.
Entirely possible I suppose; but I can't imagine Russia aren't looking for some kind of way out. Whether or not they'll find a mutual agreement is a different matter though.
Presumably Ukraine are well aware that a diplomatic agreement might not be forthcoming and are fighting as they would even if negotiations were not ongoing. I suppose it's possible they're being more cautious about their approach to fighting on the off-chance Russia aren't just trying to play for time but who knows.
Great time to be a Colonel in the Russian army, loads of promotion opportunities.
I think that's obvious.
As obvious as the completely **** "special operation"
Rupel back to 90:1 USD
will take a bit longer till sanctions really start to Bite… China and India are still trading away with Russia.
If that little peanut headed **** in Moscow didn't have notions that we wouldn't be where we are.
But he did, and I've had about 100 pints this evening and I love the Ukrainians and hope every single one of them we receive prospers and their homeland is rebuilt swiftly.
It is incomprehensible what they have been through in a few weeks.
There should be no swift comeback for Russia from this either.
Just people don't just disagree with injustice. They do something about it
That number appears to be factoring in not only the cost of actually running the Russian war machine, but the cost per day from the heavy sanctions placed upon the country. This is not the only breakdown of the economics of Russia's war, but there aren't many forecasts I've come across that paint the situation as sustainable. It can't be great if the country is looking to default on some of its debts and is looking to pay the interest on others in Rubles, which are worth less and less every day because of runaways inflation.
I don't see that number as realistic compared to what the yanks spent on their misadventures.
Looks like the tide is turning on the civilian targeting by Russia and the "delaying" peace talks going by the twitter feeds from various countries - and about time
I hope for the sake of Russia and global security in general that if Putin is overthrown, Russia undergoes a West Germany-style transition. The Germans went from being a genocidal pariah nation to a firmly democratic Western-aligned state in just over a decade. A democratic, prosperous Russia that is properly integrated into the Western world should be the long term goal.
Of course many of its former satellite states in Eastern Europe would want to see far harsher treatment, which is understandable. But a broken, isolated Russia, or a balkanised Russia will inevitably fall into China's orbit imo.
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