I think this is it. Or at least was the original intention. This is the only motivation for the whole invasion that makes any sense to me (of course, I have no more insight than anyone else on these matters, so take it for what it's worth):
Putin wanted his annexation of Crimea and the vassal status of the Donbas regions legitimised. Putting his troops in there left him with sanctions and an eternal conflict hanging over him. The rest of the world was just never going to accept it.
So the plan was to go in big (under the flimsiest of pretexts), take as much of Ukraine as possible, break the military and political establishment, and negotiate back from that. Get recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and the "independence" of the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" (possibly extended from the separatist held territories), not just by Ukraine, but by extension the whole West too. Normalise their status and start to get sanctions lifted - all on notion that if Ukraine agrees to it, the the West will too. I'm not sure if the demands regarding keeping what would have been left of Ukraine out of NATO and the EU were actual red lines or not. Maybe the NATO one, but I suspect Russia may have dropped the EU one, and hoped that everything that would go into integrating a broken, impoverished country with a massive population into the EU would distract and weaken the bloc for a long time to come. (note, I'm talking about Russia's potential position here, not my personal feelings on Ukrainian EU membership).
Problem is, I don't think he factored on the resistance of the Ukrainians, the inept state of his army and the swift unified economic response from the West (he had his nuclear threat ready to neutralise any direct military intervention). So the invasion is taking much longer and proving to me more costly (in every sense of the term: money, equipment, troops, morale, domestic support, international support) than he ever expected - and even if he does succeed in taking the major cities of Ukraine, breaking the official army and ousting the government, and even if he is able to negotiate Crimea and Donbas back from that - he's still left with a Europe that literally thinks he's the worst person since Hitler. Even if the official sanctions were to be lifted as part of a negotiated settlement (and I don't think they would be), there's also the "market" sanctions. Western companies just won't want to deal with Russia because they won't trust it while he's still in power. Europe will move away from Russian exports (especially gas and petroleum) no matter what. Entire industries won't ever take the risk of dealing with Russia under Putin, because there's no possible guarantee he can give that he won't do something like this again.
So now Putin is unable to back down. His entire purpose as President of Russia is being a strongman. He has to go for broke. Unfortunately for the ordinary Russian people, that's not a euphemism. And unfortunately for the Ukrainian people, their physical destruction is the price he's willing to pay to save face. He'll keep going and take/destroy as much as he can, and see where the chips fall. From his point of view, that's the best he can hope for at this stage. The invasion has been a massive miscalculation, which makes it seem irrational. But he just can't go back.
It will be interesting to see how the US, and especially the Fox et Al crew will appraise this and react
Soon as the Covid narrative began falling apart, it was a very sudden pivot to "forget the last two years of non-stop Covid propaganda, look over here... war!" 😄
Nothing says "Trust the science" like Pfizer trying to lock away their safety data for 75 years, lol.
So yeah, anyway, good man, #istandwithUkraine etc etc... enjoy your latest distraction, hahaha. You definitely ain't getting played again 🤣
He meant to say you're just a clown!
For a girl who has no intention of helping any Ukrainians or showing Jack **** in sympathy to them you've suddenly become very concerned about them. Your lack of empathy is only exceeded by your stupidity.
What utter bullsh*t. The real issue is Russia invading Ukraine for no reason other than the whims of an autocratic megalomaniac, not an occasional pianist having their concert cancelled, or people being asked to account for their pro putin or “both sides” stance with reference to reason and logic, not the propaganda of Lavrov and their ilk. That there are wide ranging attempts on here and other places to draw false equivalence between a brutal invasion of Ukraine and the criticism of those espousing putin friendly or sympathetic views is quite frankly ridiculous. No one is prevented for making a genuine argument based on facts. See pro Russian protests in Berlin from Russian “ex-pats”.
When people hold opinions that are based on lies, calling them out on that is not censorship. People have a right to hold any views on the matter. don’t go whinging when views based on obvious lies are ridiculed.
In the world of the contrarian they have the right to hold whatever lunatic position they wish, but no one has the right to point out the lunacy is it?
NYT journalist reported to have been shot dead
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnsons-friendship-with-evgeny-lebedev-deepened-despite-mi6-concerns-56bl5hklb
Orwellian stuff. No one is exaggerating when they describe Putin and apparatus as the new Hitler.
@growleaves do not post in this thread again
Given how badly the military kit was maintained I have a feeling the Russian nuke bunkers could be in rag order as well.
A $700 million super yacht isn't going to protect you from fallout Vlad ☢️
Interesting development… I haven’t seen anything about this in the U.K. media
Agreed. In a full on nuclear winter and air filtration system (you're going to need engineers) issues how many more could be supported for 5-10 years? They'd be emerging to a Mars like terrain. It'd be a half life until the inevitable end.
Nuclear fallout is a little bit overblown. It certainly an issue in the days following a nuclear attack. However, eventually the radioactive dust will settle. The real problem with a nuclear war is the millions of tons of soot from burning cities that will go into the upper atmosphere causing low temperatures in the summer and for potentially years afterwards.
The majority of the global population won't die from nuclear fall out. Unfortunately it will be starvation that takes them.
It could just as easily be the opposite though, the chances of him being removed from power without being killed are getting lower and lower and if he feels threatened enough he might just retreat to a bunker and make sure that none of his enemies survive
If you come across that again I'd like a link. :P
I heard that (edit: the one this morning). No she wasn't challenged on her points whatsoever (I think same kinds of ones tomalak and other posters have made on this thread). In fairness, to do that credibly on the programme may have needed someone knowledgeable on Ukraine/Russia and politics + recent history of both with opposing views or to know she would come out with that so the host can be prepared, and put opposing views.
I didn't know who she was but if she was an "Irexit" supporter does not surpise me. She started getting a bit shouty about "the usual EU fan boys" (?) risking Irish "neutrality" - didn't have a clue who/what exactly she was on about.
She was also seemed quite confident that the Poles and the Balts etc have nothing at all to fear from Russia in future, and any talk of EU common defence etc. is hysteria and a poorly disguised attempt to prime the pump for the military industrial complex. Am sure they will all be relieved to hear that from the mouth of someone living fairly safe & sound on an island quite far from Russia, and can sleep soundly now!
Apart from Russia in WWI. :D I've tried to read up on the Russian revolution half a dozen times but online the details seem a bit sparse and just when you think you know what's happening some other guy from a group that hasn't really been mentioned pops up and has massive support apparently with no explanation. 😅
Bbc finding the one guy who speaks English on a bus and all he wants to talk about is legalising weed 😂😂🥰
” I’m ok I smoke weed …..420 yeah “ 😂😂😂
”I’m glad that’s all you’re worried about “
How would the even manage air changing in a bunker. It would need to be a hugely sophisticated air management system that would need constant maintenance. That’s if it’s even possible to filter nuclear fallout from air and still leave the required elements for breathing in it. I’d be sceptical that it’s possible over any significant length of time.
maybe storing air in huge tanks and some sort of replenish system for oxygen?
She spoke at an Irexit conference at the RDS in February 2018 at which Nigel Farage was the headline speaker. Other speakers included Hermann Kelly and John Waters.
You don't have to be a genius to work out that that whole conference and "movement" was dodgy as hell.
I wonder how many people in Poland are against the country’s membership of Nato.
easier to philosophize about American imperialism when you aren’t in the firing line
Even if a nation is divided into different factions, history has shown about the surest way to unite them is for an outside force to attack them.
What should the west do?
The tiptoeing around involvement should stop, in order to save lives, not wait for the scale of horror to escalate and then act. The intellectual cleansing of the 2 million has already started - the mayor kidnapped, the journalist likely kidnapped - the attack and theft of an aid convoy, the shooting of civillians everywhere, the targetting of civilian buildings everywhere, the use of thermobaric weapons, now perhaps even white phosphorous, 63 hospitals have been damaged, if not attacked outright.
The west should grow up and act now.
How much was down to Zelensky's ammunition not a ride speech to both galvanise the Ukrainian people and invigorate western countries to supply weapons.
200 Russian tanks confirmed destroyed in just under 3 weeks.
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