Reportedly Putin has begun clearing out his top advisers and intelligence people. It is sinking in that this has gone spectacularly wrong. He no longer believes he still has the upper hand.
Putin values control and dominance above everything else. Once the first nuclear warhead is used, he will have entirely lost control of the situation. Nothing he does afterwards can affect the obvious outcome.
Perhaps not. Australia is the worlds largest exporter of LNG. It currently exports a lot to China. Australia and China are not on good terms due to Austalia standing up the pri*ks on numerous fronts and rowing back strongly from their previous close involvment with them. Japan takes a lot of LNG also, partly because of them shuttering their nuclear power stations.
Given the unprecedented spirit of international cooperation we are seeing at the moment, I think Australia should have discussions with Japan and ask them to bring their nuclear power stations back online so they can excuse Australia from it's contractual committments to Supply LNG - then cut all LNG shipments to China because they are pri*ks, thus enabling Australia to completely replace all the gas Germany currently gets from Russia, provided they have the LNG terminal capacity to take it, of course, but perhaps all of Europe's LNG terminals combined could take it.
I don't think anyone is claiming it was deliberate. It's possible it went out of control. Seemingly the Tu-141 surveillance drone is Soviet built, but Ukraine is the only known operators of them. Given that it's a surveillance drone, the mere fact that it crashed anywhere indicates a severe malfunction.
India accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan a few days ago. It wasn't armed and didn't cause any damage, somehow it got launched during routine maintenance. While the Pakistanis are obviously not happy about it, even they recognise that it wasn't a deliberate act - which is good, because they're two nuclear powers with a history of wars with each other. Point being that mistakes, however unfortunate, happen.
If it was indeed an accident, then accidents happen, If on the other hand, it was hint, then you can be sure that it was poorly received.
I appreciate that NATO can’t get involved but what would it take for the UN to get involved in delivering humanitarian aid to besieged cities.
Just food and medication.
I guess a vote which would be vetoed by Russia and its allies?
No he doesn't. Making clear your intentions allows your enemy to proceed with certainty and without fear. Putin might not have invaded Ukraine at all had he been unsure of the response.
Interesting link, are the Russians still operating such battlegroups in this conflict though? I wouldn't be surprised if many of them were already destroyed. This note was also of interest
"The lack of infantry causes BTG commanders to prefer to isolate urban infantry strongpoints for prolonged sieges instead of assaulting to reduce them in the mode of Grozny (1999) or the American clearance of Fallujah (2004). BTGs address this shortfall by incorporating light-infantry militia from the local area."
And something that occurred to me last night, another reason why Russia is trying to raise troops from other countries is because it looks like no Ukrainians-Russians outside the Donbas areas have volunteered to assist them like they did in the Donbas/Crimea/Georgia/Chechnya before. Which will be quite significant for future Russian plans for the area.
Some bang off it regardless
When Berlin was besieged there was the Berlin airlift. If Western countries did this for Ukranian countries would Russia dare to attack western Humanitarian supplies.
That will depend very much on what the Russians at home are told...and going by present media sharing its quite likely to be the opposite of the truth. Having said that, it must be getting harder and harder to keep the cover up going.
Actually worth reading, someone pointing out there is a major difference between the West and other civilisations that exist currently:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin
I was actually wondering this as well...
Would not come as a surprise to them though.....the Russians destroyed enough Mosques in Syria too.
The world did not ask or expect the US to mess with Vietnam or Iraq and Afghanistan was their choice, and probably the right one. They made a rod for their own backs on all fronts, from terrorism to ME 'interventions, because of their ludicrous support for Israel. Had they forced a two state solution on Israel long ago, when they should have, the world and the ME would have been a totally different place, IMO.
I do agree with you on Europe standing on it's own feet militarily. Globalisation has been a bit of a disaster in that it virtually extinguished the notion of self-sufficiency in almost all areas, something I have thought was a massive mistake for decades, particularly the enabling of China.
Lots of the Oligarchs managed to overcome the sanctions in the U.K. and evade the sanctions. Apparently, £1.5 billion was moved from the U.K. before the sanctions hit.
Very disappointing stuff!
Quite a few Russian based commentators are saying that apart from a few pro-war zealots and some people mumbling about the economy, most Russians don't seem to give much of a damn and actually seem quite oblivious to the whole thing. The propaganda itself is simple to maintain, they did it for decades during the Soviet era (and had none of Putin's sophisticated media apparatus).
Good guy Armenia
I wonder how so many of those on the "Christian" right (mostly Americans) who championed Putin as a bastion of protecting Christianity and keeping the west white feel about him sending 16k Muslims from the middle east to slaughter white Christian civilians in Europe. Radio silence you betcha.
Not a hope in hell would they attack any arms depots in Poland for instance, but once they cross the border then its game on regardless of who is transporting it.
Up to the UN to get it's sh*t together. The League of Nations fell asunder, the United Nations could go the same way if this war escalates further. Vetoes are all well & good until they are exercised by the main protagonist. Up to the UN to find a way around this.
On related matter where is the UAE in all this? It was noted that they sided with Russia, Belarus, North Korea in a UN vote on condemnation. There's a lot of 'funny money' in UAE - a long hard look needs to be taken there. And plenty of Irish working in finance in UAE.
Excellent article, thanks for posting
Give it s while, like when they start drinking Koke Kola
I believe Russia via its proxies in the Georgia '08 war has its paws on a small stretch of territory that critical pipe runs through on its way to Turkey. Keep an eye on that. Sabotage is a distinct possibility.
Azerbaijan could indeed go a long way towards undermining Russia's energy coercion strategy, but Russia won't make it easy.
Very different era and that's one of Putin's miscalculations - he's old school and hasn't appreciated the full impact of social media and citizen reporting that has developed in the last 20 years. A new generation knows that information is available and word will be seeping back to Russian mothers and families.
How are the overseas weapons getting into Ukraine?
I know where they got the idea
They must feel confident too that Turkey won't let anything happen to them
They already have Baikal which is pretty decent
The UN is hobbled because Russia is permanent member and can veto
UAE are a bit funny, they see to be on the fence here a bit, but at least they are opened up the oil reserves to reduce global prices
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