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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Brussels Sprout

Mod Note:

If you're new here, please read the charter carefully before posting, especially the guidelines in posting links in lieu of arguments and being able to subtantiate the points you're making. If you're posting here because you've been banned from posting on this topic in other forums, think carefully before you post. Continuing in the same vein is likely to yield the same results.

Threadbanned:

@olestoepoke

@bobowen

@[Deleted User]

@[Deleted User]

@mcsean2163

@CalamariFritti

There hasn't been a thread on this topic in this forum. There's a very active one in the Current Affairs/IMHO forum but easily 80% of the posts in it are posters taking pot shots at each other and not debating the topic. It's become increasingly difficult to wade through the posts there to read anything meaningful.

The current situation is as follows:

In recent weeks Russia has moved somewhere in the region of 130k troops and military hardware to the northern, eastern and southern borders of Ukraine
Putin has issued a list of 9 demands to NATO including that Ukraine never be allowed to join as a member and that NATO withdraws troops from existing NATO members that border Russia.
NATO has outright rejected these demands
NATO has warned that an attack by Russia on Ukraine is imminent
Russia has denied that they plan on any attack even as they accumulate more and more troops on the border - which they say are there for war games.
Citing intelligence of an imminent attack many western countries have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine. the USA is moving their diplomatic staff from Kiev to the western city of Lviv
World leaders have been flying in to meet both Putln and the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy in recent days and weeks
Earlier this week Russia announced that they were going to some remove troops from the border region.
The USA have said that in actual fact even more Russian troops have arrived
In the past 24 hours there have been cyber attacks, serious shelling within Ukraine and diplomatic expulsions
Joe Biden has claimed an attack will happen in the next few days
Anthony Blincken has said that they expect some form of fals flag attack to be carried out by Russia as a pretext for attacking Ukraine
Vladimir Putin has suggested that western claims are hysterical and has continued to state that Russia do not wish to attack Ukraine

I think that's about where we're at. I tried to stick to the facts as best as I could.

Personally I have gone backwards and forwards on whether I thought an attack would happen. Today my feeling is that there is now so much momentum that something is going to happen. I'm not 100% sure of what that will be. Events seem to be accelerating and I don't think they're going to slow down.

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[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118760911#Comment_118760911

There is a massive difference between game crop and human food.

The moisture content alone is a massive factor. I remember measuring moisture content of Barley, in the brewery, and having it fail never mind milling grain for bread

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118760473#Comment_118760473

Just for clarity, the point Danzy made, which I responded to, was that given how Russia have performed militarily in Ukraine, they would have no chance against a NATO country. My point in response to that is that Russia is modernising its military but ultimatley the only real way to get an army ready for war is to engage in war itself and they will learn from their mistakes. Your response to this is that they haven't changed their tactics since the 1950s and they won't change now and so they would face anihilation. That is just not true.

Your point about their equipment modernisation is not really relevant to your point at all. Moreover, I have already made those points about the failings in their equpiment modernisation failures earlier in the thread:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118683635#Comment_118683635

There has been a massive doctrinal change in the Russian armed forces. They have gone from a mostly conscript army to a mostly professional army. What seems to be emerging now is that potentially the first wave of troops were largely conscripts, which might explain the large numbers of early losses, but what is also clear is that they have been working on their tactical approach. They have tried, essentially, to be more like the US army with stand off bombings of important infrastructure, capturing important sites with special forces and swift and precise troop movements. That is a huge doctrinal change from the old soviet doctrine, glibly summariesed by Stalin as "quantity is a quality in its own right" i.e. overwhelming numbers of troops steam rolling over their opponents.

They changed their doctrine and tactics massively and were hoping to be able to recreate the US style of assault. However, they failed due to a number of problems. They lack the numbers of precision guided bombs to destroy all key infrastructure, they failed (or chose not to due to time constraints) establish air dominance before moving troops in, they led with conscripts who were lied to about the reasons why they were going in, and those lies were exposed fairly quickly which was demoralising, their communications network wasn't adequate and they didn't adequately prepare for Urban warfare, mistakenly believing that it wouldn't come to that.

As against that, the suggestion that the invasion has been a military failure is not accurate either. They have achieved their successes in the south, moving up from Crimea and establishing effective control of most of the territory up to Kherson, along the Dnieper and are nearly fully linked with the breakaway regions. There are hold outs in Kherson and Mariupol etc, which could turn into Leningrad style sieges, but overall they have been successful there. Their drive to Kyiv has been quite successful, albeit bloody, too, and they haven't yet launched a full scale attack on the city, although they might do so in the coming days. Their main failures have been in the Kharkiv /Sumy region, where it is possible that the Russian attack was the weakest to begin with, as they calculated that Karkiv would be pro Russian.

It is also the case that, while it is difficult to mention given that there have been substantial civilian casualties to date, the Russian troops have been largely restrained in terms of targetting civilians to date. That may change, and they are certainly engaging in some indiscriminate attacks, but that is the reality of war. The Americans call it "Collateral Damage". Also, you can't account for human error or soldiers reacting emotionally rather than rationally to attacks. The fact that there are indiscriminate attacks on civilians does not mean that Putin ordered it, or even that a general or commander in the field did.

So at the end of the Ukrainian invasion, whenever that is, the Russian military will assess what went right, what went wrong, and will change it. Most of the problems, other than establishing aerial superiority can be fixed with relative ease. It is also the case that if they were to attack a NATO country, they would not be operating off the same mistaken assumptions as they were in the Ukrainian invasion.

Their tactics are massively different to Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, a communist government came to power. The Soviet Army came to Kabul, largely unopposed, and successfully carried out a coup. After that, it was a counter insurgency operation, in conjunction with the communist government of Afghanistan's army, over a decade. If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is to be believed, the military losses for Ukraine in the last few weeks are larger than the losses for the whole decade of Afghanistan. But the civilian casualties are substantially lower.

The only similarity between Ukraine and Chechnya is that in Chechnya, when the regular army was considered to be inadequate, they then proceeded to level Grozny. The assumption is that the Russian army will try to do the same with Kyiv, Kharkiv etc if they fail to take them in the next few days/weeks. However, the assumption that they will revert back to their old 1950s style doctrine, and the fact that they did so in 2008 does not mean that their doctrine and tactics haven't changed since the 1950s. If anything, what we are seeing is a dramatic change in their tactics, but that those tactics are not as successful as was hoped.

monseiur

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118760631#Comment_118760631

Just butting in here for a minute. I've been reading this with interest It's worth bearing in mind that the very first casualty of war is THE TRUTH Zelensky was a comedian of sorts, worked on TV, is very media savvy as he has shown over the last 2 weeks but as he gets more desperate he will tend to overstep the mark and in the process may lose the veneer of credibility. (The hospital bombing is an example) He was/is a populist leader, neither a politican or soldier, who lacks the complex political brain required especially in the predicment he and his people are in at present. His lack of political shrewdness will come more to the fore when it comes to peace talks, negotations etc. and that day will come... eventually. All we can hope for is that he is sorrounded by good professional people otherwise the Ukranians are doomed. Zelensky is not the only ''media creation'' involved in politics in Ukraine, I note that one of the Klitschko brothers (professional boxers) is a city mayor. Ukraine will, probably, lose this battle but will, in the long term, win the war but the cost will be colossal in terms of lives lost, people displaced and destruction to infrastructure etc.

Brussels Sprout

Roman Abramovich has finally been sanctioned by the UK government. Most tweets I have seen about this are heavily focused on the ramification for Chelsea (who he owns) but obviously that's only one part of his life and one part of his fortune. I wonder did he manage to flog all of his properties in London in time, for example?

I've seen it said that he's particularly close to Putin but nobody really knows. I'd like to think that he is and that this is one more blow to Putin.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761615#Comment_118761615

Well maybe Zelensky as a non politician might be more open to input there but from who exactly... a professional peacetime politician who served as PM for years beforehand would hardly have any more relevant experience would he?

I think the truth was already a casualty before Russia even invaded. Now we have the first actual casualties.

According to the Russians the building was empty and housed Ukranian nationalists (not sure how both of those statements can be true)...

Seems strange to jump in to make that comment about Zelensky overstepping the mark... but not, the actual attack on the hospital which wounded and appeared to have sadly killed innocent civilians?

At least three people were killed, including a young girl, in an attack on a children's hospital in Mariupol in southern Ukraine, local officials said. Officials had previously given a toll of 17 injured, including doctors, in the attack on children's and maternity hospital in the besieged city.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/0310/1285471-ukraine-russia/

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761704#Comment_118761704

He's had two weeks to get a lot out of the hands of the UK. Why did it take the UK so long?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761711#Comment_118761711

We have two sides here. One is telling outlandish lies. Just absolute whoppers in order for them to defend the indefensible. They're so afraid of the actual truth getting out that they've effectively banned any independent reporting of the invasion on pain of 15 year prisons sentences.

The other side literally has the world's media moving around inside their country free to report. They have been shown to fudge the truth at times but nothing extraordinary and they've been open to corrections when called out after the fact (e.g. Snake Island).

On the scale of lies the first side are operating in the 8-9 range and the other are in the 2-3 range.

It's very interesting when people's inclination is to completely skim over the first side's assault on the truth and instead choose to be jump all over the fudges of the other side. I can only think that it's some kind of contrarian impulse to criticise the side who everyone else seems to be backing but I don't know.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761754#Comment_118761754

Because of Tory donations of course; those donations had to buy something after all as you don't give hundreds of thousands to a political party for fun...

Sam Russell

All the UK Gov needed to do was to advise that any purchasers of any assets previously held by those on the sanctions list was that all transfers from those on the list would be deemed to not have happened and those assets would be seized as if the purported transaction had not occurred. Any funds transferred would be treated as if money laundered.

This would have the effect of freezing all assets instantly. This could apply to any assets that are in shell companies that are designed to hide the beneficial ownership - with the proviso that once the beneficial ownership was ascertained, then the assets would be treated appropriately.

Of course the Tories are conflicted in this, because they have accepted 'donations' from Russians, and have even appointed the son of a KGB operative to the House of Lords. They have yet to publish the report on Russian interference on the Brexit vote - conflicted indeed.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761711#Comment_118761711

Its also a clear war crime. Speculation across several mediums that the Russians are deliberately using non precision weapons. One could call this state terrorism . They are attempting to terrorize Ukraine into submission. literally

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/597524-pentagon-indications-russia-using-dumb-bombs-in-ukraine

And yes as you pointed out - people died in the hospital bombing - Appalling

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762027#Comment_118762027

Yes, the Russians are accusing Ukranians of using millions of their citizens as 'human shields'. So if you are living in a city and don't flee, you are a human shield now according to the Russians.

There is no lie the Russians won't sink to and no lie so low someone won't come along here to "both sides" it or just deny it with weasel words.

Quin_Dub

Some of the lies are just so far beyond outrageous it's incredible.

Yesterday on the BBC you had Maria Butina (Russian Spy of NRA Infiltration fame) claiming that Russia were absolutely not bombing civilians and that in fact it was Ukraine bombing themselves.

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1501500941069164546?cxt=HHwWhIC95dHJs9YpAAAA

She also claimed that Zelensky was not in fact in Kyiv , but in hiding in another country - her proof being that the way he combs his hair has changed???

Strazdas

Reading a lot of Twitter threads, there seems to have been a misguided view across all of Russian society and their media that Ukraine was not a 'real' country, that even 30 years after independence it was divided into numerous rival factions and that they would never rally around one flag if they were invaded. This might explain the nuttiness of the invasion decision and the initial support for it - they genuinely thought Ukraine would collapse like a house of cards the moment they were invaded.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762306#Comment_118762306

That's pretty much what Putin said in his rambling speech just before the invasion. That basically Russia is really 'Greater' Russia and includes at the very least Ukraine and Belarus and anywhere the USSR ethnically cleansed with planted Russians probably.

Markcheese

Unfortunately you're probably half right , the Ukrainians,and Ukraine will suffer - the dumb kids in the Russian army will suffer - the general populace of Russia will suffer under continuous sanctions -

Europe and the Us only have to throw in a few guns and missiles ( and deal with high energy and food costs )

With Russia crippled and NATO resurgent the Us is free to shift their focus to south east Asia - and china's plan of allying with a strong Russia is sunk , wouldn't be surprised to see china pushing north in a decade or two..

Kingkong

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761754#Comment_118761754

I think the UK government gave him a 'professional courtesy' notice period!

I'm not hopeful on UK long term support for this disaster London and Russian wealth have very deep links

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762339#Comment_118762339

Victims of their own propaganda most likely. They've been ranting to themselves about Crimea since 2014 and probably the propaganda and lies that was being pumped out by Russian state TV since then became some sort of 'new reality' for them. It's a classic example of a country not knowing the first thing about its next door neighbour.

liamtech

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1501861898953891840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501861898953891840%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fdiscussion%2F2058195983%2Frussia%2Fp811

There it is in plain english -

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/top-russian-ukrainian-diplomats-meet-first-time-since-invasion-2022-03-10/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762278#Comment_118762278

At this point it is almost pointless to interact with agents of the Russian Federation. While im sure back channels remain open - every time a Russian Official speaks, they will

Deny this is their fault
Claim the Ukrainians are 'Genocidal and NAZI'
Deny the obvious targeting of Civilians
Accuse the west of 'Economic war'
Claim that civilian deaths are as a result of actions taken by the Ukrainians

Lavrov, is no different to Joachim von Ribbentrop at this point. And Maria Zakharova is Joseph Goebbels (frothing at the mouth, and talking nonsense during interactions with Foreign Journalists)

https://news.sky.com/video/spokesperson-clashes-with-sky-editor-12556670

Is there any real point in gracing this regime, publicly?

liamtech

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16063-russia-absconds-with-10bn-in-aircraft-in-response-to-eu-sanctions

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/?

The bad and the 'not so bad' - If reading correctly the Russians seem to be simply 'stealing' the aircraft (economic war etc etc )

But long term, they may have some problems RE the maintenance of said aircraft

ilkhanid

''Accuse the West of 'Economic War'''

Surely he means ''special economic operations''?

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762499#Comment_118762499

An awful lot of the planes are leased via Ireland , so their losses will be booked in Ireland - any idea where they're insured from ?

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762468#Comment_118762468

Beside the obligatory diplomatic back channels, no point whatsoever, and the sooner media stops platforming them and their proxies, the better for everyone. Including Russians themselves.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762278#Comment_118762278

I actually think this woman is a victim of Russian state brainwashing and thinks she is telling the truth. It shows how pervasive and widespread the brainwashing and propaganda must be - stating that Ukraine is bombing its own cities and thinking she's giving an accurate account of what is going on.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762515#Comment_118762515

Look, I know this forum expects more robust, expansive discussion and I hope this and my comment aren't nuked ... but ... bravo sir 👏

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762546#Comment_118762546

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/russian-state-airlines-not-helping-irish-lessors-recover-aircraft-1.4820685

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=a4deb54c-45c3-4131-bff7-2eac4a640dd1

The above seem to indicate that insurance is local within Russia. But that no cooperation will be forthcoming RE dealings with the Irish agencies - Short answer is i dont know - none of us do. Its insane - all diplomatic, economic, commercial norms are being broken before our eyes, and thats not even CONSIDERING the war.

And the response of the Russian Government is literal propaganda

zom

''Accuse the West of 'Economic War'''

EU is still buying thousands of tons of gas and oil. Hardly "Economic War"...

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761615#Comment_118761615

If only they had one of those politicians that has loads of experience with full blown invasions.

This is like people moaning about TDs not having enough pandemic experience.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762278#Comment_118762278

Jesus wept...

They really live on another planet

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762027#Comment_118762027

And to think some were happy nobody was killed because it might make Russia look bad ,I'm sure they could find something about Nato doing something bad to legimise the bombing

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761754#Comment_118761754

All that Russian money pumped into the Tory party had to pay for something.