I really don't think this is right on both counts (1. on Putin having decided that and 2. that NATO would not respond).
Nuclear is the threat, and to be honest he didnt even directly threaten it. Once you lose the threat its game over, if he uses Nukes the entire world including China will come down on him.
I think there is still that perception that Putin has lost his mind and is now suddenly capable of any kind of madness. Is he ruthless? Absolutely, was the war a serious miscalculation? Absolutely, but has he lost his mind and now him using nukes in Ukraine is a serious consideration, no way.
This invasion was not a moment of madness, there was a build up, a long one, in hindsight it looks like this was being planned for 2 years. It has gone horrible for him, he probably thought it would be at worst a slightly tougher version of Crimea.
I am not saying things could not escalate to that, but him using nukes without further escalation prior to it, no way.
I get that, but Putin - for all his faults - is pretty smart, and was the former head of the now FSB.
He understands perfectly well the existence of threats against his authority; and has acted accordingly. The idea that Putin can be taken out easily is absurd.
He's ridiculously protected; and he knows it.
There will be no direct intervention (but pretty much anything they can outside of that) until he invades a NATO country (I think he will be long gone before that) if he launches a nuke he is done and Russia will be isolated for decades.
Was uncle Albert in charge!?
Don't worry, there's still plenty more war to go for you to cheer on and get excited by all the loud bangs and fancy rockets. My apologies for being optimistic about peace talks and hoping for an end to this. I guess you 'win'. Well done. Maybe another hospital will get hit tomorrow *can't contain the excitement*
Even Hitler had popular support for a long time...the longer this goes on....the less he will have...and the more likely he will be overthrown/retired/taken out....it's how this kind of thing tends to play out eventually.
The economic sanctions are biting, the Russian bodies are piling up (or being cremated), there will be a heave ho, he is pissing off a lot of very rich and powerful Russians.
Yes, talk of biological weapons in Ukraine is nonsense - it's coming solely from the pro-Putin propaganda machine.
One analyst even predicted this last week, saying the Russian shysters would 'claim' they had discovered chemical or biological weapons inside Ukraine being readied for use to be dropped on Russia.
fuel, food etc. many reasons for the stalling have been given, all part of the ruse
There were no biological weapons found. The Ukrainians have bio labs, different thing.
Also, deliberately running out of fuel as a tactical move, anyone who believes that is a muppet
He holds all the cards inasmuch as he knows there will be no direct intervention from the west because they're looking at him and wondering just how far the cheese has actually slid off of his cracker.
He can launch a tactical nuke without fear of having ICBM's launched at Russia by NATO but doing so will likely result in the ground opening up beneath his feet which is the part I think he is too delusional to recognize.
To clarify, he believes he is in control of the situation to the point where he could launch a tactical nuke but I don't think he's competent enough to recognize that while that may win him the battle for Kiev it would be his ultimate undoing.
I think this war will galvanise and create a sense of solidarity (excuse pun) amongst all the Eastern European countries. I always felt there were simmering tension between these countries since WW2. Obviously Poland fared very badly after Germany & Russian agree to carve it up. Other countries joined the Axis and sent their forces to fight the Russians alongside the Germans (e.g. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria). They now have a common cause (help Ukraine) and a common active enemy.
Do you seriously think Putin cares about what Russians think? Look at what he's doing to protestors and the democratic fabric of the country.
Putin only cares about Putin - and his actions and legacy.
Not even those closest to Putin knew about the "special military operation" / a.k.a. invasion, of Ukraine.
This is one crazy guy doubling down on some maniacal interpretation of history.
Mcdonalds implemented a No Fry Zone in Russia
If he does that he may as well throw himself into the nearest river, Kiev is a city held dear by a lot of Russians and those in the Balkan States. He knows he has to take Kiev without damaging it and that's a massive problem for him.
Possibly, but and it's only IMHO, but if the Russians did that, literally game over for them economically and politically and internationally. The sanctions now would look like a birthday present* The Iron Curtain would go back up again whether they wanted it or not. The Chinese would back right off and there's no love lost there anyway and the West's custom is worth far more to them anyway. No imports nor exports. Very limited or no Russians beyond their borders. No economic exchange of any sort. Markets and movements closed. Lockdown, like they did with East Berlin back in the day, so some karma there. A pariah that would make look North Korea look like an honoured guest.
*note how McDonalds closed their cafes, but kept staff on pay. Now that's decent, but the cynic in me thinks they're doing that just as much because they think the sanctions and war won't last so long and they want to keep their trained staff and keep them loyal for the comeback.
And having failed (so far), Putin can rally the population behind him that "the West" is responsible for all their hardship (past and now present), as he has been saying for many years now, and exploit that as a means to aggravate for war against the West.
I generally hate analogies with Nazi Germany and the post-WWI experience; but this is pretty similar.
Apologies for only posting tweets, I wish I could contribute more constructively.
Surely the more desperate he gets the more dangerous he becomes.
I'd be more worried about some radioactive disaster from one of the nuclear power plants that he's been meddling with.
done on purpose of course and then blamed on some Ukrainian counter attack.
I suggest NATO declare war on Ukraine and just invade the country and occupy it to 'protect Europe' from some radioactive disaster
Sorry Putin we mean you no harm, but you're just in the way.
It would surely destroy him at home as well. Even the Russian public would be beyond appalled at him dropping a nuclear weapon on their next door neighbour.
Some people really need to keep up with the news instead of reposting hours behind and days behind news here like it's breaking
Destroying a maternity / paediatric hospital
pictures are horrific
animals
What you have described is the opposite of holding all the cards.....
It's someone desperate who will you think (I don't) to mix metaphors possibly attempt a final throw of the dice in a desperate attempt to "win" employ the use of nukes.
George Orwell Road anyone...
Because Poland has been f****d around by just about everybody in its history. Germany invaded and pillaged as did Russia. It has been screwed and let down by east and west. BTW it is currently playing a blinder in helping Ukraine, a country that it would not have a terrific relationship with.
Spot on sadly.
The b*stard holds all the cards and is acting with impunity already and the more desperate he gets the more likely he is to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
The problem for him is that every possible screw would be turned in retaliation bar open warfare from the west and the "this is a liberation mission" rhetoric he's been selling to the Russian people would be rendered null and void at that point and he'd likely have his head on a pike the day after he used a tactical nuke.
Biological weapons evidence the Russians found today seems to be a prelude to give Putin the moral clause to send in a nuclear missile into Kiyv and take out all his enemies at once, this will probably occur shortly after peace talks break down tomorrow, he has kept troops out of Kiyv by enacting an operational pause, many believed the 40 mile convoy got bogged down but I didnt, its tactical
Reports that Russian battleship that attacked Snake Island has been sunk.
To be honest, I think this is the most ridiculous suggestion I have seen yet. Between that and the religious nutters, I'd say the residents would like the embassy and everyone else to **** off.
"Quite reasonable" what are you on about?...how in any way is the use of nukes reasonable?!
If they use a nuke or chemical weapons imo NATO and EU will respond imo, big time, there are lines.
If he nuked Kiev...I doubt it will destroy resolve quite the opposite.
If he does that effectively the sanctions cannot be lifted. Just wouldn't happen. Not for a decade at least.
I don't think he needs to do the nuke anyway, everyone knows the threat at this stage.
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