It's entirely possible - and actually, quite reasonable - that Putin has decided that a "tactical" nuclear strike against Ukraine would be warranted, perhaps with a small missile, perhaps targeting Kiev.
This has the dual advantage of:
a) destroying Ukrainian resolve in fighting against the Russians
b) deterring NATO and the EU; as Putin can claim that his nuclear threats are serious
Nevermind the chemical threats, which are small. If Putin were to do the above, NATO and the EU would not respond. They simply wouldn't risk escalation of nuclear war.
These nuclear threats are far more likely, it seems. Especially given the calculus above, and particularly because Russia is losing to a far greater extent than Putin and his vile generals originally believed.
Not diminishing anything just saying you've paid very little attention to the world if you think nothing like this has happened since the Nazis.
We're all revolted by what's happening, there's no need to argue about that
Ukraine will never accept being a Russian vassal in perpetuity. Not after this war Russia has waged. I can't even imagine the amount of bitterness the average Ukrainian must be feeling towards the government of Russia today. You cannot beat a people into true submission. If anything, beating is wholly counterproductive to the aim. We know this from our own history.
What we are seeing here is an attempted punishment beating of a country and the death throes of the Russian empire as it desperately seeks to maintain a dwindling sphere of influence. After this, they will be an international pariah for years to come and their economy will tank further. Any enrichment that comes from subduing Ukraine will be outweighed by the ultimate cost.
Just because the UN won't recognise it...it doesn't mean it won't happen...like Crimea.
I thought the negotiations were going well and nearly there ????
Or have we all missed something.
Yeah, would be a total pyrrhic victory. This bloody and horrendous misadventure will seal the fate of Putin and he has destroyed the economy, industry, the reputation of Russia and the myth that Russia Is a superpower.
He is already declaring Russia are in an economic war with the west (and that they struck unprovoked) - (yet the Ukraine war remains 'Special Military Operation)
In terms of Generals that may move against him (looking less likely at this stage imho) - i think the west needs to be very careful to give them an off ramp. Yes they have partook in a travesty (vile is not a strong enough word for bombing a maternity hospital) - But we should concentrate on stating unequivocally that Putin is responsible for this
Yep it’s worth googling escalation ladder and check out the images.
Nipping the escalation in the bud at an early stage looks like the best way to prevent even more horror than what’s happening now.
Channel 4 News tonight had that Irish reporter travelling with a 12 year old Ukrainian girl and her grandmother for part of their journey to Hungary and then onward to Ireland. The girl's parents were separated with dad living in Russia. The girl phoned the dad from the train to let him know how they were getting on. After a minute the reporter introduced himself and asked what people in Russian think of this war. Long awkward silence eventually followed by "Sorry it's a bad connection.". When the question was repeated, the dad said "We can't talk about this...we are being persecuted."
(Edited to add clip)
What is there to understand? It is a huge country. They won't roll over imo.
I honestly don't believe it will come to that, if Putin does fire a nuke (I am not convinced the generals around him will allow it) there will be almost immediate retaliation, Russia would be a wasteland.
On RT today they had a reporter show all the stacks of weapons surrendered by the 200 Ukrainian troops. At pains to show they came from the US. They mentioned that the troops "thought better to surrender than engage"
But my favourite bit was "the troops were all released and sent back to their families once they signed documents promising not to engage in any more fighting"
True story.
They oddly enough didn't mention the bombing of the chuldrens hospital
Exactly - that isn't peace talks its demands and them saying you concede or we keep bombing you, it's asking for unconditional surrender
Well it appears the Russians have managed to occupy and quell kherson relatively well. Victory for Putin might not mean invading/occupying the whole country, just what he can get and the prize of Kiev. Then install a puppet and the rest of the country is his without needing to fight his way through. Belarus is basically Russia and all it takes is a puppet government.
Love it:-
"Residents of Orwell Road in Dublin, where the Russian embassy is located, are set to be consulted on a proposal to change the name to Independent Ukraine Road."
I see they have been getting copies of the green book
It's hard to see the Ukrainians accepting that. All that gives them is an unprotected country so that Vlad can come back and finish the job when his troops are more up to snuff.
There is the slight issue of UN Security Council resolution ES-11/1 regarding Russia's invasion, which amongst other things declares
"Reaffirming that no territorial acquisition resulting from the threat or use of force shall be recognized as legal,
...
1. Reaffirms its commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recogni zed borders, extending to its territorial waters;
2. Deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine in violation of Article 2 (4) of the Charter;
3. Demands that the Russian Federation immediately cease its use of forceagainst Ukraine and to refrain from any further unlawful threat or use of force against any Member State;
4. Also demands that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders;
5. Deplores the 21 February 2022 decision by the Russian Federation related to the status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the Charter;
6. Demands that the Russian Federation immediately and unconditionally reverse the decision related to the status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine;"
I really don't understand this "fighting in years" thing.
Putin wants a nuclear war with NATO and Europe, but to manufacture that war slowly - over time, and believably to portray him as not the aggressor.
If he does do that it will be the end of Russia as well. I honestly don't think he is stupid enough to do that.
As you say 'victory'.
I can't see them occupying Ukraine long term, Ukrainian people have shown they won't accept it. They will likely continue to fight back guerilla style for years if needs be.
Reports that the Zaporizhzhia NPP monitoring system has now gone off line, coincidence only a few hours after Chernobyl?
The Ukrainians are operating on interior lines of communication, so it's easier for them to swap troops around and redeploy between different positions than it is for the Russians, which hopefully will help with rotating units in and out of the front line too.
Unfortunately, for Ukraine I only see the one outcome. Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, recognition of the 'independence' of Donetsk and Luhansk, legally binding commitments of no NATO or EU and the dilution of government with pro Russian representatives.
The only thing I see Ukraine getting is keeping the current President and some ministers.
What's left of Ukraine after partition will be a Russian vassal.
Without miracles that's the only way I can see this ending.
Is there any way the poles or any other countries could "sell" a few migs to the Ukrainians
Better have a cover story, just in case.
Makes sense for them not to concede anything at that stage, especially if a) they feel like they're advancing and b) it gives room for Lavrov to manoeuvre.
Though old Sergei is a mad bastard also, so who knows.
It's pretty obvious at this stage.
Putin cannot sail off to the south of France after this escapade.
This is his do or die mission. How it ends, is unsure - but is he capable of manufacturing the circumstances to portray himself as the ultimate defender of Russia against the "enemy abroad" - and use nuclear weapons to effectively end the US and Europe; I think the answer to that question is yes.
The only question that remains is whether the Generals will accept his decision.
He is the Commander in Chief of the Russian forces. Sure, the Generals could reject his demand for nuclear war, but they are just as guilty as him in executing this disgusting war against Ukraine - and so have nothing to lose, either.
I cannot see those objectives as being satisfactory. At best, it's like a boxing match where Russia won the round on points, but feels like it has to get a knockout. So it can sit in the corner with its trainer for a few years, get a pep talk on strategy, get a couple of lacerations gauzed and then go again.
Russia appears to be slowly grinding out a 'victory'. If the Ukrainians can get them bogged down even more, then Russia's demands could soften. At the moment it's looking like Russia's demands are too much for the Ukrainian leadership, so war continues. There are fewer reports of Russian casualties/materiel loss in the last 36 hours. It appears they've changed tactics and not engaged the Ukrainian forces as directly as before. Probably why we're seeing more civilian targets being hit.
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