He is already declaring Russia are in an economic war with the west (and that they struck unprovoked) - (yet the Ukraine war remains 'Special Military Operation)
In terms of Generals that may move against him (looking less likely at this stage imho) - i think the west needs to be very careful to give them an off ramp. Yes they have partook in a travesty (vile is not a strong enough word for bombing a maternity hospital) - But we should concentrate on stating unequivocally that Putin is responsible for this
Yeah, would be a total pyrrhic victory. This bloody and horrendous misadventure will seal the fate of Putin and he has destroyed the economy, industry, the reputation of Russia and the myth that Russia Is a superpower.
I thought the negotiations were going well and nearly there ????
Or have we all missed something.
Just because the UN won't recognise it...it doesn't mean it won't happen...like Crimea.
Ukraine will never accept being a Russian vassal in perpetuity. Not after this war Russia has waged. I can't even imagine the amount of bitterness the average Ukrainian must be feeling towards the government of Russia today. You cannot beat a people into true submission. If anything, beating is wholly counterproductive to the aim. We know this from our own history.
What we are seeing here is an attempted punishment beating of a country and the death throes of the Russian empire as it desperately seeks to maintain a dwindling sphere of influence. After this, they will be an international pariah for years to come and their economy will tank further. Any enrichment that comes from subduing Ukraine will be outweighed by the ultimate cost.
Not diminishing anything just saying you've paid very little attention to the world if you think nothing like this has happened since the Nazis.
We're all revolted by what's happening, there's no need to argue about that
It's entirely possible - and actually, quite reasonable - that Putin has decided that a "tactical" nuclear strike against Ukraine would be warranted, perhaps with a small missile, perhaps targeting Kiev.
This has the dual advantage of:
a) destroying Ukrainian resolve in fighting against the Russians
b) deterring NATO and the EU; as Putin can claim that his nuclear threats are serious
Nevermind the chemical threats, which are small. If Putin were to do the above, NATO and the EU would not respond. They simply wouldn't risk escalation of nuclear war.
These nuclear threats are far more likely, it seems. Especially given the calculus above, and particularly because Russia is losing to a far greater extent than Putin and his vile generals originally believed.
If he does that effectively the sanctions cannot be lifted. Just wouldn't happen. Not for a decade at least.
I don't think he needs to do the nuke anyway, everyone knows the threat at this stage.
"Quite reasonable" what are you on about?...how in any way is the use of nukes reasonable?!
If they use a nuke or chemical weapons imo NATO and EU will respond imo, big time, there are lines.
If he nuked Kiev...I doubt it will destroy resolve quite the opposite.
To be honest, I think this is the most ridiculous suggestion I have seen yet. Between that and the religious nutters, I'd say the residents would like the embassy and everyone else to **** off.
Reports that Russian battleship that attacked Snake Island has been sunk.
Biological weapons evidence the Russians found today seems to be a prelude to give Putin the moral clause to send in a nuclear missile into Kiyv and take out all his enemies at once, this will probably occur shortly after peace talks break down tomorrow, he has kept troops out of Kiyv by enacting an operational pause, many believed the 40 mile convoy got bogged down but I didnt, its tactical
Spot on sadly.
The b*stard holds all the cards and is acting with impunity already and the more desperate he gets the more likely he is to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
The problem for him is that every possible screw would be turned in retaliation bar open warfare from the west and the "this is a liberation mission" rhetoric he's been selling to the Russian people would be rendered null and void at that point and he'd likely have his head on a pike the day after he used a tactical nuke.
Because Poland has been f****d around by just about everybody in its history. Germany invaded and pillaged as did Russia. It has been screwed and let down by east and west. BTW it is currently playing a blinder in helping Ukraine, a country that it would not have a terrific relationship with.
George Orwell Road anyone...
What you have described is the opposite of holding all the cards.....
It's someone desperate who will you think (I don't) to mix metaphors possibly attempt a final throw of the dice in a desperate attempt to "win" employ the use of nukes.
Destroying a maternity / paediatric hospital
pictures are horrific
animals
Some people really need to keep up with the news instead of reposting hours behind and days behind news here like it's breaking
It would surely destroy him at home as well. Even the Russian public would be beyond appalled at him dropping a nuclear weapon on their next door neighbour.
Surely the more desperate he gets the more dangerous he becomes.
I'd be more worried about some radioactive disaster from one of the nuclear power plants that he's been meddling with.
done on purpose of course and then blamed on some Ukrainian counter attack.
I suggest NATO declare war on Ukraine and just invade the country and occupy it to 'protect Europe' from some radioactive disaster
Sorry Putin we mean you no harm, but you're just in the way.
Apologies for only posting tweets, I wish I could contribute more constructively.
And having failed (so far), Putin can rally the population behind him that "the West" is responsible for all their hardship (past and now present), as he has been saying for many years now, and exploit that as a means to aggravate for war against the West.
I generally hate analogies with Nazi Germany and the post-WWI experience; but this is pretty similar.
Possibly, but and it's only IMHO, but if the Russians did that, literally game over for them economically and politically and internationally. The sanctions now would look like a birthday present* The Iron Curtain would go back up again whether they wanted it or not. The Chinese would back right off and there's no love lost there anyway and the West's custom is worth far more to them anyway. No imports nor exports. Very limited or no Russians beyond their borders. No economic exchange of any sort. Markets and movements closed. Lockdown, like they did with East Berlin back in the day, so some karma there. A pariah that would make look North Korea look like an honoured guest.
*note how McDonalds closed their cafes, but kept staff on pay. Now that's decent, but the cynic in me thinks they're doing that just as much because they think the sanctions and war won't last so long and they want to keep their trained staff and keep them loyal for the comeback.
If he does that he may as well throw himself into the nearest river, Kiev is a city held dear by a lot of Russians and those in the Balkan States. He knows he has to take Kiev without damaging it and that's a massive problem for him.
Mcdonalds implemented a No Fry Zone in Russia
Do you seriously think Putin cares about what Russians think? Look at what he's doing to protestors and the democratic fabric of the country.
Putin only cares about Putin - and his actions and legacy.
Not even those closest to Putin knew about the "special military operation" / a.k.a. invasion, of Ukraine.
This is one crazy guy doubling down on some maniacal interpretation of history.
I think this war will galvanise and create a sense of solidarity (excuse pun) amongst all the Eastern European countries. I always felt there were simmering tension between these countries since WW2. Obviously Poland fared very badly after Germany & Russian agree to carve it up. Other countries joined the Axis and sent their forces to fight the Russians alongside the Germans (e.g. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria). They now have a common cause (help Ukraine) and a common active enemy.
He holds all the cards inasmuch as he knows there will be no direct intervention from the west because they're looking at him and wondering just how far the cheese has actually slid off of his cracker.
He can launch a tactical nuke without fear of having ICBM's launched at Russia by NATO but doing so will likely result in the ground opening up beneath his feet which is the part I think he is too delusional to recognize.
To clarify, he believes he is in control of the situation to the point where he could launch a tactical nuke but I don't think he's competent enough to recognize that while that may win him the battle for Kiev it would be his ultimate undoing.
There were no biological weapons found. The Ukrainians have bio labs, different thing.
Also, deliberately running out of fuel as a tactical move, anyone who believes that is a muppet
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