Every day hundreds of "experts" are predicting how this war will evolve, a new day brings a whole new avalanche of opinions. Truth is none of us know what Putin will do. But unlike many Ukrainians, we'll find out
In case it has not already been posted, a well conducted interview with a historian, John Mearsheimer.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine
Quite intense behind the scenes effort. The west is using Israel as the messenger. Meetings and phone calls. The latest seems to be something of a potential deal...
Ouch!
A Chinese tycoon who built a massive short position in nickel futures is facing billions of dollars in mark-to-market losses after the metal surged more than 170% in two days, according to people familiar with the matter.
And on Russian oil.
This presents a huge problem for the Russian media. How are they going to explain away a "special military operation" that goes on for weeks or months? It will quickly become evident to the Russian public that things must be going badly.
"I, Vladimir Putin, hereby super-duper pinky swear never to instruct the forces of the Russian Federation to conduct a 'special military operation' in the territory of Ukraine ever, ever again. For one year."
Likely it's mostly just where refined imported or partly processed imports start out from.
Could be because a few days ago a few Yanks I'm friends with on Facebook were doing a song and dance with something shared around about how BIDEN was still buying Russian oil. Sometimes people need to be handheld but I'm sure the same people after the giving out will now be saying "Sure it's hardly anything anyway"
Only 11% of global nickel production comes from Russia.
A corresponding increase in the price would not have been unexpected in a common sense world.
But it seems that the naked short sellers have been caught out by the decrease in supply.
You can't just shut it all down immediately. It will take time to source alternatives and to implement plans, especially for the EU.
I am surprised they get any to be honest.
America gets hardly any oil from Russia. And yet this is receiving lots of attention.
They won't gain by it but Putin's state of mind is the key. He won't want to be seen losing no matter the cost.
We're (EU) fighting a war against Russia and yet we continue to pay them $750m+ per day for gas. Plus there's the $300m of oil they sell daily.
I understand that Germany have gotten themselves into a bit of a bind with their short-sighted/stupid/dummkopf decommissioning of their nuclear reactors.
But we're paying the Russians so that they can continue killing Ukrainians, at the same time as we give Ukrainians the means to kill Russians. It's a total paradox.
There is it, US ban on oil, gas and coal from Russia
Yeah but it's like how you cheer for your club against the club up the road, your county (with players you'd usually be against) against the next county etc. Less glibly though, there's history, a lot of it. Trying to distil it into "positive" and "negative" would likely be a fool's errand, even if someone much smarter and educated than me was able to gather that much information.
What we're seeing is a reaction to their shared history, similar with how Finland and the Baltic states are reacting (though less so for obvious reasons). Remember what Germany did to Poland in the 2nd world war? Now consider that pretty much as quickly as they could they did everything they could to as quickly as possible join a group with Germany as a driving force (EU) and couldn't wait to join NATO. The people in all those countries know what it's like to live under the Russian yoke. The memories may have faded but culturally they know what's coming and what follows.
There is every chance. Give it a week. A week is a long time in this 12 day old war.
Obviously there will still be skirmishes in Russian held territory until they actually withdraw but I think he will sue for a quick negotiated peace and get the hell out.
Just checked on the Nickel price. In a day it adds 2000 Dollars to the price of an electric car.
No chance of a ceasefire.
Must be harder to keep them paid with the worthless Rouble now in shite !
Ukrainians capturing A LOT of equipment, their biggest arms supplier now seems to be Russia
The UK government has announced a plan to phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. EU and US plans too, even if US announcement is largely symbolic.
Yeah and I have been saying that I think we will see a ceasefire by end of this week. Cause and effect. He must be under massive pressure already.
I think Putin has to take Kyiv and possibly Odessa to save face. Then he will sue for peace and a negotiated withdrawal.
I really don't see what they gain from doing this. I know the ultimate goal is most likely to just take control and take all their gas/oil so leaving a nuclear wasteland doesn't really matter as long as supply lines can continue to be built. Launching a nuke would certainly draw some sort of a response, and there's a risk China would distance themselves too, possibly with sanctions. At the end of the day, a complete collapse of the Russian Federation would suit the Chinese down to the ground.
I think he has over time, with hubris and some level of decline, made progressively less sensible decisions. It was seen in how he never got behind plans by Mevdevev for an innovation park ten years ago. He couldn't grasp the benefit of long-term, slow release, science and intellectual investment, so instead Russian minds continued to emigrate.
In armchair general mode now that Covid is off the radar, would it not make sense for a European coalition to engage now with Moldova and arm it if necessary, and publicly, to put pressure on Russia to withdraw? I reckon if the path is minimal military involvement from the West, Russia will aim to retain most, if not all, of the coastal strip. They will put pressure on Kyiv then until a deal is 'struck' to take the country to the knacker yard in April or May. There has to be a real threat of Euro nations (not NATO) moving in if the situation does not improve, or if they plan to fully sandwich Kyiv and destroy the Ukranian leadership while annexing more of its coast. Furthermore, the politics of grain supply are now coming to the fore....
UK to phase out all Russian oil imports to UK this year, US announcement likely coming soon
In Riga on the Museum of Medicine opposite the Russian embassy
Good. Hopefully it's followed by a super-long thaw, keep the fuckers in the mud as long as possible
Was watching a panel show about the invasion. One of the experts believed that Putin will authorise the use of tactical nuclear weapons when (as it looks like it will) Russia is hopelessly bogged down in Ukraine or worse is losing.
Trading suspended on Nickel on the London Metal Exchange. Crazy scenes, nightmare if you make solar panels or electric cars.
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