I'm not so sure. Yes the Ukrainians almost certainly won't defeat the Russians militarily, they don't have to. They just have to make it costly enough and painful enough until external political factors force the Russians to stop the attack and withdraw. That's enough for Ukraine to claim the win.
The NVA/VC never defeated the US forces in Vietnam, but the US left all the same. In fact, one of the biggest tactical defeats that war, the Tet Offensive, turned out to be a victory strategically, because that was when a large proportion of U.S. society and news media became convinced that the war couldn't be won.
Anything that effects Russian thinking in a negative way - is a positive. Yes the French are more than likely not going to do anything, prudence demands that Russia monitor them. Divert some resources -
ANYTHING that effects the Russians even slightly is a good thing
Goodness me, I didn't realise the country was that close to going bankrupt until I saw that chart (can't happen soon enough IMO.....the "regime" deserves every single ounce of bad luck going and much more on top).
Plus he is sending Russian children out to the front lines. Kids of 16-17 in sh1tty uniforms with sh1tty equipment, surviving on sh1t rations while him and his gangster cronies run their country into the ground. Saw a thing about the corruption in Russia yesterday -- massive overpriced bids for major infrastructure projects going to his cronies. A line from it about the oligarchs stuck with me "they would waste 10 dollars to steal one." And they dress themselves up as patriots defending Russia? They are plundering its resources and wasting its youth.
Again, is there some issue with people not understanding the word "relatively"?
In the context of "The West" (which the Russian army was implied to potentially threaten in the conventional sense) 44m is a relatively small population.
I've just watched Threads again and now I'm moving on to The Day After. The American movie is like Dallas/Dynasty with Nuclear missiles. Threads is a bit like how it will actually be if it did happen. Obviously I'm enjoying a few beers. Lads, ya gotta chill sometime.😀
Later next week, I'll be onto Independence Day. Putin will be the Alien overlord. Similar eyes anyway!
It's disgusting, but it's war, what do you expect
I heard someone once say that WW1 was even more disastrous than it needed to be because it was 19th century tactics meeting 20th century technology, ergo the sides had to get in trenches because they hadn't quite figured out how to conduct open warfare with planes, machine guns and tanks able to mow down everything in sight.
By the same token, Stalingradesque tactics would be 20th century tactics meeting 21st century technology. You can't just pound a city, a world city no less, and do that for months. Not without serious consequences. The world can see what you're doing because there is an eye in almost everyone's pocket. The strained relationships that it would cause, and already is causing, with potential and former economic partners around the world, makes every shell fired a hit on your own domestic situation, as your country sinks deeper and deeper into recession and its credit rating goes in the shítter.
On the contrary, I think we may be witnessing the Russian state's will to prosecute this war cracking. And Ukraine's resolve hasn't budged.
This is one man's war - I don't believe the Russian military brass were or are behind it. Shogyu has looked like a bulldog with a mouthful of nettles the past few weeks. He's an army man and knows that taking orders from his President is his duty, but as I pointed out earlier in the thread, he's known to be a voracious reader of history, and is a far more intelligent man than Putin. He's also a soldier through and through, and it's likely he recognises this is a war with no upside for Russia. I can't remember where it's from, but some commentator said the other week "the last thing Russia needs is more land". It can barely govern what it has, and it's not going to hold down a country twice the size of Germany with a deeply hostile population armed by Nato.
The reports of a coup with him behind it (presumably from US intelligence, who have been pretty spot on let's be honest) are credible in my mind. Let's see how it plays out.
So the french did move the Charles de Gaulle carrier to off the coast of Romania in the black sea , which is a curious move in the current situation ,
Not delusional. I would accept that things are arguably dire - But the whole situation is bizarre.
before this conflict began i would have agreed - but i heard a quote yesterday on LBC from Professor Michael Clarke
'People Say Russia has a Large Modern Army. Its not exactly true; The part of Russia's army that is large, is not Modern. And the Modern part is not large. They have a lot of people in Uniform.'
Add to that some of the shambolic displays we have seen - and the fact their main convoy is completely bogged down. Nothing is certain at all.
Add to that the fact the Ukrainians have a huge tactical advantage - they know the terrain. And they have done nothing else for the past 10 days but prepare for this. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and their country. The Russians DO NOT KNOW why they are even there? Their morale is as bogged down as their Tanks
The situation is dire - but its not hopeless - and economic sanctions ARE A FRONT in this war.
IMHO
Unfortunately I think you are right although I keep getting hopeful. I think they will level every city unless the Ukrainians surrender and I don't know if they will.
pretty much, bowel cancer apparently...
Russians soldiers shooting them indiscriminately as they flee is worse in my opinion. Whatever about the psyche of person pressing a button and letting misses fly you have to be a particularly sick cnut to point a gun at a child and pull the trigger.
It would offer whoever replaces him with an opportunity to end it and blame the folly on Putin.
Could his Army even drive to the Polish border without stalling?
😆
Imagine what would happen if Putin died tomorrow from cancer? Would the war end?
This is the first genuine Refugee crisis in Europe since the break up of Yugoslavia.
It is crazy that Ukrainians went from the relative stability of Covid and social distancing and lockdowns to a war. From stuck in their houses for months to refugees.
of the arse hopefully
I am sorry, but this is delusional.
The Ukrainian army is vastly out-numbered in all aspects here while facing an opponent that is systematically destroying their country on a daily basis. While the Ukrainians have performed admirably and have given as good as they've got, the overwhelming Russian numbers will eventually just grind them down. Anything the Russians lose they can replace. Fuel, ammunition, men, equipment, planes, tanks, Russia have the capacity to make. Anything the Ukrainians lose in most cases won't be replaced and whatever the west is supplying is only a fraction of what is being lost on a daily basis. As long as Ukraine stands alone, it's only a matter of time until they are overwhelmed.
Just seeing Children killed by Russian bombs on BBC ten O clock news.
What a evil person Putin is!!
Russia is effectively defaulting at this stage - At the end of the day if some bond holders go under - Look it will impact the global financial system (to what extent i dont know)
What should be more important for Russia - is that no one will EVER purchase a bond from them again. Or lease them an aircraft - not the 'current' incarnation of Russia under putin
Mostly they work in global securities services - providing outsourced services to very large asset managers. Russia is pretty insignificant in the overall scheme of things.
Hopefully. But in the short term that means they'll hit Ukraine even harder and that's the heartbreaking part.
Though as the sanctions are coming from the west, I just wonder how far Putin can be pushed before he says Russia is now at war with all of Europe and the gloves are off.
Was watching something on Stalingrad earlier. The Russian tactics were to put in just the right amount of soldiers and firepower each time, to keep the Germans occupied. The Russians were lambs to the slaughter but ultimately it was to eventually lead to the full on assault of the entire red army.
Russia are believed to have put in about 150k troops and by the looks of things, they were their bottom of the barrel.
You'd wonder if what is happening is their Stalingradesque tactics, put in the minimum requirement to constantly wear down the defenses and then go full on at a later date.
What about all the irish people employed by the American Banks near the IFSC? Will they be okay?
I am still laughing at this btw -
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