I mean it could easily last for years if Russia refuse to withdraw and the West doesn't escalate to further help the Ukrainians. Or maybe Russia cuts its losses once it topples Kyiv and just holds the more symbolic parts of the country.
Granted it would no longer be a conventional war; but I'm not sure it's really a "conventional war" right now anyway.
Ukrainians farmers becoming one of the world's fastest growing armies
It was certainly talked about at the time, not least by Germans and German politicians and not just the Nazi party. The British were half and half about it, The Italians were against it, the American response was complicated, the French were jumping for joy at it and wanted more. After a while and a feeling that this was causing trouble down the line further treaties relaxed the terms. Even after the war, a relative of mine who was in immediate post war Germany noted that of the occupying forces, the British and the Americans were the most accepted, the Russians were feared(at first, but this eased off), but at the time the ones the Germans despised the most were the French.
That guy is a numpty of the highest order.
An empty corn flakes box would possess more gravitas and intelligence.
Remember him most for this gem:
Tbh I’ve stopped believing anything now from any side. These little video snippets with zero context should be taken with a pinch a salt.
They wouldn't get very far. No survival abilities, no technical abilities. Just a bunch of self serving pricks who relied on the average joe to carry the can. They'd all be dead inside 3 months.
Same way the Iraq war, Afghan wars and many other wars did.
Tone in the Russian press is beginning to change btw. There seems to be a growing sense that a lot of bad / negative stuff is happening, that the war is not going to plan and sanctions are starting to bite. The breezy talk from the first week of a limited "special military operation to protect the Donbass" with virtually no downsides for Russia is gone.
It is already impacting millions of people in the Middle East and North Africa:
Putin doesn’t care for the plebs. He has his agenda; to reestablish the Soviet Union at all costs
Russia are recommending a halt to exports and their food produce is feeding much of the world.
Just take a tiny example, Egypt, about half their calories come from the Ukraine.
100mn people. That's largely the story to at least some extent in a massive ring around Europe.
Say Putin stops and lets them decide to walk north to Europe.
I love the pic below:
😂
The text that goes with that rather hits the nail on the head; something like: One leader is afraid of everyone, the other is afraid of no one.
It's a certainty that Russia will hold East of the Dneiper for years and probably in perpetuity.
In reality it would still be a success for the west. A nice buffer zone that will keep the Russians bogged down in resistance fighting for years. Europe will be pumping Russian gas by next winter.
Indeed, Russia can also choose to cut off gas to Europe. It doesn't make much sense for them to do so, but hypothetically they can.
I suspect when the face saving exercise plays out and play out it will, it always does, that Ukraine's borders will be redrawn, Russia will get to keep the Donbas, Crimea and maybe some other parts, but otherwise feck off. Given Putin's stated claimed aim was to protect the Russians in the Donbas he cane also claim a great victory over 'Nazism'.
If you watch Winter on Fire you'll see how difficult it was to overthrow the Putin puppet in Ukraine when the local militia/police are on the payroll. And that was a people that really wanted changed and despised the leader of their country. Who pays the piper calls the tune.
Russia's citizens (even if they snapped out of their brainwashed fog) will not be able to drive any overthrow. It will have to come from the oligarchs, security services or even the army. The oligarchs while taking massive financial hits can still survive no doubt and fear might still trump all else. No point being a lot wealthier if you're dead.
So I think it will be down to disillusioned generals/the army or the security services. If their pay stops coming or becomes effectively worthless. Seeing how long North Korea can remain in it's current state doesn't make me think change will come too quick. But I remain ever hopeful.
I cannot see the Ukrainian people settling for this after all bloodshed
"Make no mistake, economically and tradewise this war is going to hurt Europe and the West (and the world), but it's going to hurt Russia much more."
I think we as citizens in the West need to be very clear minded about what that means for us here. It is easy at times like these for citizens to rally and call for the most draconian sanctions, but we must understand what they will mean for us. In a nutshell, it means a higher cost of living and reduced living standards, it means providing sanctuary to refugees for years.
Im not arguing that we shouldn't do these things, but if we call for these things, we then have no right to turn to our politicians with a surprised Pikachu face in six months time, wondering why food, fuel and other raw materials are much more expensive.
I wonder does Putin realise (or care) that sitting at a giant long table like that, with his advisors huddled at the far end, literally makes him look like a movie supervillain? Would a Russian in Russia look at that and go, "Yes, there sits a strong man. No sign of weakness in him at all."
Captured Ukrainian vehicles repurposed by the Russians, like here
Just posting this without comment. Make of it what you will bearing in mind the source.
Oh there'll be raised voices no doubt, but a sickening practicality will out in the end. It usually does. Plus the Ukrainians can offer free travel and welcome to those in those areas who want to leave and join them in Ukraine.
Yes indeed, was a good piece in the Guardian about this earlier. Politicians need to make people aware of this as much as possible.
The cutting of a gas is a small thing compared to the Fertilizer issue and especially a halt to grain exports.
That's a globe changing event.
The gas is just a problem.
Can i be the first to say this may be a piss take.
il get my coat.
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