The China angle is awkward as they have a need to avoid losing favour with both sides, one which feeds their massive trade surplus and the other who could irrationally threaten to cut off their energy. The extent and speed of the sanctions will make them very nervous.
Inadvertently this whole misadventure may lead to even less demand for Russian energy resources and other commodities. There is a report this morning about our food plan, for grain in particular, something that other countries may well look at.
China has been busy trying ring fence their energy needs and now Russia will be extremely dependent on China meaning they can get a decent price. I would like to the see the West saying to China unless you are openly working on a plan to stop this terror on Ukrainians we can no longer buy your tack.
this would be a better move than escalating through NATO.
Did anybody see the video where Zelensky trolls Putin by moving the mic out of the way with his hand?
Yeah! We should just allow the Ukrainians to be slaughtered and just provide nice posts on Social Media to them.
All the weapons will just prolong the war and lead to more death. Russia will sacrifice any amount of tanks and troops to achieve its objective. Once they secure the black sea they will have achieved one of them. If not taking Kiev is a fail after ten days then people need to look at the bigger picture. They are taking NPP and closing the black sea. Massive leverage. Remember dead troop's mean nothing to vlad.
Is the U.K. not sending aid?
All of the above and more.
Trump didn't have a close association with Putin. In one sentence you say we have been facilitating the current situation for 20 Years. Then go and blame Trumps recent association with Putin. Trump was in office for four Years. So who was facilitating for the other 16 Years?
NATO special forces at work? Looks very surgical and looks to have happened very quickly before vehicles had a chance to move. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO already have boots on the ground with the prime objective of holding Kiev.
No, its not amazing. No-one cares, to be quite blunt. The Russian hostilities and nuclear threat supercedes everything now. That, unfortunately, is the new reality in the world today. No amount of "whataboutary" is going to change that. Trust me, if nukes start flying or NATO begins its strikes on Russia, its going to be the farthest thing on your mind. Sad, I know, but true.
You can guarantee they would. Looking at the Order of Battle of the two, Russias artillery is their only Trump card in a conventional war, after that, its child's play. Airforce? Not a hope. Ever notice why Russian aircraft only fly into battle in only solo, 2-ship, or 2 and 2 formation? ( reference Syria), Its because they are unable to conduct complex air operations, something that NATO train for over and over and over. Russia does not even conduct Red Flag operations for training every year and their Pilots get on average just 100hrs a year.
Natos biggest goal at the moment, which is going completely unnoticed, is finding the Russian Subs. This is key. If they are absolutely 💯% sure that they will know where all the subs are and if some backchannel communications have guaranteed that there will be no retaliation with Nukes, then Nato will, in my opinion, strike in one brutal night strike.
All this threatening from Russia has given Nato plenty of time to be ready, get into position etc. This is the only opportunity the West will ever get to cripple Russia militarily and something tells me that they are not going to waste it.....they are waiting for an excuse, trust me on this. You're going to see a "misunderstanding or miscalculation" on Russias behalf that will finally give NATO the chance to strike. Hopefully they will have anything mobile accounted for at that moment. Its a massive Risk, but worth it in my opinion, especially if there is a good chance that Nukes will not be touched.
Simply because:
A: Russia did that
B: If Russia steps out of that theatre into any other countries that are either EU or NATO aligned they will not only have declared open war on them. But they also will have put China in to a place where they can not sit back. And Russia cannot afford two wars on those fronts. And it would be two wars.
During the Yugoslav war there was not the same outpouring of interest or compassion? The media hype seems to be a factor.
The author of this is of the assumption that Ukraine will fall but his piece from 5 years ago seems to be pretty much on the mark - thoughts?
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ukraine-at-a-crossroads-c_b_11613554
"Peasant conflict"?
"Peasant conflict"
Do you mean that the peasants are revolting?
There’s always an element of unfairness in how situations are seen and as things get further away people don’t see them the same way. There’s no doubt about that and some commentators made quite nasty comments about comparisons with other situations that were definitely tinged with notions of hierarchies of cultures.
However, we are directly involved in this war whether we like it or not. The motivation for it is directly about our immediate geopolitics and security. Russia attacked Ukraine because it’s too close to Western Europe, the EU and NATO possible membership.
Ukraine is physically a lot closer to us than other conflicts are. It is bordering multiple EU countries and for a lot of its neighbours this is like from an Irish perspective if something happened in Scotland, or France seeing something happening in Belgium. I was talking to a Polish friend of mine who has family way too near Belarus and she is terrified for them at the moment as she’s completely convinced Putin might attack. This isn’t some abstract situation for her. She grew up behind the iron curtain and it’s bringing it all flooding back to her.
It also directly threatens European geopolitics and security. If the Ukrainian invasion doesn’t end, then what? Russia begins attacking Moldova perhaps? Maybe takes a chance at going for a former Soviet or Eastern Bloc state that is now EU member like Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania?
We also have a not insignificant risk of nuclear weapons being launched at European countries or North America due to the Cold War history and antagonism against the EU and NATO more so.
Then you’ve the echos of modern history in Europe be it World War II aggressions and memories of invasion and atrocities or far more recent experience in Eastern European states that had to live with Russian domination behind the iron curtain as late as the 1989 and the aftermath of that didn’t fade until the 1990s.
It also has a direct impact on practical things like our energy security, which we are going to feel directly in the next few weeks. Already seeing petrol at 2.02 in one garage tonight and home heating oil at over €1400 for 1000 litres. We’ve risks with food security etc
Sadly when something is far away it becomes more abstract. In this case this conflict is hitting us full on. It’s on our doorstep and there’s no way we can simply look away.
I fully agree that we don’t see all conflicts through the same lens, but I would also tend to think that that we need to understand that in this case we are being directly threatened and involved.
I can’t think of any other situation where a belligerent power did training exercises off the Cork coast or where they were making credible threats to through their embassy in Dublin.
This isn’t far away. It’s right here.
94% of china lives on the eastern hemisphere of the country far away from Russia's borders where only around 6% live, the land Russia owns is close to uninhabitable
The tubs video is an embarrassment. Ffs, it sounds like he's creating a hierarchy of suffering and people who "look like us" are at the top of it
Is Ryan Tubridy the new Iraq? And did you seriously set up a YouTube account to post those clips you put together?
Ukranians are Europeans its fairly obvious that there is an onus on us the take them in as refugees. Unlike people from outside Europe who travelled through multiple states in there own regions or crossed a sea to present themselves as refugees in Europe.
Yet Putin's aim in Ukraine is largely based on emotion, far moreso than most thought possible. While there are legit objectives, I would argue his desire to conquer led to him pursing an ineffective and unfocused strategy. He should have concentrated his forces to secure the positions to the south, and the coastline, instead of attempting a multi pronged assault.
Tubridy literally said "they look like us"...several times!!
We have plenty of putin apologists on this thread......i never thought id see a tubridy apologist...
You have actually made a reasonable enough and measured point in your post......but it has nothing to do with what tubridy actually said....
Like a trump supporter trying to defend the bile that comes out of him...
Very disappointing....
I think we’re all forgetting that Russia ≠ the Soviet Union. They aren’t on that scale of power and military might or technology.
The USSR had a population of over 262 million and it had an alliance and economic system that included the Warsaw Pact countries and a huge supply chain that included all of those.
A lot of Soviet industrial capacity, technology and know how was actually in what are once again independent European states. A lot of it was even in Ukraine itself.
Russia isn’t that. It inherited an army and weapons systems but it’s not at all as capable as the Soviet Union. It’s also not driven by the same kinds of political ideologies and is a rather floundering oligarchy, highly capitalist and extremely unequal with a lot of poverty and offers low standards of living for the majority of its citizens. It’s been haemorrhaging talent, creativity and people for decades and it’s not really offering them anything that might attract them to stay.
Their army looks a lot less well organised and uncared for. The equipment isn’t great nor is it well maintained. The soldiers that we’ve seen look like they aren’t getting looked after very well and I would guess the pay is pretty bad. They’re being marched into a war that makes no sense and they’re being used as literal cannon fodder.
I’m more concerned that we’re dealing with an irrational actor of unknown and inexplicable motives than I am about the scale of Russian military defences.
The attack on the nuclear power station shows very poor tactics, poor judgment and probably lack of training and communication/coordination.
There are too many old nuclear weapons hanging around to feel very reassured about this and there’s a very odd character directing this.
Even for the sake of Russia itself, someone needs to restore calm, rationality and sense to this and I think the only likely solution will have to be the army itself deciding that enough is enough.
What's happening in Ukraine is just horrendous and it’s utterly needless human suffering. A country has been severely damaged, lives ended and destroyed and for what? They aren’t even fighting a war. It’s a cruel and irrational invasion and one which cannot succeed because it’s impossible.
They’ve no moral justification for it. The people won’t ever accept them and it will just roll on and on for years and maybe even decades, yet they’re not willing to accept that reality.
In the meantime all the potential Russia has to be something much more than this is just draining away. It could be so much better than this, but this is the path being chosen, not by the people but by the leadership. They are running Russia into the ground.
He invaded under Biden.
Oh please...
He invaded under Biden. We, the west, believe in principles like freedom of speech and individuality. Do you believe that Putin had some right to invade Crimea because that’s what you seem to be getting at.
"We" have been facilitating the current Russian situation for 20 years. Most recently with Trump's close association with Putin.
Isnt that what the poster was saying? Russia had no legitimacy to invade Crimea like they did and we should have acted sooner.
Nobodies history in the Crimea is a "proud one".
Pure hyperbole - Russia knows they have no chance against the whole EU, hell they're struggling to even occupy Ukraine
The amount of military equipment the Russians are losing is unreal - they must have thought this would be a walkover and finding out Afghanistan has nothing on Ukrainians
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