What if some anti-Putin opposition political figure set up a provisional government (or similar) in Russia and applied for EU membership?
The main reason Putin is tolerated or even admired over there is because he drastically improved the standard of living for most Russians especially in his first stint of President.
They are not rich by any stretch of the imagination but compared to Soviet times it's a different world.
People disappearing, or 25 journalists having tragic accidents falling out windows was all tolerated because of the economy, there is many other reasons too, but largely the economy, at the end of the day people are understandably selfish, 'well my life has improved why should I care if that dissident managed to hang himself from a tree with 2 broken legs".
But think about just 10 days ago.
Putin and some of the intelligence thought it was 3 days to topple Kyiv and the soundings from the West were very wishy washy Sanctions.
Well 10 days later and fúcking wheels have been blown off the Soviet fun bus.
Unless Putin has botoxed himself completely retarded he is acutely aware of the peril he is in.
It's why you are seeing a mammoth crack down in Russia.
It's very grim, but the more coffins go back to Russia, the more people will wake up there
Are younger or older than 10 years of age?
Not really amazing, we know exactly why there's been no pushback on Russia. Same reason why Russia has never pushed into NATO, despite fairly regularly taking the piss. Other countries like Iraq and Iran have no nuclear deterrent.
Attacking Russia on principle is a stupid move when there's a possibility of nuclear escalation. People can't eat principles when you've fucked your environment.
One possibility here is a negotiated de-escalation. Russia agrees to NATO enforcing a no-fly zone for all aircraft between Poland and the self-declared autonomous regions in the east. It means a longer war in East Ukraine, but will certainly allow Ukraine to route forces elsewhere in the country.
The apparent incompetence of the Russian forces in the West is likely a distraction anyway, Russia is using it as a way to ensure that Ukraine's defences are spread thinly rather than all focussed in the east.
I said people like you, learn to read what your replying to before going off the deep end. We are in a different world since Putin invaded Ukraine, calling people hysterical because you think were safe is pretty small minded and narcissistic after the last week in my opinion.
It's quite simple and I'm really scratching my head why this isn't bloody obvious; in every other war where the US/NATO went in the threat of thermonuclear armageddon wasn't on the cards. Even the many proxy wars the East and West were involved in during the 20th century. When the risk of thermonuclear armageddon was on the cards in the Cuban missile crisis, both sides blinked and for good reasons. Never mind that the wars the US has jumped into didn't exactly go to plan for all concerned, save for arms dealers and other bottom feeders.
Let Russia destroy Europe and the West
More hysterics. Russia is having a hard time destroying a nation they thought they could just roll into and even if they look like they've won in a week, they'll be bogged down in a bloody insurrection that'll send more and more bodybags back to Mother Russia. An attack on Europe/NATO would make their Ukraine misadventure look like a kid's playdate, with ice cream for all. And well they know it.
The same Mother Russia that is going bankrupt by the day, that will be cut off from the vast majority of the rest of the world, whose airlines have to skirt all western airspace, until they run out of parts for their aircraft and can't fly anymore. Hell, since yesterday Aeroflot can't even take bookings. Their banking system is fúcked. Their currency costs more to print than it is worth. Forget western governments, the corporate world is attacking them and hard and in many ways on a day to day basis they actually have more power. Western governments actions and rhetoric hurt, but corporate actions will send them back to the good old days of the Soviet Union, but not in the way Putin dreams of.
There's a difference between knowing what's going on and speaking about it or against it though, especially when you look at how protesters are being treated in Russia and the threat of 15 years in prison for the mere mention of war etc, I think we could be mistaking Russian peoples fear of speaking about what is happening with an ignorance of what is happening.
To paraphrase Spock in 'The Wrath Of Khan', that's very two dimensional thinking. The borders of a country include the sky above as well as the real or implied lines drawn on the ground. Sending in aircraft is exactly the same as sending in ground troops, which is why NATO has been unwilling to do that or to declare a no-fly zone.
Well the world is not as safe as it was since last week that's for sure. Don't know how much safer Brazil is tbh. People like me , you have zero clue about me so deep end I went. Cheers.
They could start a new EU, the Eurasia Union.
That's fine, but at the end of the day they know what's happening and are choosing their reaction. There can be no claims of ignorance among most of the population any more.
An Aeroflot plane went from Moscow to Budapest through Poland. Thought they were banned from that airspace.
They are but flights seem to keep popping up in banned airspace ,I would have thought they would have started to intercept flights and force them back to Russian airspace
Passionate speech
I wonder if its a case of a leased plane being repatriated OR the leasers were able to get it permission with the hope they can try impound it in Budapest.
They know or have a fair idea what's going on alright, but they have a very different reading of it, born of multi generational cultural propaganda and an odd mix of fear and admiration of the state. If they have too different a reading of it to the state, they'll tend to keep quiet.
Even the Russians I've know living and working in the west, some even married to westerners, it's has been both fascinating and shocking to me how much of that old Soviet bullshít they buy into. The Give me the boy I'll give you the man principle at work. At best if pushed, their goto response is avoidance and deflection to the bad things 'The West' has done. If everyone is bad shure nobody is 'argument'. When anybody has to run to deflection and avoidance you can be sure their argument is thinner than a Parisien runway model, that they haven't applied any thought to their hand me down opinions and are afraid to do so, because they know it's bullshít that they'd have to admit they're believing.
Should let them land and then seize the aircraft.
Any chance the UN can send in peacekeeping to defend the nuclear stations. Surely it’s in everyone’s interest that there’s no bloody explosions near a nuclear reactor…..
There were reports when this all started that the Russian forces had mobile crematoria with them ...
Ok?
Russia would absolutely veto
It sounds crazy to say at this moment in time, but eventually people will realize that Russia and the EU need to be working together to counter the might of the two real dominant global powers, China and the U.S.
Infighting like this on European territory suits those powers better than it suits us. We (as in Europeans and Russians) need to be sure we are not being played.
If the Putin regime could be removed, by Russians, say this year, collaboration should be on the table. End of punitive sanctions. Free elections. EU membership. Time scale: a generation. (I suffer from bouts of optimism.)
This is true. There was a lrish woman on the radio who went over to live in Russia age 14 to study ballet. She stayed over there for years. But Yeltsin was president when she first came and she said they never got paid, they were living on next to nothing..she said she used a razor to slice her vegtables to ration as much as she could. Putin came in and three months later everyone was getting paid properly. So you can imagine if you are 40+, in a blue collar job, maybe you've never travelled, basic level.of education, you watch state tv...you are going to view this man as a saviour. And I'm pretty sure those type of people make up a significant percentage of the russian population.
All we can hope is the economy tanking wakes up some of them.
I don't see any reason for Russia to do that. Controlling the power stations is power over electricity. Why would they not want that?
In fairness, that's very easy to say from this side of the world. That is the problem, they have grown up knowing no different. They see someone who has improved the quality of life there. For every one person to speak against him there's probably another 5 to say their nutters. Its not as easy as flick a switch and oh yes we get it now, this mentality is engrained in Russia. I hope they eventually see him for what he is, but I dont think the world has time to just sit and wait for that to happen either.. Its infuriating sitting here at my desk (meant to be working! 🙊) hearing all this going on, minute by minute people being killed and not doing anything.. I am probably the least confrontational person people know (apart from when it comes to bullies) but I really believe at this stage, we (Europe, NATO, The world) need to take on this bully directly. I mean when you strip it all down, it comes down to basic human decency here. how can we sit here and look on at what is happening to Ukraine, that Mr playground bully wants a toy that doesn't belong to him, and we're sitting back saying ah he shouldnt be doing that, but we're not stopping him either!
sorry rant over now.......
Great post Wibbs. Putin has completely miscalculated his own military capabilities and the world response.
How do you see it playing out?
Too much anti tank weapons and piss all SAM or anti aircraft weaponry. The place should be covered in drones taking out these missile launch sites.
Yeah maybe we should try and integrate production and manufacture and try to foster economic inter-dependence like the EU. Except Europe's been doing that for a couple of decades with Russia. Can argue "That's just about making money" but I think that's an incorrect (at least partly) assessment. Russia has shown it cannot be trusted and the people of Russia so far seem fine with that so they have a lot of rehabbing (20 years to get to where they were 10 years ago and another few decades at a minimum for economic restructuring) before they should be treated as anything other than a nutcase in the corner with weapons that can end humanity.
Putin's brave peacekeepers protecting the world from a father, son and their dogs
All the Putin bots, Putin apologists and but but both sides assholes can go f*ck yourselves
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