I suspect the Russian Middle Classes aspire to the same decadence which the soft Westerners are accused of having succumbed to.
Lack of access to name brands will sting.
You were over in the Covid threads for the past couple of years trying to pass yourself off as an expert on all all things Covid! Now you're over here trying to pass yourself off as an expert on all things Russia when in reality you haven't a fecking clue.
What is the out for Russia here? They have sanctions as long as your arm, they've been chucked out of every sport going, nobody can deliver goods to Russia, nobody will be able to travel by plane in or out in a few weeks as there is nothing to maintain the planes.
Do they think that taking Ukraine, installing their government, "leaving" and then everything will be back to normal again?
They can't even open the stock market. Does he think the stock market will be ok next week? If he cuts gas to Europe, it's March, the months will get warmer. We can hold out for another 7-8 months.
At what point does Vlad think they'll be allowed back into Sport? That companies will start delivering to Russia again. That Europe will allow flights from Russian territory again. He has burned his bridge.
And if he thinks the war ends when the Cities eventually fall, he has another thing coming. There are hundreds of thousands of weapons now in the hands of Ukrainians. Pissed off Ukrainians. The place will be ungovernable. Whoever becomes president will be assassination. Whoever is the chosen Pro Russian-Mayor of a city will be assassination. If the police work for the Russians, they'll be assassinated. When the war dies down and the Russians have to "peace-keep" this massive country, they'll be picked off on patrols. The best he can hope for is Northern Ireland in the 70-80s.
As were you….
But you’re the expert all of a sudden!??
Lets bookmark this and come back in a week!!!?
Great program alright. Good analysis about China's view. That British general Dannat on Newsnight thought the Russians simply wouldn't be able to take Kyiv and that China would probably step in to mediate.
Not surprised Kazakhstan politely declined to commit troops. I'm guessing they didn't want to be hit with these sanctions too.
I wonder did they get some form of guarantee from Beijing to protect them from Putin's wrath. I'd be checking my underpants for novichok if I were the Kazakh leader.
Newsnight also thought that it would be the west that would close the gas pipeline if the images from Ukraine got too horrific. Tbh I think it makes sense if we're really aiming to crash his regime asap to stop sending him hundreds of millions of euro per day to pay his murdering armies.
The country was being wracked by civil unrest just over a month ago due to spiraling fuel prices. The police and national guard had to use some pretty harsh methods to restore order as well as a number of government ministers being fired in order to end the violence.
Sanctions hitting Kazakhstan now, so soon after all that, would probably bring down their government.
To be honest, he had no choice. A large part of the Russian military are conscripts. Poorly paid and when the **** hits the fan, motivation would be a big issue. People act like it’s a big plan or physch to send in the fodder to grind down, and then the heavy guys to finish them off. But if he was to send in the heavies at the start and it didn’t go to plan, the fodder at the back won’t be able to do **** to help.
plus it shows Putin to be the despotic fuckwit we all know he is. Doesn’t give a **** about any of of these troops.
I wouldn’t count on it
Are you sure its the same one, this programme was about Dozht an independent tv channel in Russia and its founder and employees, having said that I missed the first part
Oh sorry, I was watching one with John Simpson. Sorry I'm exceptionally tired after the last week watching this horror show
Jesus that makes me so angry. Senseless destruction to appease a lunatic in Moscow.
I'm reading an interesting thread about how Russian military vehicles are hopelessly ill suited to the Ukrainian landscape, especially when it's muddy (it seems the type of tyres they use is a big factor). Apparently they would have worked much better in snow or on frozen ground. It might explain why their progress is so slow.
Fine👍its worth a watch anyway imo
This video looks like another one of these massive explosions, looks like it was recorded much closer to the epicenter. The whole sky lights up then a few seconds later the shockwave hits
https://twitter.com/imtiagoalves/status/1499186538009268227
Not saying it's part of a Putin masterplan but I'm concerned about the realities of rising energy input costs for manufacturers too.. which is coming on top of supply chain issues, rising prices in commodities and a labour shortage. We're in trouble, but we are lucky compared to places like the Middle East and Niorth Africa, which will see a huge rise in food poverty and increased starvation.
It is a concern that if there is starvation and chaos in various countries people will forget his attrocities
The additional concern is that he and Xi in China will control over half of the world's food.
Food being seen as a vulgar concern in Europe but it is quite important to people.
The impact of this war globally is much more than we currently appreciate.
10% of the world's wheat looks like it's under threat in Ukraine.
Can you provide with the rest of his plan, seems as how you are privy to it?
Vulgar concern is a good way of putting it. Also our culture has failed (and even denigrated) farming and manufacturing, while those sectors made us fat and provided us with utensils.
It's hardly rocket science.
His only advantage is his country is a global power in energy and especially in food. In fertilizer they are a key global player.
They have it within their power to make food a global crisis.
This keeps being mentioned, Putin holding the world hostage using fuel/food/fertiliser, and while I don't disagree that its a possibility, it is also highly unlikely given the currency he gains from the sales of these items.
IMHO, what is an equally likely possible outcome is many nations pivoting their energy production away from fossil fuels faster and modifying their agricultural methods while also tightening the proverbial belts. Doing this would allow for stability in their economies while at the same time further restricting access to funds for Putin.
Safe to say there's a long way to go with this yet and there are a few scenarios that could still come true. Having a nutter like Putin at the helm means you can't really rule anything out.
We can modify agriculture here more than most, we have a lot of good land and a reasonable climate.
Across much of Western Europe land has been whipped hard, in Asia it's incredible Fertilizer application rates that drive yield.
Who knows but it and energy are his big aces. The Ukraine alone is a key food source for 500mn people, 200 million of whom are on the Med and need that grain for each meal.
Who knows but if you want to reorder the world, buying favour with food, forcing EUR to deal with tens of millions of hungry neighbours etc is a good bargaining unit.
No argument at all that it's a card he could play, I just think it's unlikely, especially wrt fuel, as he can't do without the income.
That being said, if shipping companies won't ship to or from Russia/Ukraine then it could be a case that the wheat harvest just can't be sold to global markets. This is already happening with Russian oil which has been heavily discounted but remains unsold as no tankers are going to ship it for fear of sanctions.
If that last scenario happens the chaos, suffering, and refugee waves will be borderline uncontrollable.
If it doesn't get out of Russia then the globe is going to face a wave of revolution and breakdown.
An assessment of events to date, from a group of full-timers. Hour long.
Already a day or two out of date, mind. The only catch, these are more intel types than operational folks.
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