I think that the more likely scenario is that new boundaries are drawn in the next few weeks, a new government installed in the eastern part of that. A very uneasy calm descends, Russia goes into an economic tailspin for a while but that stabilises based on Chinese money. In time, the gas pipelines are turned back on, banks reinstalled into Swift. A new normal descends with increased nato presence along its eastern borders and a tense stand off. We see low level skirmishes across eastern part of Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Going to Brest now. Meeting NATO at the polish border?
Because at the end of the day democracy is worth fighting for. The be could be said in 1940&41 when Britian stood virtually alone against Hitler. But that resistance lead to the end of Hitler. You could make the same point about the 1916 rising but it lead to an independent state of sorts that lead on to the nation we have now.
The longer the Ukraine holds out the more likely that Putin will come under pressure from within. As sanctions continue to bit and oligarchs see there wealth dissipate and there ability to party where they like then there is a chance that Russia will step back.
He taught that in 48 hours he would be in Kyiv instead a week later his conveys are stalled along the route to Kyiv. If Ukraine had 10-12 serviceable jets it would be like Highway 80 out if Kuwait again.
One thing we have learned is that the Russian army is not the military force that many taught it was. Putin biggest fear must be that Poland, the Czech's or Slovakia will get involved.
Modern version of "swords to ploughshares".
Looks like they are going full Grozny ☹️
Depressingly likely….
Farmers are pretty creative. Could use them as a type of tractor.
Also Ukraine soil is a black soil. So it's pretty easy get stuck in it this time of year because it's thawing out, so it's wet and boggy. Anything that travels across it will get stuck.
Damn those pesky Ukrainians for holding their president to what he promised. A better package from Russia. The Ukranians want to be in Europe. And when they peacefully protested they fired live rounds at protesters. Have a look at the documentary about it "Winter on fire" on Netflix. They overthrew a tyrant who used live ammunition on his own people.
Serious scrap value at least.
You do realize that there are 40 Million Ukrainians there don't you? Where will they all go to?
Hard to say for sure with the video quality, but it doesn't look like it. His lips look like he's speaking the words in English, although I'm no lip-reader and of course that doesn't preclude the possibility of dubbing.
Ukrainian language is closer to Polish but this is due to Polish influencing Ukrainian big time during times when part of Ukraine was under Poland.
At the same time, many common words between Russian and Ukrainian, alphabet is practically the same and grammar is similar. So i'd say it's like Spanish and Portugeese. Then again, majority of Ukrainian speaking population is able to speak and understand Russian anyway. Apprx 30% of Ukrainian population is Russian speaking.
Culture wise it's like Irish to English, I'd say.
Could be culturally significant if it's not down to security or logistics - Brest was the site of the first battle between the Soviets and Nazis in WW2
Any time I visited ex-soviet installations while on holidays I noticed that the chairs were always the cold hard steel ones that would give you a numb ass after 10 minutes. Any of the residents of Orwell Road that are posting here able to let me know if the soviet style chairs are still in use, or have ye upgraded to more comfortable western office chairs?
That depends what you mean by ‘war’. That prediction is not that far from what I wrote. Their definition of war is ‘economically disruptive conflict’. It doesn’t necessarily mean an all Afghanistan style war.
Site where imperial Germany and Bolshevik Russia divided eastern Europe also at the treaty of Brest Litovsk.
I wish you were right, but I wouldn't underestimate the power of economic interests.
Wouldn't surprise me, 6 months or a year from now, to see Scholz and Putin shaking hands and talking about "a new chapter for their countries" as Nord Stream 2 is relaunched. And airlines will be back flying to and fro long before that.
Well considering Wallace, and this is publicly verified btw, took pension contributions from his own employees but didn't put the money into their pension schemes and still got elected probably makes him think he's untouchable.
Listening to Liveline and all the Ukrainian contributors (including a woman in Mariopol) are ethnic Russians and speak Russian as their first language : and yet they regard Putin as an evil dictator and have no wish to live under his regime.
One gets the impression that the only place the Russians are welcome is among pro-Putin fanatics and nationalists in the Donbass.
Here you go:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/IndoEuropeanTree.svg :D
Ukrainian seems to be about as close to Russian as Spanish is to Portuguese. That is, close enough that they could verbally communicate without much difficulty, but far enough apart that a Russian speaker would still need lessons to become fluent.
Culturally, not a clue. Before world war 1, about a quarter of the Russian empire spoke Ukrainian. It was the second largest language after Russian. So one can guess, that they have some strong cultural overlaps. But it's a huge country. From the western most edge to the east is the same distance as Dublin to Berlin. How close are Dubliners and Berliners? :)
Cultures can and do vary dramatically even inside a country, if it's big enough.
I think it is. He's probably saying the lines phonetically, or just learned that much for the bit. If his English was that fluent, it would make you wonder why he spoke Ukrainian when addressing the EU. Yes, I'm fully aware that he shouldn't have to, but if you're making an impassioned address to foreigners and you can do it in their language, that's better than using an interpreter.
I really doubt that. He has gone too far to be trusted with anything like that again. (Why didn't he wait until the gas was flowing?)
Time will tell. I hope I'm wrong.
Same happened here to southern unionists after the black and tan terror.
A key point is that Ukraine has been a democracy for years. Thinking that ethnic Russians in Ukraine would much rather live under the rule of Putin's police state (and where he can't be removed from power) would be rather naïve.
I see there's a Turkish Army military plane climbing out of Rzeszow Airport close to the Ukrainian border. I doubt they are dropping off sweeties!
Honesty indeed, the Ukrainian people and their entire Parliament judged they their future and interests were more aligned with the west with an autocratic megalomaniac and his local puppet. The Ukrainians decided their own destiny and every election since as reconfirmed that that is their wish. And that's what bothered Putin.
Grim stuff, more dark signs that Russia will try to turn Ukraine into Grozny
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