EU membership talk at this point is silly. Short and medium term aid and preferential loans with the overarching message that it isn't contingent on EU membership, they can decide on that later. Messaging is important (don't think von der Leyen's statement was be posted around the internet if membership is on the cards in future) and the help the EU gives shouldn't be, and shouldn't be seen to be contingent on Ukraine joining up.
Putin wants a Russian puppet, the way it was up to the 2014 revolution. How do you not know this?
Even the Intelligence from 6 weeks ago said this was his aim.
How does he control 40m people? Nigh on impossible but Belarus manage to do it with 10m people. His only method will be to break the spirit of the Ukrainians to submit them. I don't think it's possible though.
There are so-called ethnic Russians all over Ukraine who quite happily live in Ukraine and have done for many decades. There is no risk to those in the East from the Ukrainian state, it's a bunch of separatists who'd rather go back to Mother Russia.
I got into a fight once, thankfully I just let the other guy puck the head off me rather than throw flames on the fire by doing something about it.
Calm down. They want the application process to start, it doesn't mean automatic acceptance.
Assuming they can still negotiate and not just surrender, Ukraine will have some tough choices ahead. I can't see Russia just packing up and leaving the entire territory.
Either a neutral, somewhat hobbled by a federal structure Ukraine for the entire territory.
Or, a Ukraine ceding chunks of its territory in the south east but that Western rump is free to plot its own course.
The size of that chunk will be determined by soldiers on the ground when the fighting stops.
I don't see all of Ukraine as claimed by their government getting into the EU.
Time to come up with better insults than "do you get paid in rubles or rupees?"
Anyone who thinks Ukraine will agree to "demilitarisation" and an agreement to never join EU/NATO should not be calling out other people for their "narrow view of the world".
It would go against everything Ukraine have been doing since 2014. They have no interest in being a Russian puppet.
Maybe check that again and roll the old eyes elsewhere.
Are you defending Russia? Frankly I've no idea whether you are or not.
What you seem to believe is that Russia has some type of valid hold over Ukraine as it dares to look towards EU membership and where there are some cultural and historical ties - then Ukraines sovereignty is somehow negotiable. Both ideas variously touted by Putin oddly enough.
As for the EU and membership. Ukraine's desire to join the European Union dates back to 1993 when the government declared that integration to the EU is the main foreign policy objective.
The political dialogue between the EU and Ukraine started shortly afterwards when the partnership and Cooperation Agreement was signed
According to a poll conducted in February 2015 in all regions of Ukraine except Crimea, 66.4% would have voted in favor of joining the EU and 33.6% against with a turnout of 76.4%.
Ukraine has shared borders with four EU member state: Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Romania - all with cultural and historical ties to Ukraine
As for a EU membership referendum, afaik they hadn't got to that stage yet. However Putins most recent tantrum has now catapulted EU membership to a much a greater possibility, that is presuming that Putin doesn't succeed in going full metal jacket as part of his latest tantrum.
May I ask where was the referendum which asked the opinion of the people of Ukraine on the invasion of the Russian "peacekeeping" forces?
I think that Belarus nuke thing could be used as an excuse by NATO to end Belarus, would ruin the Russia invasion as they are going from the North on Kyiv.
but obviously huge huge HUGELY risky..but appeasement doesnt work.
Yeah because a fictious brawl on the street is akin to all out nuclear world war that will affect billions.
You got me. Totally the same.
Can you tell me what the alternative endgame for this is? Because I struggle to see how it ends in a Ukrainian "win", or anything close.
A fast tracked EU membership and Ukraine ceding half their territory is hardly in their interest either - unfortunately the Ukrainians are no longer really in a position to pursue their interests.
The massive extent of it, especially the exclusion from SWIFT would have taken them aback. You'd also expect that there are preparations underway to address their only non-nuclear threat of cutting off energy supplies. Without income from that source Russia is economically destitute. And it's not stolen, it's resting just out of reach for now! If they stop this adventure it all goes away.
But a bond is a loan. Why should Russia have to take out loans when it had a **** load of money in a bank saved up. Because basically money they had access to has been frozen or basically taken from them.
If I had 100k in a bank and then suddenly it was wiped. You would hardly say it is ok because you can borrow a 100k from this bank and pay it back with interest over this term. Your savings have been wiped.
China won't give russia any sympathy. If China is doing deals with Russia is because it suits them.
To answer your whatabout: Turkey has had their application stalled for many reasons, not least severe democratic backsliding from Erdogan. Ukraine is moving in the opposite direction, rooting out corruption and reinforcing democratic institutions with transparency. The direction of travel with Ukraine is clear, and it's obvious. It has its problems which nobody in the EU is oblivious to, but it has come an awful long way since 2014 with regard to corruption, which is problematic for a particular shortar*se in Moscow.
As for Belarus: Have a good think why Belarus isn't a candidate country.
I posted the link?
Corruption index. Ukraine just 3 points above Russia. Even Belarus is less corrupt.
He may not have been a lunatic during his rise to power or afterwards, but he is certainly acting like one now. This might be all Nixon's "mad man" theory, of course, or just a dramatic miscalculation on Putin's part; but it cannot be denied that he has made a huge mistake.
No doubt Putin has made some very clever moves in the past, particularly with regard to information warfare, but it is time to stop thinking of him as some sort of all-knowing genius.
Belarus has a treaty with lukashenko's line manager in Moscow so an attack on Belarus would be the same as an attack on Russia.
Take a trip to Riga or Eastern Estonia. The EU is already home to millions of ethnic Russians living peacefully and with prosperity. They quite enjoy it actually.
Why is Ukraine ranked as one of the most corrupt countries then?
Which days haven't been?
Yes its a bit creepy. The only wars most Irish people have fought in are meme wars.
This is all about the current mindset of Putin. He's had TOTAL AND UTTER CONTROL of Russia for so long, and he's become paranoid and resentful at a multitude of sins that he alone believes the West have - and are - committing against Russia. The man is capable of anything - including nuclear weapons.
I also don't believe that there is any hope of any "inner circle" bringing him down. His grip is too tight, and he's very adept at brainwashing people as to the supposed "threats" to the Russian empire.
I've no doubt that in the background, Xi has been in touch with Putin and was also instrumental in these talks taking place. I hope something good comes out of these talks today, as a cornered tiger is when it's most dangerous. A deranged cornered tiger at that.
I think this article pretty much sums up the situation most accurately...
We all know its not gonna happen quickly, ukraine will have to jump through the hoops, set the borders, referendums in crimea and donbass where they wanna go etc ukraine could join as a de facto divided nation like Cyprus. Turkey is not in eu because of invasion to Cyprus, they have to get it sorted first and then the talks will start.
All this ukraine in eu talk is just sending a message to mother russia.
Zelenskyy himself was implicated in the Panama Papers
I think you are confusing EU vs NATO membership.
Belarus becoming nuclear is a very dangerous path for Belarusians, they will end up on the junk heap like Ukraine once Vlad is done with them
It would also appear to be incorrect. American intelligence (iirc) suggests that the plan was air superiority in 24hrs, take the capital in 48hrs and a new puppet government in 72hrs. None of those objectives have, as yet, been achieved.
Modern armies do not send equipment and men out to be destroyed, even old stuff.
This mission looks to have been either badly planned or there was a large gap between what the superiors thought what their capabilities were and what they actually were. I suspect its bit of both, along with unexpected resistance that has slowed the Russian advance.
While the Ukrainian resistance has to be acknowledged, it needs to be noted that the Russians are holding and advancing and their appears a real risk of the Ukrainian forces being encircled in the east. Wanting success for the underdog shouldn't make us become detached from this reality.
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