My professional opinion would require access to information I don't have. Even the 'open source' questions have such wide potential ranges of outcome, I'm reluctant to commit to saying anything beyond that I suspect a lot of people are going to die.
Close to zero, they are held for use in defending the homeland ie. a deterrent to prevent an invasion ever happening. No one is invading Russia or the US or any existing part of NATO.
1/6
No, much as we don't where I am now. But there are folks who would see that as such and automatically assume we would be supporting the actions by Russia. It's not a left or right leaning thing. It's a right or wrong thing. And Russia is in the wrong.
Sure seems like it.
Ukranian President just now: "While advancing you will see our faces, not our backs"
That depends on a) how far this escalates and b) how "well" the operation goes for Putin. All in all, I'd say we're at Able Archer '83 levels of probability for a nuclear war. Not willing to give a percentage though.
i took it as unintended consequences, i think there is a chance of spillover into Nato controlled countries
Able Archer the closest we came to nuclear war in Europe,
Sadly, I agree
More like one in a million
And now Russia has closed airspace along the northeast Ukraine border to civilian aircraft - to allow for military aircraft activity....
Is this it?
The only spillover I can see in NATO countries is Russia attempting to aggravate any societal divisions and try to get a pro-Russian government in place if possible. But, to be honest, if that were a goer, Russia would already be doing it. There are significant Russian minorities living in the Baltic states, but there doesn't appear to be much interest among those groups to rebel, as has happened in Ukraine.
Could well be especially whats happening in donesk at the moment ,I've noticed that global hawk is flying close to the area too
I'd actually rate the Cuban Missile Crisis higher, as well as the 1983 false missile attack alarm that happened about a month before Able Archer kicked off. In both cases, it was basically one man who prevented a full nuclear strike (Vasili Arkipov during the Cuban Missile Crisis and Stanislav Petrov during the 1983 incident). Able Archer certainly ratcheted up the tensions, but later interviews with Soviet officers, including senior staff officers, seem to indicate that while the exercise was a concern, the reaction wasn't as extreme as more recent pop history accounts may make it seem.
Russia has closed the airspace around the Ukrainian border to civilian aircraft.
Things are moving fast tonight. It does now seem that Ukrainian Government officials believe a large scale invasion is about to get underway, I would imagine at 04:00hrs local time (02:00hrs GMT).
I would not be surprised if we wake up in the morning to a major war underway in Europe.
Looks like its happening tonight. Jesus feckin christ
It looks like Ukrainian officials are implementing continuity of Government plans, right now. So it's close.
we are now at DEFCON 1 on the commensurate Ukranian scale
It must be remembered that Ukraine will be no pushover. Their military is huge also,250000 excluding reserves. Add in the hardware that is coming in from various nato countries and maybe putin won't get it all his own way.
How different is the world after today if the large scale invasion goes ahead?
To those that were on this thread saying it wouldn't happen, it was NATO's fault, it was the US's fault, it was the west's fault I'd say this. The blood of the innocents that are about to die from the actions of Russia is equally on your hands.
US officials signalling that they will take steps to protect their personnel and assets - i.e. the aviation monitoring will cease. Worth keeping an eye on the overflights in the hours ahead. If we see flight paths deviate back towards central / western Ukraine, then the start is near.
Really odd I'm feeling very emotional all of a sudden , following this through every thread over the last 8 years and everything I hoped would never happen is happening ..
I'm scared for the Ukrainan people
I have a strange feeling too. Like the (Western) world is about to take another major shift. Two epoch changing events within 2 years. The other thing about Corona was that it shows how sometimes history isn't very interesting when you're living in it. It's only with time and hindsight that we have context and a narrative. Perhaps it will be the same with this.
The result of continuous appeasement, we've been here before
She’s just over Rostov now. Looks like it will follow the border but on Russian side. But if they’ve also closed their airspace 🤔
Callsign: BRU8142
Edit - FlyDubai took off from Minsk about 15 mins ago on way to Dubai. Callsign: FDB1716
wonder what path it will take?
The big difference will be air power. The Russian Air Force has a crushing majority in operational fighter and bomber aircraft, with Mig-29s and Su-27s actually being among the oldest in the inventory at this point. Depending on how many squadrons they're willing to deploy, that could make life hell for Ukraine. Granted, the Ukrainian Air Force is no slouch either, but 70 fighters vs. several hundred on the other side will likely make this a very one-sided contest. Again, the big question is how much the Kremlin is willing to deploy for this operation.
Their armed forces will certainly put up one hell of a fight, but they lack serious air power and air deterrence. I fear much of their military will be devastated by air and cruise missile strikes before any major hostilities even get underway on the ground.
You also need to seriously question Ukraine's actual defensive plans. Sure, they have upsized, upskilled and re-equipped the military - however overall defensive strategy seems lacking. I don't think the Ukrainian Government ever thought this day would arrive. The military has been focused on ensuring internal security, dealing with subversives, not necessarily confronting a major army.
Also, people talk about the insurgency threat. Russia does not deal with insurgencies in the same manner that the US does. We only need to look to Syria to show us that. Entire towns and cities levelled, turning the entire populace of governorates into refugees. Look at Chechnya too. Insurgency is broken through the use of mass destruction and terror.
People harp on about US war crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq during the counter-insurgency. Hold on to your hats.
Ive been firmly against anyone who has been trying to justify or play down what Russia has been doing on this thread.
But I think that comment is uncalled for.
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