It's all falling apart alarmingly fast for Boris Johnson across the water. How long you reckon he has left as British Prime Minister? Hours surely?
How many parties are they talking about now? I've lost count.
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The guy was sent out mid "work meeting" to get more booze because they had drank all the original meeting refreshments. That is important to what kind of meeting. Also a suitcase rather than bag makes it look like you had something to hide.
The humour matters because those kinda sound bites work. It's like Corbyns "make June the end of May" or Romney's "binder full of women". Catchy stuff is remembered better.
Suitcases of booze seem to be a Tory thing.
I recall the former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne wandering around Dublin with a Gladstone bag full of bottles of champagne in the early 90s.
Well, that's what he's going to do. According to the reports doing the rounds today. That story is out for a couple of weeks now. These things don't really accumulate as i wpudl hope. Its like they're being poured into a leaky bucket and the way all the revelations are spaced out allows the bucket to never fill. If it all came at once at the beginning, the bucket would have overflowed and Johnson would have resigned. But the time its dragging on means the bucket is emptying and hasn't overflowed yet anyway. The suitcase story is old news now. Don't rely on it to count against Johnson as much as it did when the story broke originally.
Playing devil's advocate: Why does the method of transporting the booze make any difference? A suitcase full of booze is a funny image, but what's humour got to do with it his argument thst it was a work meeting with booze and snacks?
As an aside, was it a carry on suitcase or a check-in suitcase? Big suitcase, big meeting.
I know it was a different party but the snacks and wine excuse went out the window as soon as the "suitcase full of booze" came in the door. The "work meeting" excuse has been so ridiculed at this stage he would be mad to bring it up.
Ah, I know it's not an attack. I acknowledge its conjecture. I'm just giving an opinion based on the evidence we have.
He's going to argue that the parties were actually a kind of work meeting. They were essentially a kind of meeting with snacks and wine. He'll claim he didn't mislead the house on purpose. He'll say he was ill advised. He won't quit because he misled the house because he'll agrue he didt mislead the house. I'd bet the farm on that point.
Whether the MPs force a conference vote and oust him, I'm much less confident but I doubt either will happen.
"Conjecture" wasn't an attack, all I meant was what I am about to say is...conjecture. What the Sue Gray report will unequivocally show is that Boris Johnson misled parliament when he said “All guidance was followed completely in No 10.”. Normally that would be enough to finish off any Prime Minister, but Johnson isn't a normal Prime Minister. He will try to brazen it out, I think he will fail.
Of xourse it's conjecture. I've been careful so say "I think" because that's where we are.
I think the full sur gray report would have sunk him a few weeks ago if it landed all Al once (a knockout blow). But in the meantime i think the conversation has changed. Now the conversation is moving to whether he went back to work after the parties, not whether he attended them at all. I really think the goalposts have moved and the clock is ticking on.
What could the sue gray report say now that hasn't already been established? He was at parties, there was drink and snacks, there are photographs, witnesses, sue gray can't reveal anything new as he's contending he was going back to work after the parties and that makes it alright. You and I know that's not really the point, but that's what the conversation is becoming. Muddied waters to the point that nothing is really true or false and the whole thing keeps moving on - to the next crisis.
You're obviously right that we'll have to wait and see what actually happens.
It's all just conjecture, we will have to wait and see, but I don't think he would survive getting fined. I also think the full Sue Gray report being published, in itself, would be enough to trigger a no confidence vote.
I think they've moved the conversation on from that. A couple of weeks ago before the sue gray report, if he was fined, he was out. But I think that was then and this is now. By the time we find out if HE was fined, I think it'll have blown over.
I can't see how he doesn't get fined, "a work meeting" defence just doesn't cut it regarding what is already known about these events and the rules in place at those times. ignorance of the law is no excuse, especially so when you are the one implementing those laws. It would reflect really badly on The Met if he gets off. Are they really going to take that hit for a lame duck PM?
This would stand to reason. The UK is an intensely centralised country. I was involved with the local Lib Dems and I saw the same thing. Ridiculous but relying on such an archaic system results in such things.
Yes you're probably right. A friend of mine was a Labour Councillor in Newcastle and said it was infuriating thst people voted locally based on how the PM was viewed. He also said some people would complain about really local issues like bin collections when they canvased for general elections. So I suppose it means people often don't really know what they're voting for.
But I suppose losing control of a lot of councils would be big trouble for him.
Hard to call. If he goes now, his replacement has some time to try and look competent for the next GE. On the other hand, if they can get him to soak up more damage now, it means an easier time for his successor.
I think the watershed will be this year's local elections. Unimportant in and of themselves but a useful barometer nonetheless.
I'd say you're right that this will weaken him. I'm assuming he won't lead the party into the next election. I'd say he'll survive this and leave either by choice or or he'll be weakened and forced out by the next scandal. But one ot t'other will happen before the next election.
I'd imagine that if he survives and leaves by choice then the next PM could make it to the end of the parliamentary term. If he's forced out it will probably need a new General election. What do you think?
Agreed but this is assuming that nothing else appears. The report will trigger some outrage but, at best he wins a minuscule majority in 2023/2024.
Eventually, Sue Gray will publish the report with loads of photos of the parties. Johnson will claim he was advised he was going to a work meeting and these kind of meetings with snacks and booze, happened all the time in No.10. He'll argue they are just a type of work meeting and maybe, in hindsight, when all is considered and in the cold light of day, maybe he was ill advised to attend the meetings.
As above, he'll argue he was at work meetings with booze and snacks and where people stood around drinking and informally chatted about work. Just another type of meeting. He'll argue he went back to work after the parties. The news has focused on the party after Dominic Cummings left and whether the PM discussed who to hire to replace Cummings at these meetings, thus making it a work meeting. So he'll argue that IF they were parties (and he won't accept that they were parties) then he was ill advised.
Waters are sufficiently muddied now so I think he's in the clear on the parties. They will have done damage to his overall reputation and electability, so the torys might want to put pressure on him to resign later, but he's over the hump on the parties specifically.
I don't think many people care about this. Remember, this is a country that is extremely wealthy where foodbank use is rampant:
This is fine. I think his short term future hinges on whether or not there will be further revelations and/or leaks.
Source for image: https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/
The bigger issue is lying to Parliament, something which has long been considered to be a resigning matter for any MP, Minister or Prime Minister. But it's not enforceable, so he can just dig his heels in and belt on.
He may certainly survive it, however it's definitely not through innocence, but rather by not doing the decent thing which is expected of him.
I'm not so sure. It's been settling down but all it'll take to bring it back to the forefront is another leak or photo. Despite the Met's best efforts to protect him, he's still in a very precarious position. Even if he survives, the next election isn't far off. He's halfway into his term now and the next election will probably be in 2024. I think he's done either now or very soon. If the party want to plant Sunak or Truss, they need to do it now or at least coordinate the knives.
Looks like Johnson is in the clear over the parties. The Met will say how many fines they issued and probably won't say who specifically was fined (accessible through freedom of information request which will take weeks or months to be published after all the appropriate delays are applied).
I see Johnson is going to use the defence that he was working at the parties and they want to make it a he said, she said about whether ot not he went back to work after the parties. Muddying the waters like that is perfect cover and easy to slip back into partisan lines.
Then in a couple of weeks say it's all in the past, time to get on with the business of running the country. He's in the clear, in my opinion
People are going to be so disappointed when they find out the real reason why "Dick" is trending this evening!
There seems to be an element of "So what? We can do what we like and you can't stop us" Bullingdon style brazeness to Johnson and Rees-Mogg, which (IMO) ties into the way English society still seems to be stuck in a feudal time warp. The people at the top demonstrate their status by flaunting their ability to do what the rest of us are simply not allowed to. The people at the bottom accept that these are their "betters" and doff their caps.
The bottle was snuck into the room by Labour and the liberal media elite.
Attacked by a bottle of bubbly?
This. If Downing Street had modestly competent PR advisers (or, perhaps, if the PM would listen to them) when all this kicked off the parties would have been admitted and apologised for, and the public debate wold have been about a lapse of judgment many months ago in having had office parties. By lying, and lying to Parliament, they make it about character, about fitness for office, and so about an issue that is still very much a current issue. AllForIt's theory that there is a media conspiracy to hound Johnson over this only makes sense if you accept that Johnson himself has to be part of that conspiracy. Every time he's faced with a choice between apologising and lying, he lies, thereby reinforcing the "Johnson the liar" perception that is now so damaging to him. No media conspiracy can force him to do that; he chooses to do it. He even chooses to do it when the lies are almost certain to be exposed because, hey, there are photographs.
It's over here in all but name, the Danish ended all restrictions a week or two ago.
Like his namesake from Fawlty Towers, this Mr Johnson appears to enjoy champagne when he's 'on the job'. Or perhaps he's going to take a leaf from our civil service and inform us it was actually 'sparkling wine'...
Another day another dog whistle. At this stage the DUP should know when their buttons are being pressed.
Still there's an impressive list of stuff the DUP has wasted political capital on fighting the power while knowing Westminster would impose it anyway. And right now they need friends in Westminster. And Boris needs a puppet and a fool for his political games.
Yep. they knew Johnson would be desperate to get to the Commons recess at the end of this week without any more cock-ups. Then he would have had some breathing space until the 21st of the month.
The leakers have been doing well, ratcheting it up just when big dog thinks it might be over.
The hilarity is that the leakers are effectively setting the governments agenda as they scramble to announce zany schemes (minister for brexit opportunities 🤣) to distract attention.
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