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Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

Kermit.de.frog

Hello friends!!! seems like a while since we've had something interesting to focus on! 🤗

This system which will begin developing and scooting this way overnight Tuesday from the southwest and go in to a period of rapid deepening as it approaches by Thursday requires enthusiastic eyeballs on it.

Could get very interesting by late Thursday evening/Thursday night/Friday - potential for heavy rain, snowfall and markedly increased winds for a time, stormy conditions potentially. I think there is no harm having a thread on this given we've been struggling for anything remotely interesting to mention really this winter so far.

Potential hazards and warning levels:

Strong Winds: ORANGE

Snow: ORANGE

Rainfall: YELLOW

GFS synoptic profile prediction Friday Afternoon, tight gradient and cold air in place both immediately ahead and behind the system:

As regards the rain risk - that's a given anything between 25 and 50mm in some places Thursday night and through most of Friday. Again dependent on track of the system. Some local flooding would seem a high enough risk.

The snow risk is certainly there but it's a question of where? Some models have the best chance in the north and west, others further south. It all depends on the track and it's too far out for meaningful forecasts for now but i'd say a snow event of whatever sort is a significant risk at the moment and that could be anywhere right now. This is the UK Met Office but there is a lot of different outcomes.

That's just one possibility, other models like I say this further south and that's vital for where see's the most snowfall. Some models like the ECM have things a bit too far north really so far.

We'll have to keep an eye on the track and the evolving projected depth of this system and see the evolution in the next couple of days.

A significant event is possibly developing here but we'll see. 🙃

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[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637866#Comment_118637866

Ah here now,Arklow has had 18 frosts since Jan 1st alone 😂

Little snowy old me

Finally something exciting weather wise. Apart from one or two stormy days and some thunderstorms around New Year, it has been one of the most boring mundane winters in South Donegal. Next few days could certainly bring something wintry.

Gonzo

Arklow and the far south-east of the country probably did better from the high pressure in January in terms of frosty nights compared to the rest of the country. In meath we had about 2 proper nights frost in January but parts further west and north had barely a frost, a few hours at most here and there and very little sign of frosts by morning.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637452#Comment_118637452

I don't know. From past experience he tends to overhype a potentially promising scenario, while more realistic posters tend to play it down, resulting in recriminations all round when the inevitable happens, and invariably these threads come to a toxic end. Sorry to be Mr Pessimistic, but that's just the way these threads go.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637361#Comment_118637361

I'll settle for snow thanks. Boris can have his slightly windy day

Currently perched at 167 asl overlooking the SW Atlantic.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118636168#Comment_118636168

Time to book a lamp post methinks.

pauldry

Is this it?

You know the memorable event of the Winter or are we to be missed again?

Even if we are it's not really a surprise as this is a small deep system and only starts to develop on the jet from Thursday morning so could end up South of Cork in which case a lot see snow or direct over the centre in which case just the North. They do tend to veer slightly more North so some Coastal areas might well be in the Red zone for wind.

vicwatson

Storm Franklin Saturday morning????

Gant21

Met Éireann having an rte jizz moment again. Storm how are you.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638264#Comment_118638264

Aside from the fact that is total nonsense there are other threads, you don't have to use this one 🙄 Everyone's contrarian view and debate is welcome. I don't see anyone being more "realistic" than anyone else. I'm comfortable with my own track record FWIW and these threads, and everyone's threads, tend to be informative and fun for the most part

Anyway, following today's model runs I remain on the bullish side. Hopefully by tomorrow evening we should have a much clearer picture.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638350#Comment_118638350

Calling time on ya Kermit.

But there's always time for another scoop, another Muppet Show encore and another twist in Irish weather watching

Kermit.de.frog

ECM 18z is a slight upgrade on the 12z. The system a smidgen bit further south. The center remaining off the south coast which would be perfect. You can see how the temperature gradient is getting squeezed and, with time, gradually lower on the northern flank as the front slides eastward.

I'd be content with that if it was still there tomorrow evening.

JanuarySnowstor

It's all about the storm this morning!

Ukmo early hours Friday! A certain red!!

JanuarySnowstor

And the gfs a frame later!

Storms and snow are not a match. This one's most definitely a storm!!

JanuarySnowstor

The icon still wanting to keep things off shore. We miss the storm but the South gets pasted!

JanuarySnowstor

And last but not least the GEM

So where are we this morning. The storm has nudged further North and so has the snow risk. A larger mild sector now showing at least temporarily! The wind is my main concern especially for my location. Methinks a red for Clare, Kerry and Cork

SeaBreezes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638684#Comment_118638684

Fingers crossed for icon trend to win out!! Dont like those winds on south coast.

M.T. Cranium

The ECM and Arpege look to be on similar tracks now, through the inland south. That would tend to maximize the snow potential in central and northern counties, and keep extreme winds somewhat off the south coast (the strongest gradient depicted is a little too far south, although the winds coming in from the northwest into the Atlantic coast would be considerable).

As JS has summarized, some models are a bit further north and the ICON is well south.

Part of the problem for the models is that this storm has not really formed yet, it is supposed to develop very rapidly tonight along the frontal boundary laid down by departing Dudley, in a zone to the north of the Azores, and then whatever forms will run up along the frontal boundary wherever it stalls on Thursday night. Different models are estimating different locations for all that.

I have included a satellite image here which may update for later viewers, check the time stamp on it, but at present you'll see that in the central Atlantic there is not much development around 40N along this long trailing front; that is where Eunice is going to pop out into the world later.

Look for the enhanced cloud (jet streak) near 40N 40W and this is the general area of storm formation. They have a dedicated dropsonde indicated on upper air charts, there is an extremely strong low level jet in that area, 130 knots at 500 mb and 100 knots at 700 mb. These are very high values for those levels. At 250 mb it is a somewhat less unusual 200 knots. Those winds are howling away over top of a strong "thermocline" where the cold Labrador current has made a dent in the Gulf stream (SST values range from 2 C to 17 C over a rather short distance). But there is no organized low pressure system there yet, nor will there be much even by mid-day ...

The RGEM model which has a finer grid than the GGEM shows slow development to 12z Thursday (it is now 06z Wed) with a 997 mb low forming by that time at 47N 25W. By 36 hours this is predicted to be close to 50N 17W at 969 mbs and undergoing capture by a developing upper low.

Would say that there is so much development potential here that tracks cannot be entirely trusted yet, and certainly with those upper level wind parameters there is a risk of a damaging wind event in the south and/or southeast depending on track.

I don't think we're going to know the answer to the track mystery until well into Thursday at the rate this comes together.

YanSno

ICON has it a tad north compared to previous runs.

rovers_runner

Spare a thought for our "Dublin is the centre of the universe" snow chasing posters:

Rebelbrowser

A slight southern correction on 6z GFS. I've pasted below the equivalent frames from the 0z and 6z

Eunice 6.png

Eunice 7.png

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639349#Comment_118639349

Unless you have a crystal ball showing you how this turns out it seems pretty premature (not to mention unhelpful) to be making such a post

rovers_runner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639396#Comment_118639396

It was an observation of how in recent years there was a prevailaing attitude that if it didn't happen in Dublin then it didn't happen.

mumo3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118638264#Comment_118638264

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118639420#Comment_118639420

As a Corkman I'm as fond of a bit of Dub bashing as the next man😉, but I do think that assertion you make isn't right about the weather forum. Many of our best posters such as Kermit, GL, Weathercheck (before he turned to the dark side!) and many others are Dubs who frequently go out of their way to post about events that clearly will not affect Dublin but they do so as they are weather enthusiasts. Sure there is the odd Dublin d***head posting here but there are also Cork and Limerick and Galway etc d***heads too. Dublin hasn't got a monopoly on them.

Back to the matter at hand, and right now Dublin's chances of snow are far better than my chances down here.....

Chris_5339762

Keep it south please, the very strong winds are looking a bit too close to where I am in Cork for my liking. The greenhouse won't survive what some models are predicting.

squarecircles

yellow wind snow warning for friday.

YAWN...

Baybay

Anyone feel we got a bit of a storm taster last night?! Coastal Wicklow. No idea of direction or speeds, real weather boffin here but woke up hearing the wind buffet against the Velux about 2am. Few things that have previously been happy enough out there had been scattered around in the garden. Great craic this morning trying in the wind to put what had been the bungee secured cover back on the patio furniture! Still haven’t spotted where one of the solar lights ended up. Really looking forward to tonight!

TTLF

I know people are fixated on the possibility of possible presistant snow, but does anyone else find it very interesting if we had a "Snow-rain-Snow" event? (East coast specific here) - Could make for a really interesting day lol

pauldry

I reckon the low centre will track right over the Munster area with rain and wind and some snow further North. Some gusts of 140kph likely on South Coast. Rest of country could get battered or lead a charmed life like many storms. May be Red South Orange Atlantic Yellow Rest and White North!