Following on from
this thread
Please remain civil or posting privileges will be removed
There won't be room in the bed for all of them. :)
Regards...jmcc
Last I checked the three parties were on 50% or more in each of the last few opinion polls.
It certainly shows the lie of certain posters that the government don't have support.
And which party is currently the largest in the polls and has most seats in the Dail? Merely claming the Big Three parties represent over 50% is very misleading.
So they will be presenting as a choice for voters in the next election?
FG have nothing to worry about so, they'll still be in government if they fall to the mid teens. Nice work if you can get it.
Never said anything about a Big Three, you are misquoting and misrepresenting me. I said the three government parties.
This is not the UK, it doesn't matter which party is the biggest. It matters which parties are mature enough to form a coalition.
Who knows? It seems that most of the electorate have no problem with a FF/FG/Green government as all are more or less holding their general election position.
The alternatives are pretty scarce. Sinn Fein aren't a credible alternative, so we appear stuck with this government, or a variation of it.
It's the only way those figures are relevant to the next election.
Can't wait for the campaign and FF/FG campaigning together.
I don't entirely understand the question, but if you mean will they present themselves as a choice together for the election then of course not. Ultimately the chances of even close to single party majority that FF enjoyed in the early 2000s is close to non-existent though, so some form of coalition or other will be the govt next time round.
However, presenting the "electorate" as having turned against FF/FG/GP isn't really accurate, considering about half of it supports them.
But you are suggesting that transfers between FF and FG will increase, that is your prediction, not mine, own it.
I am just demonstrating that your prediction means increased seats for FF and FG.
I have never said whether your prediction has any validity, neither have I made my own prediction. I have just examined your prediction and worked out the implications. Feel free to change your prediction, but as it stands, it will lead to increased seats for FF and FG on the same level of vote. That is all that can be worked out at this point.
Who said that they will be campaigning together?
You'd be absolutely certain about FF taking that road?
id say it ll be sff next time around....
FF/SF is a possibility, but I find it difficult to see how FF would accept a lesser role. If FF were bigger, then this is on.
So the 50% is meaningless in a next GE context then.
It may have escaped your notice but SF is the largest party in the Dail and FF is only in second place. It is also the most popular party in the opinion polls. The range of FF support in the opinion polls suggests losses for FF in the next GE though at this remove, these polls are just snapshots of public opinions rather than predictions.
No, it hasn't escaped my notice. In fact, that is one of the reasons why we don't currently have a FF/SF government. I thought that was obvious from what I posted.
Its not meaningless.
After the election there will be protracted coalition discussions. It would leave the current arrangement as an option. There would also be the option of SF/FF. or FF/FG/SD perhaps. Or an incredibly shaky coalition of independents and two main parties.
However, 50% of people apparently are happy enough with the current govt to vote for the parties that are part of it and that might form another coalition. No one can know what will actually happen after an election.
I suspect there is a decent chance of SF leading the next govt coalition (though unless they can go into one with FF I would think it will be shaky). But "the electorate" have not abandoned the current governing parties.
Not really, because if the three parties go the full five years, and are returned after the election with a similar mandate, the default option will be to sit down together again.
I said that opinion polls when they asked about second preference/transfers showed that FF to FG transfers and vice versa were indicating that the electorate were considering the two parties as a single party in terms of transfers. That means, in simple terms, that FF and FG candidates will be competing with each other for votes and that this will have the effect of FF/FG candidates having enough votes between them for a single seat losing out to candidates wth marginally more than the highest FF/FG candidate with that candidate winning the seat without reaching the quota. The whole fratricide concept isn't that difficult to understand. It already happened in the 2020 GE on a smaller scale. My prediction of fratriciding is based on data whereas yours is not.
No, the hard data was worked out in my example.
Increased transfers between parties does not lead to decreased votes for those parties. That is a completely unsubstantiated position and speculation on your part.
What it does lead to is increased seats, all other things being equal, as I have clearly demonstrated.
So effectively, they will be campaigning to go in together again because none of them will be able to form a government on their own. This is what you are saying, even if you won't admit it.
Will we hear FG state that putting FF in government would be akin to putting John Delaney back in the FAI or Micheal Martin claim he will never go into coalition with FG?
Will it though? If SF are comfortably the largest party, there'll be a strong argument that they have a 'mandate' to lead the government. Plus FG will have been in power for nearly 15 years at that stage, probably most people who are not actually voting for them will be sick of the sight of them. FF (and the smaller left parties even more so) will perceive a pretty persuasive rationale for facilitating an SF-led government.
You obviously missed that letter from your dear leader to FG TDs and senators requesting details of their election strategy. Think that Hugh O'Connell had a story on it in the Sindo.
Again, that isn't what I said, that is what you would like. They will be campaigning as individual parties, but if they have a majority after the election, and have worked well together, why wouldn't they sit down together again? The relative strength of each party will influence the policy of the new government.
No one in recent memory in Ireland has been able to form a government on their own so I fail to see the relevance.
Yes, there will be a strong push for them to lead the government. But unless they can actually put a functioning coalition together its all noise. They were not particularly impressive in this regard post the last election, seeming to simply want to be deigned the government without going to the effort of forming a coalition.
That being said, I still think SF/FF is the most likely outcome next time round alright.
FF were comfortably the largest party in the State in every election since 1930 up until 2011 and they often didn't form the government. Being the largest party is therefore not a mandate to lead the government.
Of course, other options will be looked at, but unless something changes, the resistance to allowing SF into government will remain. If FF really want a SF coalition, they will engineer a breakdown in FF/FG/Green discussions to create the conditions for it.
Why would Eamon Ryan be writing to FG TDs and Senators?
'Allowing'?
Smacks of 'our wee country'.
😁
So will we hear the two leaders mentioned (or new leaders) say stuff like that or will they effectively campaign as a potential government?
We haven't been here before with the power swap. Just wondering what the view is.
