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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Winter 2021/2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks

With only a day left to go in Autumn I felt the time was right to open the Winter short range model thread. After a very chilly weekend the final 2 days of Autumn will end on a mild note. We begin Winter on Wednesday and it will turn colder again as winds plunge down from the north.

On Wednesday and Thursday temperatures may struggle to get much past 5C so it will feel fairly chilly in those northerly winds.

Temperatures will stay fairly cool between Wednesday and Saturday particularly over Leinster and Ulster with temperatures struggling in single digits with a chilly north-west airflow up to Saturday.

Rainfall amounts look mostly light across the east and south with about 10mm of rain expected between now and Saturday but western and northern areas could see quite a bit more than this, possibly up 50mm of rainfall there close to the coasts. From Wednesday precipitation could turn a bit wintry across high ground particularly in the north-west.

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Kermit.de.frog

Interestingly GEM/UKMO this afternoon both looking less mobile, slightly more amplified between days 3 and 5 allowing colder air to become more embedded over us next week and teasing some potential frontal zone collisions from the west with that colder air. Surprising short term upgrades of sorts. GFS on the other hand wants to bring in the Atlantic hairdryer ASAP.

ascophyllum

Thanks for posting all those charts Meteorite, very useful. GFS 12z have pulled back max gusts to 114kmh in this part of Mayo, still warrants an orange though I would think.

I get these GFS numbers from windguru, I find they've been groundtruthing very well with the reports from the local stations.

Kermit.de.frog

Happy new year everyone!😃

Need to keep an eye out for this low pressure system just to our south later Monday night/Tuesday

GFS and GEM develop this feature in a way where snow is possible on the northern flank of the associated fronts and southern and south eastern counties most at risk of that snowfall as it's coming up against the cold air from the north.

UKMO/ECM keep it further south avoiding the country altogether, mostly dry but notably colder for a time.

We shall see later if any moves either way...

[Deleted User]

Very interesting little feature, watching with interest…

Donegal Ken

Monday night into Tuesday mornings feature now showing on the GFS and ECMWF model that rain turning to sleet and snow on the northern flank across Connacht and parts of west Munster. Freezing level down to around 400ASL. Will be interesting to see if there is any more changes over the next 24hours. Also a risk of some strong winds in coastal areas of the west and southwest.

Meteorite58

Yes a good test for the models in the upcoming bit of cold weather. GFS showing more in the Western half of the country, could be all very light and sleety in nature but the fact it is falling later in the night might help some snow in higher elevations it to stay on the ground for a time as the cold air settles in. Winds keeping the temperatures up along the coasts, could be frosty and possibly icy inland by Tues morning.

Meteorite58

Latest output from AROME and the GFS

Kermit.de.frog

I think a bit of snow is possible tomorrow night for a time to lower levels but Thursday night looks a better bet with polar maritime airmass feeding in plenty of sleet and snow showers overnight.

A couple of cms possible inland tomorrow night in the southern half of the country which will bring a cheer for some.

On the east coast we'll have a bit of an onshore wind here so looks sleety at best really. Maybe some flakes at the back as it clears south.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118408601#Comment_118408601

This setup has a ring of 10th of December 2017 about it.

sdanseo

Latest TAF from Dublin Airport - no mention of Sleet (RASN) or snow (SN) - only Rain (RA) appears.

New one will issue at 1700Z

TAF: EIDW 031100Z 0312/0412 24013KT 9999 FEW018 SCT030

PROB40 TEMPO 0312/0316 24015G25KT

BECMG 0316/0318 23008KT

BECMG 0318/0320 03017KT

TEMPO 0319/0321 03020G30KT

TEMPO 0319/0323 -RA BKN012 PROB40

TEMPO 0319/0322 4000 RA BKN008

BECMG 0323/0401 34011KT

BECMG 0404/0406 31012KT

Decoded here for anyone not familiar: https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EIDW

JanuarySnowstor

Quite a frigid airmass moving South this evening which has potential to surprise a few hilly areas. I would expect the inland southeast to see quite a bit of falling snow. I doubt it will stick though after such a mild (frost less) two weeks just gone.

Thursday night/ Friday morning looks better more so as the ground will have cooled after this week's frost.

After such a borefest Winter it's a start!!

Shilock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118411062#Comment_118411062

I've a feeling Autumn is over and we're only getting into the Winter now. The growth patterns were very late, anthuriums, sweetpeas and rose's still flowering in my walled garden.... seedlings germinating in the soil etc.

This morning they're all fried, a good cold snap in a week or two would be an advantage for snow and freezing fans.

Meteorite58

Full on wintry weather Thurs into Fri. Blustery Front crossing the country early Thurs morning with a fresh unstable airflow following and dragging in much cooler air producing a large amount of wintry showers of hail rain sleet and increasingly to snow. Unstable enough for large convective weather producing heavy hail with thunderstorms and strong gusts quite possible. Becoming increasingly wintry towards evening with some considerable accumulations possible on elevated ground, enough to make driving very difficult overnight and into Fri morning. Charts below give an indication of where snow might accumulate. Most of the weather in the Western half of the country and coastal counties inland a bit probably getting the most wintry precipitation that might accumulate.

Very windy along the coasts, maybe warrants yellow warnings considering the combination of weather types , considerable Windchill so might be bringing the gloves to work with me 😀

Meteorite58

So looks like three stages to the upcoming spell of wintry weather beginning as the fronts crosse the country in the early hours possibly turning to sleet and snow in Northern areas as it runs into into cold air , how much will fall and when and if it transitions back to rain remains to be seen but more than likely a wet snow on lower levels for a time and decent amounts on higher ground .

Following the front will be a series of troughs and introducing the colder more unstable airmass with the 528dam line crossing the country. Here will turn to wintry showers during the day and increasingly to hail and possible thunderstorms and snow showers well into Thurs night / early Fri morning, some more prolonged wintry precipitation possible locally I would reckon.

Models now picking up what looks like another a more active trough crossing early Fri and or the beginning of an area of Lp which looks to bring more widespread snow, this is one to watch , I think the models might upgrade this more perhaps.

All the models showing different snow depth charts from nothing to a few cm's in places. I would think something like a cross between the ECM and the GFS would be a fair guide at this stage, maybe leaning towards the ECM. Very blustery for a time especially along the coasts and as the fronts crosses the country early morning.

12.00 Thurs

00.00 Fri

12.00 Fri

highdef

Latest GFS run seems to want a small snow event in many midland areas from late tomorrow until afternoon, away from coastal areas. Possible ninja snow event, nothing too major if it did happen and I wouldn't hold my breath either.

highdef

Shilock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118428200#Comment_118428200

Limerick Clare and Kerry zilch, I'm traveling from Tralee to South Galway tomorrow morning via the coast Tarbert, Killimer, Miltownmalbay, Doolin, Kinvara....clear run but no snow 😂

Meteorite58

After the overnight frontal rain turning cooler and showery again, quite windy along the coasts and blustery for a time overland . Convective ability again tomorrow for hail showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. The 528dam line in over Ireland again . Showers becoming sleety, probably only real chance for any snow to settle would be on the highest ground like mountains and maybe some hilltops briefly but turning milder again early Sunday morning .

Billcarson

Often difficult to know during winter regarding high pressure regarding cloud amounts. Perhaps next weeks high will be a cleaner one then the one before Xmas with a better chance of night frosts???

Gonzo

After a rather chilly week with some cold zonality we appear to be heading into a relatively mild and settled spell of weather with high pressure taking over. This is a mild ridge to begin with but it may turn cooler as the week progresses. Tomorrow will be a very mild day with temperatures reaching 11 or 12C across the country and from Tuesday onwards daytime temperatures genearlly 5 to 9C, so nothing too mild or cold.

By Wednesday high pressure will be positioned right over us and there maybe a chance of some sunshine with clear skies at night, so patchy frost is possible from mid week but temperatures even at night may stay above freezing throughout the week until we get to next weekend.

With all this high pressure around there will be very little in the way of rain away from the north-west with most places seeing no more than 1 or 2mm of rain this week. Some places may stay completely dry over the next 7 days. By next weekend we will be exactly half way through this winter and will progress into the second half of winter during the 3rd week of January.

There is alot of uncertainty what happens after this Friday so I've decided to just talk about this weeks weather rather than try and focus what happens during the 3rd week of January.

Meteorite58

After the front goes through Thurs evening much cooler air moves in from the NW giving wintry showers and snow accumulations on Hills and mountains mostly in the NW and N and possibly some snow on high ground in the W. Blustery with some wintry showers along Atlantic coasts coasts, more so in the W, NW, N and possibly a bit breezy overland on Friday, temps look set to be maxing at 6 to 8C near the coasts in the SW, S and SE, much colder in the Northern third of the country, looks like good sunny spells for much of the country. Turning cold after dark with frost in sheltered places, temperatures rising from the W early Sat morning, turning milder as the day goes on .A breezy to blustery weekend in store at times, possibly quite wet during Sat into Sun morning and perhaps showers or some more prolonged rain in places on Sunday when Temperatures will be milder up around 10 - 12C.

Would expect some hail showers along the coasts, remains to be seen if there is enough instability to get a few isolated thunderstorms sparking near the coasts from early Fri. best chances would think in the NW and N.

Some decent rainfall accumulations showing up especially in the NW /N.

Meteorite58

Slow moving trailing front over us for much of the day tomorrow into Sunday when it should break up to showers and ease as the day goes on.

Quite windy tomorrow along the coasts and blustery overland , feeling cool in the wind. Not pleasant conditions with the wind blown rain.

Sunday looking very windy along Northern coasts and blustery inland slow to ease in the evening/ night, looking colder there now also then earlier charts were showing in fact could get wintry showers. Could have frosts Sun night into Mon morning.

Snow accumulations on high ground in Northern counties possible again on Sunday. Looks like a very raw day in Ulster.

Certainly more seasonal weather this weekend.

xx_model-en-318-0_modez_2022020400_73_949_1 (1).png

Meteorite58

Rainfall totals look to tot up again as we move into the early days of next week.

Rain spreading to most areas from the W tomorrow afternoon into Sat, highest rainfall totals in Atlantic coastal counties much less the further E , Galway and Kerry could get 10 to 15mm approx in 24 hrs.

Latest guidance showing Sunday to be quiet wet ( this is still evolving so may change, the chart below is the latest guide.

Monday looks mostly dry apart from some showers around the coasts until rain arrives towards evening in the W and currently looks like producing a of rain from later Mon into Weds ( Rainfall accumulation chart below past 120 hrs but have included up to early Weds morning as the rain begins within the +120hrs to give some kind of an indication of how wet the spell could be )

Model Map - Accumulated Total Precipitation (mm)

Meteorite58

Windy along the coasts and blustery overland during the frontal passage tomorrow into Sat. Less cold on Saturday and turning cold again on Sunday, maybe some sleet on Mountain tops, a bit of white on the Wicklow mountains perhaps.

Will see if it we get a blast of milder and very wet weather briefly brought up from the SW around next Tues into Weds.

squarecircles

That nasty storm has reappeared again for the middle of next week.

Meteorite58

Just coming up to the 120hr mark and the UKMO, GFS, and ECMWF all showing a windy day next Weds associated with a storm getting down to around 950hPa and projected to be well off the NW with a large wind field in over Ireland, models showing from stormy conditions to gale or strong gale but too early to know for sure yet.

Meteorite58

Still holding on to the very windy look for next Weds. The jet looks like whipping up a strong storm off the NW, strength over Ireland all down to the track.

Not much difference between the ECM, GFS and GEM.

GFS looks the strongest for now, UKMO a bit further out for now so keeping the strongest winds to the NW /W.

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1492231613106855937?s=20&t=iMp1DmoovW9z2Zq7UncYCg

Meteorite58

ARPEGE on the upper end of the wind strength predications for Weds and ECM has backed off considerably on its latest output. GFS probably about in the middle for now. Some heavy rain also and turning to wintry showers more so in the NW later Weds into Thurs.

Meteorite58

Huge temperature swings this week. Getting up to around 15C on Weds and later getting cold very quickly in Northern counties and maybe just 8 or 9C on Thurs with a few white peaks on Mountains in the NW.