Your hardly an expert on the matter ,the other one is just as bad
100% nothing will happen. Ukraine won't be joining NATO either.
I'm guessing by your post that you worked in Kabul which would be very different to most of Afghanistan. The United States never understood Afghanistan. American planners thought they knew what the country needed, which was not quite the same as what its people wanted. American policy was guided by fantasies; chief among them was the idea that the Taliban could be eliminated and that an entire culture could be transformed in the process.
These are very old techniques, the British empire used to invade countries claiming they were bringing humanity and civilising these inhumane societies, the USA did the right thing leaving Afghanistan despite what many people say. Let the Afghans decide their own destiny.
On your point about Chechenya, Chechenya has as much right to leave Russia as Crimea has to leave Ukraine, the fact that the majority of people in those places wish to do so is apparently not relevant.
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Russia looking for some breakthrough in negotiations with the west. Russia never had the intention to invade, You have to appear to look serious plus it places Ukraine in the position that joining Nato is out of the question. If you want to stay in power Kiev government keep the status quo. There is no real emergency to send troops in. It sort of blockade thats all it is. But the west is paranoid. Putin bluff and he knows invasion of Ukraine will be costly and not be good chapter in Russian history. Putin often said he feels Ukrainian people are blood brothers. Its government he cares little for and its neo nazi faction armies, but the people he have hard time ordering an attack against them.
Yes Sierra, it did , and suffered an earthquake too the same year in Rostaq, just over the border from Tajikistan. 4'000 people dead, and massive destruction of villages. But as far as the Taliban were concerned it was Ins'h Allah.
So then why are Russian troops massing on the border, if this is just an elaborate scheme by the west? Surely with Russia being such a great power they wouldn't be tricked by mere westerners?
Afghanistan suffered a horrific famine in 1998. Under Taliban rule.
Pressure tactic that's all it is. Frankly, Russia has rebel support to start a war in Donbas again and cause trouble for Kiev government. A new proxy war. Therre no need to takeover the country when you have factions inside the country willing to go war again if needed. Fact donbass is quiet is evidence no war is coming.
Re Afghanistan Sand, I lived and worked there for several years, before sept 11th, under the Taliban and several years later after the US had arrived, and you know something Sand? After sept 11th,the differences were unimaginable. it was a completely different Country...women were going to school and working. University's were fully functioning, road net works were being rebuilt, even main roads linking cities that the desert had taken back, water systems repaired and in Hospitals , the changes were unbelievable. The infant and mother mortality rates dropped dramatically, so that the population increased from 20.78 million in 2000, to 37.3 million in 2021. The effects of the Famines' that regularly occur in Afghanistan, were vastly reduced. And now, the famine presently threatening Afghanistan, is presenting as the biggest global catastrophic event in 2022. Can you point out any other so called "Invader" in history who actually improved the invaded Country? ( there was of course the rebuilding of Germany and Japan after ww2, in which the US played a major role ) As for defeating the US in Afghanistan, what defeated the US was not a military defeat..it was a combination of the efforts of Pakistan and of course Iran, who did not want a successful and independent Afghanistan on their doorstep. So they hampered US efforts to modernize Afghanistan, and it was not helped by the endemic corruption that existed in Afghanistan itself. And now what have we...the Taliban back, everyone cheering the "defeat " of the US by sandal wearing Afghans. Poor Afghanistan, lovely people,,,,,Soon the best 20 years of your recent history will only be a memory.
As for Georgia, Chechnya and now Ukraine,,,none of these Countrys wanted to be part of Russia, why do you think there were wars? As you say, Russia achieved its goals all right, by slaughtering thousands, and dispossessing them from their lands.. what about the rights of these Countrys?? But according to you, No, only Russia has rights.
Ok Jester, good night!
Anyway back to the discussion for the informed - it's interesting that there still isn't a consensus within EU states regarding the response to sanctions.
When nothing happens remember I told you so. Have a good night believing this crap.
They aren't worrying about Kievan Rus in the Kremlin. I think we could all guess they are cranky because they moved 100k soldiers to their border. What are you on about armies heading east?
Many of them are 2000 miles from home barracks.
You might be from the Midlands but in Cork we consider that a fair stretch.
Oh OK, sorry thought you were being serious.
Ukraine is bordering Russia. Putin can move troops a 100 miles doesn't mean much. It is not like there moving across other countries' landmass. They could return to barracks in hours and be home for tea.
Correct but people are underestimating how serious this is in Moscow.
Know thine enemy and such.
That gives Russia precisely zero right to invade.
Why is it highly improbable, given the mass mobilisation occurring? It's looking increasingly likely that the biggest bluff of all was the fact that so many people believed, and some continue to believe, that Russia is only capable of bluffing while it assembled the largest army in Europe since the second world war and primed it for an invasion.
Also, thousands of civilians in Ukraine have already died in the conflict. Nearly 15,000 soldiers too.
Flyover? Flying over what? Ship movements where?
Not that it justifies it but people outside of that region underestimate the sensitivity of the idea of armies going east and the idea that Ukraine is not Russia. The foundation of Russia was in Kievan Rus. Kiev.
Every happy family is alike, every unhappy family is unique.
Bullshit. Did the place a squirrel in the Kremlin to find out.? Every major country has war plans.
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Highly improbable Russia will invade, despite what the Western media telling you. Personally think it's all crap and propaganda. Russia is mass-murdering Ukrainians here a nation that shares a historical history with them. Russian public does want to hear about Russian soldiers killing civilians. Putin bluffing but the western leaders are not smart enough to see it. The reality here it's Nato that most likely cause a blunder in this region by acting recklessly with flyovers and ship movements.
While Russia can certainly perceive a threat from having NATO members physically bordering it, I don't see why that should overrule the perception that those bordering NATO members may have about a threat from Russia which gave them the inclination to join in the first place. After all, Moscow has not been the most benign actor to Poland or the Baltic States over the last century, they have good cause to be cautious.
To help Russia feel more secure in its setting, it can take solace in its having a large, nuclear armed military. That should be sufficient deterrent enough against any escapades from Lithuania or Poland...
Dead Ukrainians do not lose politicians votes in the US. Proxy wars are no problem especially when someone else's voters are the cannon fodder.
The stated goal of the Russians since 2014 is the federalisation of Ukraine so it is no longer a threat to them. In the past Russian citizens/subjects paid the ultimate price when France (chased back to Paris) and Germany (chased back to Berlin) advanced along the European plain which has no natural barriers. That's why they put up the buffer around themselves post WW2. Having a sitiation where the Caucasus can be easily cut off in a matter of days is a risk for the Russian military planners, history has shown it is better that it does not come around.
How Ukraine is run seems to have become a russian problem,since you see Russian green men pop up in Donbass and Crimea from time to time,inbetween fake refererendums and destabilisation.
And western leaders problems can be easily solved by given the responsibility to their military leaders if Russia decides to invade.
I cant even.
Its <the current year>
I also thought it was amusing - and credible - because I've been in those sort of meetings where poorly prepared superiors needed rescuing. The sort of territory where 'The Thick of It' comes to life.
NATO army driving towards Moscow? Even in a hypothetical conversation, the idea of NATO marching on Moscow is ridiculous. . I can't comprehend where this bull comes from, I really can't.
You then go on and try compare Afghanistan, where foreign forces left so the country could govern itself, with areas where Russia invaded and left russian puppets in charge.
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