"Ukraine" will never be a NATO member now. There is a sizeable portion of that territory that want nothing to do with it, and have and will continue to take up arms to keep the Kyiv forces out.
Donbas and a large swath east of the Dnieper will secede.
Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Reflexive control, and the Kremlin’s information warfare generally, is not the result of any theoretical innovation. All of the underlying concepts and most of the techniques were developed by the Soviet Union decades ago. Russian strategic theory today remains relatively unimaginative and highly dependent on the body of Soviet work with which Russia’s leaders are familiar. Russian information operations in Ukraine do not herald a new era of theoretical or doctrinal advances, although they aim, in part, to create precisely this impression.
The key elements of Russia’s reflexive control techniques in Ukraine have been:
• Denial and deception operations to conceal or obfuscate the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine, including sending in “little green men” in uniforms without insignia;
• Concealing Moscow’s goals and objectives in the conflict, which sows fear in some and allows others to persuade themselves that the Kremlin’s aims are limited and ultimately acceptable;
• Retaining superficially plausible legality for Russia’s actions by denying Moscow’s involvement in the conflict, requiring the international community to recognize Russia as an interested power rather than a party to the conflict, and pointing to supposedly-equivalent Western actions such as the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo in the 1990s and the invasion of Iraq in 2003;
• Simultaneously threatening the West with military power in the form of overflights of NATO and non-NATO countries’ airspace, threats of using Russia’s nuclear weapons, and exaggerated claims of Russia’s military prowess and success;
• The deployment of a vast and complex global effort to shape the narrative about the Ukraine conflict through formal and social media.
The results of these efforts have been mixed. Russia has kept the West from intervening materially in Ukraine, allowing itself the time to build and expand its own military involvement in the conflict. It has sowed discord within the NATO alliance and created tensions between potential adversaries about how to respond. It has not, however, fundamentally changed popular or elite attitudes about Russia’s actions in Ukraine, nor has it created an information environment favorable to Moscow.
Above all, Russia has been unable so far to translate the strategic and grand strategic advantages of its hybrid warfare strategy into major and sustainable successes on the ground in Ukraine. It appears, moreover that Moscow may be reaching a point of diminishing returns in continuing a strategy that relies in part on its unexpectedness in Ukraine.
Lol Russian adapted their economy ...
What nonsense is that
@[Deleted User] Now that no such invasion has been forthcoming you can see Uncle Sam ratcheting up the propaganda.
What propaganda ,this is the exact Playbook Russia used to invade 8 years ago ,
Build of forces - were not there little green men ,there are no Russian forces in Ukraine ,it's nothing but russophobia
False flag , were not there but we went in because Genocide was being committed against the Russian population.. we've found mass Graves and sites of massacres against the Russian population . No evidence has ever been produced .
Russia going to the UN to complain about Ukrainian forces firing inside ukraine against aggression (war crimes), but they Russia can fire from inside Russia and hit Ukrainian positions , Russia good ukraine bad
Yada yada yada
Maybe do a little homework
I am sick to death of hearing on the news that there are 'increased fears' that Russia are going to invade Ukraine.
Increased 'fears' and 'risk' every single day when everybody knows it's not going to happen. Pointless broadcasting.
Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic comes to mind after reading that.
You would probably be better off worrying about our own country rather than obsessing about the Russian economy. I heard last night (Primetime or Tonight show, can’t remember) that food price inflation hasn’t even hit yet but it’s coming. We import too much food and the price of transport/fuel will hit hard eventually.
Ironically the sanctions have benefited Russia as they have had to adapt their economy (esp food) and are basically self sufficient unlike us.
Every 2 years or so there are articles warning of an "imminent" russian invasion of Ukraine, or troop buildups on their borders.
If the invasion as far as the dnieper hasnt happened yet, what makes you think it would happen now?
stop trolling here ffs, every time you post you stupidly deliberately miss facts/reality
Its a win win for the US, anything that damages russia, weakens china too in terms of the US maintaining its status as the most dominant force on the planet this is a fantastic scenario for them, they are only itching for russia to attack Ukraine so the world buries them with Sanctions.
You cant argue with a full scale military set up of 100k + troops on the Ukraine boarder, they arent there for tea and biscuits so assuming an invasion is imminent isnt outlandish infact its a normal assumption to make.
It's quite curious that a few weeks ago when the Russian invasion was 'imminent' the Yanks were very quiet and happy to let the Russians tie their own noose.
Now that no such invasion has been forthcoming you can see Uncle Sam ratcheting up the propaganda. Despite Ukraine trying to calm things down and engage in diplomacy, the Americans are starting to prod the bear.
A NATO powerhouse (France & Macron) is now also espousing the importance of diplomacy.
We've gone from Russia surrounding Ukraine in order to invade at any second...to, if something happens it was a 'false flag'. The Yanks are setting the table.
The Yanks are cornering themselves. Thankfully the EU countries are countering Washington's war games.
Heres whats really happening with Russia.
Russia is declining all across the board and is losing its foot hold on the world stage as a power, there Economy is declining, there population is declining they have the lowest fertitlity rate in the world nearly, there military is declining, the country is riddled in corruption.. Putin is becoming desperate as Russia is slowly but surely becoming irrelevant as china takes its place.
They cant win a war economically they cant win it militarily, all they really have is threats in an attempt to stay relevant.
If russia invades Ukraine its checkmate, its economical suicide and they are going to be bogged down in a mass gurrilla war for years and in there quest to stop having nato on there boarder ironically enough they ll have made the boarder bigger.
As for has russia invade dombras and Crimea? really are you actually in all seriousness pretending that didnt happen? Is that the level of discussion you want to have?
And here we go again !!! Aris Antony.....ta siad ar teacht !!!! When Putin withdraws all his military from the border BurgerFace, then with my hand on my heart, I'll say ( and whole heartedly mean!!) BurgerFace was right, there was no invasion. But until that occurs, there is an invasion waiting to happen. That's my position, and I'm sticking to it...
Let's all just step back for a moment.
Now the popular narrative is that Russia are going to invade The Ukraine. Correct so far? They are going to invade and attempt to reestablish the Soviet Empire. .. .So far am I correct?
Why?
I saw a headline today that read "Putin is playing a long game. Current standoff could last a year."
Why would this standoff last a year if a Russian invasion was "imminent" 2 weeks ago? What's it going to be?
If Russia is going to invade The Ukraine then why are we waiting? Have the Russians actually invaded? And if they have invaded Donbass and The Crimea then why are we waiting to fight back? If Russia has already invaded The Ukraine then what is the issue? Why are we waiting for them to take the rest of the country?
Why aren't there masses of troops and tanks across the water just ready to take back Crimea?. To me it's baffling. Why haven't Russia invaded and occupied The Ukraine yet? It ought to be a fairly simple move. Get into Ukraine and take the place over before they are armed by others and offered the chance to fight back.
When can we actually expect this Russian invasion?
Just asking.
MFPM threadban lifted
We're back to the world where Russia is both simultaneously a pathetic joke and the power that runs US and UK politics.
If you don't think Russian influence and money didn't have massive contribution to the brexit misinformation campaign then you weren't following along. Whatsoever.
Think there are more fundamental issues for Russia than that.
Pretending that Russia brought about Brexit, surely you didn't type that in seriousness.
Nato nato nato nato.... Me bollix. To use local parlance.
This is and has always been about Russia wanting to disrupt the EU and its march for unity and economic power.
The same way they pushed for brexit. Brexit trick only works once.
Isn’t that the whole point of the alliance?
Yes, beyond a doubt, great leadership by Vladimir.. in defence of his beloved Country, he is prepared to annihilate the Russian population( and the rest of the world ) if he does not get what he wants... maybe he should consult with the Russian people before he goes down that path?? ( Oh, I forgot...he does not do "Consultation" )
Nato would automatically have to come and defend Ukraine
What’s not true?
Not true ,
There is a high appetite amongst NATO to stop Ukraine being attacked ,Are Russia prepared to be soundly beaten in a military conflict with the west? There whole tough guy routine and image will be severely damaged after they are forced to bend the knee to NATO.
But even if NATO doesn't help, the loses they will take when they take over Ukraine will be savage from the initial war then gurrilla war.
They got embarrassed in afghan the Ukraine will be worse and they will eventually be forced to withdraw.
Now factor in they can't afford any of this and it's a clear picture that there will be no war.
Maybe that was the plan all along.
While Crimea or eastern Ukraine is occupied they can never join NATO as that would automatically trigger Nato to defend.
unless they officially secede Crimea and parts of the east of the country.
Well then everyone loses unless the us have a way to stop Russian missiles which they very well could do with the amount they spend on military in which case the bear gets an even worse going over as they would be nuked to oblivion.
But regardless the Kremlin has no way to win so there won't be a war they are all talk and sabre rattling, ironically enough Ukraine will now be even more determined than ever to join the eu and NATO.
The time the USSR asked to join NATO.
I wonder does Putin realise that if he didn't invade his neighbours, his neighbours wouldn't want to join NATO?
There's no separatists ,only Russian soldiers ,all the so called leaders of the separatists were all fsb agents,
Russian tanks , artillery , mortar's , vehicles sit beside residential properties and population centers,so they have free reign to shoot into ukraine , knowing ukraine won't shoot back for fear of escalation from the Russians , just like in Georgia
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