Seriously Sand, do you think you'd actually be able to appear back in the thread if an incursion does occur? I mean, you're telling us 100 percent what will happen, despite the knowledge that Russia put boots on the ground in 2014.
How will you deal with being a laughing stock if it goes wrong for you? I'm genuinely curious.
LOL.
It's a fact Sandypops, the only people giving Nostradamus predictions are the the Putin cubscouts. Where did ye lot get your powers of prediction?
What condiment will you use to get the stench of crow out of your mouth if you get this cocksure prediction horribly wrong (as you well might)?
Honest question, will you leave boards for good? Because you're throwing down such an anchor with certainty, that you'll look like an even greater clod than you already are.
The above post is proof-positive of the sub-undergradate lens the Putin cheerleaders view things
Russia and China are only ever a few years removed from their next bunfight. A row over influence in Central Asia will be the likely next point of contention.
Unlike Nato alliances that have persisted over decades and in some cases centuries, China and Russia will never have each others back long term, and they'll never lose blood and treasure defending each other in conflict.
It's the malcontents autocratic anti US imPERialiSM wet-dream, but it's only ever going to be a wet-dream.
Oh right, I'm chief now. Well at least it is a promotion. Every time I read your posts I think that is the dumbest thing I'll read today. I forget that you might make another post.
The inevitable retreat? Retreat where? We're talking about Russian troops deployed in Russia.
As for the capital expended - the US has been struggling and failing to drum up enthusiasm amongst European states. The reaction is luke warm at best, and increasingly European leaders are trying to chart a separate solution that doesn't involve cutting off a major supply of energy. They've allowed Russia to make the dispute about NATO expansion. They tried and failed to enlist China's support. Apparently there was a bad phonecall with Blinken and the Chinese where they were given a dressing down. If anything, Russia and China have drawn closer together as a result. They called a UN security council meeting over the crisis where again, the reaction to the US claims was at best lukewarm and often bemused.
And most humiliating of all, they seem to have lost Ukraine from the narrative of defending Ukraine. Even they are now saying the rhetoric needs to cool down, that things are no worse than they were a year ago.
The US is looking very foolish.
The fact remains, the only discount Nostradamus folk who are cocksure predicting what will and won't happen are the Putin brigade, and you're chief among them.
LOL. The drivel you post is so awful it should come with a health warning. So don't worry, no one is going to trawl back through them.
I think it's a fair deal
/s
A diplomatic solution is the ideal, but the Russian list of demands is crazy talk. Their demands are nothing short of that Eastern Europe should be a Kremlin plaything with post-'97 accession states being relegated to second-tier members of NATO and castrated security arrangements. That they believe those demands should be seriously considered under the threat of force is also deluded.
For context, thousands of Russian troops are camped out at Brest in Belarus at this very moment - they could spit sunflower seeds and hit Poland from there, and they want Poland to roll-back their security dispensation? With a Russian vassal state that regularly hosts Russian troops on their door? Absolute nonsense.
They're loathe to admit it, but Putin has made a huge rod for his own back with the current circumstances he has engineered.
For whatever reason, malcontents who harbour an admiration for Putin have fully bought into the '4D Chess' strongman mystique. These are not the actions of a secure and powerful leader, he's taking extraordinary risks with both his own regime and European peace generally.
Like most people, I'm not entirely uncritical of the US, and we're all free to criticize the blots on their copybook. But, I'll be clear about my stance, NATO has successfully backstopped the European peace since the end of the second world war - and it's been one of the USA's major strategic and foreign policy successes. That sticks in the craw of political malcontents but it's a hard truth. And, it's beyond parody that the same malcontents would row in behind someone like Putin, who has consistently shown his willingness to put the Pax Europa under threat because he's in mourning for the halcyon days of Russian greatness (that never really existed in the first instance).
@Sand Russians are telling anyone who will listen that its not going to happen.
The same Russians who said they weren't in Crimea before they illegally annexed it or the same Russians who were not in eastern Ukraine ,
Or the same Russians who said they did not shoot down flight MH17.
Now sand remind which of the above isn't true ???
you obviously didn't get the memo .... if you don't agree with Russia, you're automatically pro-invasion by NATO...
I honestly hope this is sorted diplomatically, but the evidence is starting to lean more to it not.
What political capital have the US expended? It seems to date a fairly low cost endeavor for them. Throw some troops into NATO countries, push Europe to get the thumb out and stand up to Russia. The West doesn't have to do much at all, just sit back and watch Putin dig himself into a deeper hole, until the inevitable retreat. That, or he decides to attack, in which case it's the end of him and his regime.
@Sand
The only people in this thread throwing their anchor down saying something definitely is or isn't going to happen is the Putinista cub scouts. You may well yet end up with egg on your face (which would be a tragedy for Ukraine & the Russian people). You're also far too quick, - and suspiciously so for someone trying to appear even handed - to absolve Putin and cronies for their escalation, threat of force and prior malfeasances against Ukraine.
I know what I posted, so don't even think about putting words into my mouth about the prospect of invasion.
At what point do people start digging themselves out of the hole they've gotten themselves into? Any calm assessment knows that is not going to happen. The Russians are telling anyone who will listen that its not going to happen. The Ukrainians are saying its not going to happen. And the NATO response demonstrates they believe its not going to happen. And still, people aren't ready to give up yet and accept its over. Better luck next year.
People have been squawking about an imminent Russian invasion for 4 months now trying - and failing - to drum up mass hysteria. The US has burnt through a huge amount of political capital, the UK is frankly embarrassing itself under BoJo and Ukraine has been the primary victims of the entirely manufactured instability. It seems that finally calmer heads in Europe are beginning to try diplomacy. I think another poster earlier said that this was a sign of Europe losing all relevance in world politics - nothing could be farther from the truth.
You do realise that France hold the EU presidency, and in lieu of an elected president, the national president takes charge?
i.e. the EU are sending the EU president for talks
Ah, nice breeze over some of the facts behind it, like:
-The US troop build up was part of a pre-declared NATO exercise
-Troops were removed after the exercise
-Russia snuck them into Kaliningrad, denied they were there and only declared them being there after the US caught them out with intelligence (direct breaking of treaty)
-did not remove them after troop draw down after exercise in 2018
Does the US have a nuclear missile delivery system in the Baltic states? No it doesn't
Does Russia have a nuclear missile delivery system in Kaliningrad right next to Poland? Yes it does.
You've been had zv2. You don't think for yourself. Putin isn't some sort of anti-imperial crusader. He's a paranoid ex-low-level spook with fever dreams of being Peter the Great, surrounded by thieves and murderers. The Russian people couldn't get rid of him if they wanted to.
You're brain and critical faculties are under occupation.
shillyshilly: "Because Russia have missiles in Kaliningrad a number of years now, that contravene previous and current treaties"-
"Russia has said previous deployments of Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, a slice of Russia wedged between Poland and Lithuania, were temporary and a response to the United States building up its forces in the Baltic region." Russia deploys Iskander nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad: RIA | Reuters
Ho hum...
Not if its part of Putins hybrid warfare
Because Filatov is a propaganda merchant just like the rest of the rest of the Russian foreign ministry. He reads what's put under his nose by Putin's inner circle. The Russian foreign ministry had been castarated in the last decade and have been reduced to peddling statements and being the last to know things (often after their counterparts in other foreign ministries).
And you eat it up with astonishing credulity.
Because Russia have missiles in Kaliningrad a number of years now, that contravene previous and current treaties
Putin would be foolish not to carve off up to the Dneiper or the bottom qtr corner Which is full of Russians.
Germany, France, Austria, the Dutch are all humming and hawing. The will to impose and maintain sanctions is not there. It marks end of Western Europe as a serious player on the world stage, purely self inflicted.
He has a close relationship with China. He is a leading oil exporter, leading fertilizer and minerals exporter. He has massive cash reserves.
With the current economic climate, it puts more aces in to his hand. Russia stopping exports will be a significant driver of inflation.
Then why is Filatov complaining that NATO have missiles within five minutes from Moscow? That's the problem the Russians have in all this. What if the Russians shipped some missiles to Cuba? Would we have people complaining that the US is telling people what to do?
Macron going on a solo run and validating Russias paranoia - "they're just asking questions". The EU really is a mess diplomatically, no cohesion whatsoever.
there is enough OSINT out there to do any correlation fairly quickly. As you mentioned, usual media outlets who would jump at a chance to catch out any western intel, aren't. You can get tailored debriefs now of images from subscription services from the likes of Maxar etc....
of course you will have people who try to gaslight this with "oh well the west have bought them out" and garbage like that...
personally, I follow the money, and certain troop movements as an indication of what may be happening.
The ISR capability being used in Europe and Ukraine is staggering. With the deployment of the Constant Phoenix to the UK also, it shows what the west think may happen.
if they were so hell bent on starting a war, there are far cheaper methods in doing this than what is currently happening.
It's also quite telling that part of the Wagner group deployment to Mali, which was meant to be long term, and which caused the Swedish to pull out earlier than planned in the international mission there. Have been recalled to Russia.
edit: looks like a bomber deployment to the UK also
If ever there was reason to believe a poster is blatantly not of this country and has fairly close ties to origin this is it.
What does an Irish site provide? A playground to test misinformation? An area to hone colloquial language skills?
Personally unsure but it's interesting stuff.
one tangible reason to ask for their removal is the movement of short and medium range nuclear capable ballistic missiles, which are currently in Belarus.
if any invasion occured, it gives standoff capability against Ukraine. But also range to strike western Europe and Nordics.
(you could argue this has been the case for a while, with the capability Russia have in Kaliningrad, but not on the scale currently in Belarus)
Back to my point, the 8 point de-escalation plan Russia handed to NATO mentions re-negotiation of the INF treaty, which the above is an example of Russias blatant disregard of it in the first place.
pretty standard one rule for me, not for thee... escalate to de-escalate tactics by the Russian side.
edit: mis-quote...
Just wondering if a full invasion happens with Russia invading the rest of Ukraine how long would it take? If they are stating Russia is 70% ready with personnel to invade how much longer realistically will it take them to get to 100% and in that time frame how many more soldiers could the Ukrainian army muster for full time soldiers fully trained as I'm sure there are thousands getting trained at moment, also with civilians getting trained to help fight. Does time in this case more favour Russia with getting from 70% to 100% or with Ukraine able to get more soldiers trained up in the same period, civilians as well, more positions set up and equipment as well. Supplied by the USA etc. With this going on who benefits more out of the 2 before if it does happen and hopefully not a war between the 2.
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