Hi All,
I see massive losses in the last month and wonder if it's the end of golden crypto era?
Would love to hear your thoughts.
Crypto is becoming the next dot com bubble at the mo - there is massive amounts of money being poured into it - lots will lose all their money and this includes big big companies etc. Personally think HEX and ADA are highly risky tokens, many tokens were on their way to the moon only to crash land and never be heard of again...BTC continues onwards, ETH should as well but history says it's not guaranteed. Metaverse is interesting, NFT's all look scammy but could lead to digital identities or something of a similar ilk or could be all nothing next year
But crypto is here to stay, it's maturing, the cream will rise and on the back of those other avenues will open up with wiser investment and not just pumping into what someone with more money than sense thinks will be the next big thing. There are too many big companies involved for it to fail completely
Too many people look at the sh*t coins and think that's what it's all about whilst most in crypto know better, scams (nothing to do with crypto) have been happening way before crypto, continue to happen and will never stop
Peter Schiff is the very last person you should be listening to for anything crypto related and is a joke figure and a meme in the crypto "community".
He's a bitter old gold bug who has consistently doubles down on being wrong about Bitcoin etc. He absolutely loves all the attention and notoriety though.
Crypto isn't going anywhere and I have mixed feelings on it if I'm honest. While I do agree that many coins are a scam and should be avoided some have genuine revolutionary concepts behind them.
Bitcoin could be a pan global currency that can be used in times of uncertainty and protect individuals against a rapidly devaluing currency.
Ethereum is trying to incorporate smart contracts that basically code into the blockchain.
The space has obviously expanded massively since and the ideas that are generated by some brightest people around are not going to go by the way side. Smart people who are passionate are going to make some good stuff.
Adoption will take time of course and who knows what and how long it will take to be used broadly.
crypto starts @ 27:30
For the tech.
imagine Samsung announced it was going to make a console to rival PlayStation and Xbox, billions invested on this new cutting edge tech and then after 5 years they decided not to release it, so say fûck it , we will sell the tech and try get some of the money invested back, Sony & Microsoft would snap it up to complement their own research, same thing going on here.
You been working on some complex problem and here is a solution you can just buy and save years of development, why would you not buy it if you could afford it?
Imagine you had a team working on the following and a ready made solution was offered to you, be mad not to take it and move on to the next step, get a lead on your rivals developing a similar project. First to market advantage and all the benefits that brings
Money for old rope.
comment - Can someone explain to me, preferably using small words, why the everliving fúck someone would pay $200 million for a failed crypto coin property? Trying to figure it out is making my brain feel like it's dividing by zero.
Shh. Get in while it's low.
Only getting started
Good posts on McWilliams above, most of which I'd agree with.
A problem I'd have with him is that he presents his arguments in a very self-confident manner as if the rest of us just need to catch up with his perceived wisdom and everything will be grand. Crypto and money are complex topics that can't be distilled into easy soundbites. His latest article in IT and related podcast about how crypto can't be a currency (inspired by a Stephen Diehl article) is so outdated it's laughable.
Another podcast I listen to is The Other Hand by Chris Johns and Jim Power and they've been pontificating about crypto too but at a very superficial level. They've started to mention the BTC price now in their bi-weekly podcasts and disparage it in the context of its volatility, but neglect to mention its price rise since March 2020, or 2008 for that matter! To me it's clear that they don't understand anything substantial about crypto.
What isn’t a Ponzi scheme? Art, stocks, precious minerals or property, they all require someone willing to pay more for the asset. Same for NFTs, they are valuable as long as people believe they are. I guess with property at least you can live in it. The detractors do seem to be overly bullish on one of the alternatives though.
I like McWilliams podcast generally but his crypto stuff is very surface level and a bit dated. He's been trying to bait people a bit on twitter, then declare crypto heads as touchy and I couldn't see a whole ton of people reacting.. at least directly on the tweet. He's covering it cos it generates clicks. This is why he's covered derelict property about 6 times in the last two years.
Latest podcast he backed off his negativity about Bitcoin in the last episode. Just said he was warning people to be careful with it for the next while. Which I wouldn't say is terrible advice at this point in the market.
Blockchain tech is going to be useful the way I see it. But it's maybe going to be slower executing on its promise than I initially thought. I'd still say its probably the best thing you could do with your money if only stable farming cos putting it in a bank account doesn't have a ton to recommend it and the property markets has potential to put you hundreds of thousands in the hole faster than crypto if you time it poorly.
Yes. Now sell me all your coins
With high volatility you get either huge gains or massive losses. That's the beauty of crypto.
It will harden you up over time to the kind of drops you can take, this is nothing, now another 50% drop and then we'll be talking.
Those in 6 figure hell holding crypto assets are hardcore.
As regards ponzi, buying stocks, gold, silver and other assets is basically the same thing. FUD is designed to shake out the paper hands.
I'm not worried about Crypto this year. I've changed strategy a little though. My monthly DCA is being reduced by 50% with the other 50% used to build a cash position.
It's going to be a bearish Q1, and probably Q2. I suspect we'll find a bottom sometime in Q2. This is when I'm going to use my cash position to hopefully catch it somewhere around the bottom. I think the marker will flip bullish in Q3, because of the mid-term elections in the US, and Biden will not want to head into that with a beaten stock / crypto market. The feds money printer will be out in action again.
We'll probably see a new ATH in Q3 or Q4. I do think that the lengthening cycles theory that has been spoken about will play out. We might even stretch out the run until 2023. Could we break 100K this cycle, I absolutely believe we will.
Time will tell if I'm right,
This is the 435th time that Bitcoin has "died". 😉
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
Did anybody see HBO's recent documentary about Beanie Babies? The timeline might be different, but the psychology is the exact same.
In my view crypto is overdone right now.
A lot of the inflows of money over the past few years has been money seeking higher returns due to lowering interest rates.
Now interest rates look like increasing, some of that money is being pulled out of crypto.
I can see some bigger coins having big falls as rates go up.
I've listened to his podcast since he first started. I think he has very interesting insights on many different areas and has great guests on. Every so often he has featured cryptos but it was always clear that he didn't know anything much about them. Even the guests that he featured on that topic were pretty bad - either people who thought it was a scam or in the case of Ezra Klein people who are so super pro-BTC that they're basically away with the fairies.
McWilliams seemed to be on the fence himself. I think he was torn between his urge not to be a luddite (and particularly not to be out of touch with the youth of the day) whilst also really eager to declare that that they're a big scam. One recurring theme of his is his obsession with the "currency" element of it - basically some variant of "bitcoin can't be a real currency because it's finite and scarce" even though most proponents of crypto have moved beyond seeing it as a form of money particularly in the era of web3.
That podcast last week seemed to be him finally deciding to come down off the fence and declare it all as a scam once and for all. He's nailed his colours to the mast now and will have to live with it. For some reason Off the Ball then had him an as if he was some kind of expert on cryptos. I suspect he'll be dining out on this for a while, especially in a Bear market. I'll be very interested to see what he does during the next bull market (and yes there will be another bull market - cryptos aren't going anywhere OP - have a look at the log curve for the price of BTC since it's inception)
Anyone joining the Crypto Ponzi scheme now is very foolish. Listen to the latest David McWilliams podcasts if you want to understand Crypto. He nails the lunacy of the scam.
Stocks are crazy atm, a lot of tech has plummeted.
Ah shur it had to end at some point
More than an ounce of truth in that sentiment perhaps 😂
This is the dumbest **** I've ever read. FIAT money and pensions are also massive Ponzi schemes in that case.
Christ above, people have said similar after each of the previous crashes, and people will say the same in the future when it rallies and crashes again. How are people not aware it's all cyclical at this stage, look at the historical price charts. Everything is down at the minute, not just crypto
Decent read.
What sort of macro conditions?
Not sure what you mean by era? Crypto is certainly not finished, if that's what you meant. There's far too much work going on in the space for it to disappear. Its future seems inevitable, but no one knows the timeline.
As for whether this is the end of this bull run, no one knows. Macro conditions are causing a lot of volatility across lots of asset classes right now, with riskier assets taking a bigger hit.
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