Not just them but some of the former Soviet countries have large Russian support. I've known quite a few Latvians for example and most of them described themselves as Russian.
I think Putin backed himself into a corner. Dont think he thought Europe and the US would give it back to him this time. Suppose thats what happens when you let a bully get away with things for years.
Would be very putin. Perish the thought he was remembered for dying with Parkinson’s or whatever. Wouldn’t be allowed.
I agree with the legacy argument.
Putin is most likely suffering from severe disease, some say Parkinson's but it could be any one of a number of neurodegenerative diseases.
With the West as weak as it is, this is the optimum opportunity to go out with a bang - to borrow another poster's phrase.
I think it’s obvious he’s a very intelligent person, I mean, how many presidents have managed to gain power and convince the public to change the constitution to allow him to be president indefinitely..
but some of the things he does are sort of stupid. The Ukraine is one of them. Like saying “no we’re not invading”, like that’s pretty stupid. Cmon, you’re not there for a sun holiday guys.
i suspect it’s a classic case of knowing his quite intelligent, but thinking everyone else is not, so I can use my superior mind to trick your stupid mind.
He's a common garden variety gangster and bully
I think people have a distorted view of what Putin is like. He is very intelligent and poised. He worked for the KGB in Berlin mostly as something inocuous, he wasn't some Soviet secret assassin
It's been reported he's has parkinson's disease and various tremors affecting his hands and legs , he's made less and less public appearances over the last few years,
At it's nothing to do with covid
There were plenty more than 3...
normal training, jets are based out of Lakenheath
it wasnt just that. they actually believed in him. really believed he was restoring russian pride and bringing strength back to the country. they all enthusiastically supported him.
There's a million and one reasons. I was just giving the general jist of this issue.
Economic distractions. Russian nationalistic fervor. Europe's energy dependency on Russia's gas. The gas pipelines through Ukraine. Europe totally distracted with internal Covid issues, protests. Global Inflation. Weak American administration. The power shift to China. NATO troops already in Ukraine. Adding a couple of million votes to his portfolio from the disputed areas. Control of the Black Sea. Flood Europe with refugees to further polarize EU politics.
Generally, all of the rivals are weak. Now is the time to do it. But all of the other stuff too.
From what I understand it is Germany & Europe that will bear most of the (high) costs of strong sanctions (perfect on top of Covid-19 pandemic). They are not going to do it unless they have to. Germany have not "blocked" others sending military aid, given that as you mention the UK has delivered anti tank missiles and I think some EU countries have sent similar kinds of weapons to Ukraine also.
I think if they (Russia) really do go through with this nightmare/absolute disaster, you will see Germany back strong sanctions despite the costs and the pain, and the gas supplies or pipeline investments etc. they have made won't stop that from happening.
Seeing many comments about how Russia would get bogged down in Ukraine. Personally, I think a direct invasion is extremely unlikely (for many reasons) but hypothetically if it were to occur, apart from some pockets of resistance, I think technically (morale aside) the Russians would move very quickly to Kiev. It's one thing for the Ukrainians to fight limited proxy Russian forces in Donbas, an entirely different thing to take on an unlimited Russian military striking them hard and fast, taking down and hacking all critical infrastructure, etc, etc.
Whilst I know the Ukrainians are relatively well prepared, and some of the more experienced units would probably fight quite well in certain pockets, I think on a national level there would be little stomach for it and the country would actually crumble quite quickly.
That's in a "on paper" fight. On the flip side, how much fight and motivation would the Russian military have in them? no amount of propaganda can mask the fact that they are the black/white villains of this situation. It would be straight up text-book Third Reich, lie and invade stuff, and I think there'd be a reluctance there. Despite how much of a grip the propaganda apparatus has over there, I think we'd see many Russians in the streets protesting it. Large domestic protests is one of the few things that definitely rattles Putin.
Anyway, I still maintain a direct full-on invasion is extremely unlikely, but obviously all opposing players have to act like it can and will happen.
i worked with some russians and i'd ask them about putin. they all loved him and thought he was a strong leader. even after i tried debating them about corruption and election fraud etc etc...they were having none of it or didnt care. i reckon a lot of the population back putin 100%
I couldn't really give a hoot if the Russians took out Westminster.
Germany has shown a marked reluctance to hold Russia to account. That's a monetary decision.
Certainly the City of London should be cleaned up. At least the tans delivered a few plane loads of anti tank missiles, Germany has blocked others from acting in helping the Ukraine defend itself.
That's all that there is.
Dont forget he needs to have an enemy to blame and distract the Russian population with as they are gradually and finally waking up to the scam hes been playing on them and their economy for his entire time in office.
Ukraine has a large Russian ethnic population, about 20-30%, mostly to the East and Crimea
In 2013, the pro-russia president was about to sign a free trade agreement with the EU. Vlad got on the blower and said "wtf are you up to, son". Then Vlad offered him a great gas deal and Ukrainian president backed out of the EU trade deal.
The Euromaidan protests/riots kicked off then. This was a mix of young Ukrainians that wanted to join the EU (to get the hell out of Ukraine) and a Far-Right Group called the right sector. The riots went on for 2-3 months and was bordering a street war. The president then gave up trying to find a solution and fled the country to Russia (with a bag full of cash).
The east of the country and Crimea were pissed off, it was seen a coup by the Right Sector. They kicked out the Ukrainian police/armed forces out of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk/Donbass (with help from unofficial russian soldiers). Crimea was anexed my Russia but Luhansk and Donbass declared independence away from Ukraine, with a view of joining Russia.
Vlad essentially wants to bring Luhansk and Donbass into Russia. And possibly other areas like Kharkov and Kherson oblasts, who have large Russian populations.
He also wants to warn off other bordering ex Soviets to not play ball with the EU and NATO. And also set up Russia's defense line to the dniper River. Plus obtain warm weather, deep sea ports for trade and navy because everywhere else freezes over during winter.
I'm not shoehorning "Brexit" in here. It is obviously relevent even if you don't appear to like that fact very much for some reason...why so I wonder?
Also referring to "75 years ago" (i.e. 1947), you know well that Germany potentially throwing its weight about continued to be a worry for many decades after WW2. The "West" didn't want (West) Germany "demilitarised" either, they wanted it to be entirely non-agressive (with a pacifist Constitution I think) and act only defensively on the front lines under a NATO structure should the Warsaw pact ever invade. When the Soviet Union broke up, the need for that (and so for a large German military to defend agianst the invasion threat) was supposed to have ended. Margaret Thatcher even opposed German reunification (1990) afair. Why was that?
Germany has not given Russia any "green light" here by buying some fuel off it. Over period of Merkel and her predecessor they probably thought trying to trade with + relate to Russia as a somewhat normal country would actually be more likely to avoid any more wars etc. The dependence goes (or should go) both ways of course, the customer and (edit) supplier. I suppose establishing that relationship was realpolitik, if not quite as you seem to mean it. How utterly awful of them.
If you want to talk about gas Germany + the rest of Europe uses and the position it now puts them in if there needs to be sanctions, we could also refer to the UKs addiction to healthy inflows of wealth from Russian oligarchs and also from many other corrupt autocracies around the world and negative effects it may have on their political system.
I'm not glued into the news much but I know there's a storm going down between Russia and Ukraine.
What is it about?
What does it mean?
Can someone please educate me? Is it serious?
USAF have 3 planes in North Sea UK waters right now
When I clicked onto it on flight radar 24 it said it was a mustang. A plane has wings is as far as my knowledge goes. The pic that come up on FR24 had one that was darker and sexier looking 😉
What site can you identify the russian ships?
No, there will be no global war.
Russia still only has an economy the size of Belgium and Holland combined.
It can only fight for so long.
Shoehorning Brexit in to this is more than a stretch.
Maybe it is ironic that countries in the West wanted a demilitarized Germany 75 years ago, that's a good bit ago.
Germany has given Russia a green light. It's not taking a pacifist stance, it's taking a realpolitik position. Keep the gas cheap and trade going and let what happens, happen.
Whatever Trump, Johnson, Brexit or the 3rd Reich feel about it is irrelevant.
We could do with some cover for whats going on off the Cork coast clearly part of the disruption next time they may come ashore
Hope Simon is banging tables damanding action
is the 10th Mountain Division not a mountain unit anymore?
"The RAF have 3 fighter jets, a mustang and their trainer helicopter out and about"
Wait, a what?
You found Covid tough?
There will be no invasions.
Nato can sit back and watch Russia bull into a quagmire in Ukraine, whilst sending them supplies to chew up Russian forces. All the while destroying the Russian economy and Putin's only leverage to stay in power.
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