The size of the Force they are amassing suggest they're planning to go big,
I'm still think they will take everything on the black sea as far as Moldova this then gives them the ability to claim the blacksea and expel nato and stop Ukraine from having ports of any kind
Russia won't go beyond the Dnieper River. They basically just want Luhansk, Donbass and maybe Kharkov. The areas of Ukraine with strong Russian ties.
They most certainly won't be trying to take a city like Kiev. The Easy oblasts in East that have large ethnic russian influence
The Montreux Convention restricts non-Black Sea states to a certain tonnage in the sea at any one time, but NATO states exercise right of passage regularly and coordinate that there are Treaty states present pretty much year-round. So while it could be interpreted as a move on the chessboard, it was likely planned for some time.
The convention is a source of contention for Turkey as they believe it has led to the Black Sea to being turned into a glorified Russian lake.
Spain sending a warship to the blacksea, Brits sending new gen anti tank equipment, Canada also sending a warship.
Be interesting to see if the US, Italian and Turkish forces in exercise in the Med might be making a course change.
There's a massive difference between Crimea/Lukhansk/Donetsk and west of the Dnieper river in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army certainly can't compete with the Russians but at a minimum they can make life extremely difficult for them especially using guerrilla tactics if Russia tries to hold territory there.
They didn't roll over last time when Russia invaded and tried in vein to sieze more land and ports .
The Ukrainians are better trained , equipped and paid than previously and the minor issue of they hate russians
The Ukrainian army will roll over. They are just guys looking for a steady salary. A large chunk of the army would be ethnic Russians too and will flip sides, no problem. It happened in Crimea, where large chunks of their armed forces just defected, and the rest of the units just said "fupp that" I ain't fighting, we don't have a chance.
Of course there will be Ukrainian patriots that will fight to the death but they are so small in numbers on the grand scale of things
Well, the the Ukrainians will answer the call to arms, just a question of getting enough arms for all of them, and that's literally a work in progress. Extended supply likes? If the US get involved, you can be sure that the EU will also be involved, so plenty of bases nearby to resupply from, not to mention that they will have access to Ukraine itself. In any case, distance has never been a major problem for the US,,,anywhere in the world. I guess you have never seen the US military Logistics in action? Then the jibe about pronouns,,,,Bullshit. I've seen them up close and personal in action, and its not their pronouns the enemy will be worried about. Don't read too much into Russian propaganda. A pound to a penny, the US military have now ( and for quite awhile, years in fact ) planning in place for just such a scenario as is developing ( and lot of other scenarios too, world wide )
How does one covertly mass an invasion force across a landscape as vast as Russia in this day and age?
A "covert" invasion of Ukraine? How would that go exactly? Invisible paint on their tanks?
just need to follow the money....
no country is going to move that amount of people for the craic...
amphibious ships which were stalking Gotland the last few weeks have now left for the North Sea (presumably towards the Black Sea), the same guys who were involved in Crimea
Russia have started exercises with Belarus, which are looking to overtake the numbers that were there for Zapad 2021 (close to 200,000 troops).... with the evidence that short and medium range ballistic missiles are being moved as part of this "exercise" it will give Russia a more robust stand off capability, which many think won't leave Belarus...
Allied forces didn't have the busiest day for ISR missions in a non active warzone, on 18th January, for no reason....
Recorded were over 10 different aircraft in the Baltic and Black seas, and that doesn't include the various drones and U-2 flights which weren't
UK have setup and air bridge ferrying anti armour weapons, with Canada and America to follow suit
anyone who doesn't think something it brewing is blind
"I know who i would be putting a bet on, and its not the army worried about pronouns"
Oddly, pronouns isn't something we're worried about. The regulations on that are pretty clear and haven't been changed in years. We've more important things to worry about.
No I have not 🚫
But yes Russia has moved 100,000 + men , vehicles , armour , artillery, naval assets ,air defense forces, electronic warfare and numerous other forces on to the border of Ukraine,
But yes I'm sure it's all fake news like the Time Gatling said they invaded Crimea with the little green men and then shot down flight MH17 killing all on board,
Funny hey !
Gatling has been telling us for the last 12-18 months that all-out war is imminent.
He has been fantasising about it so long that his mickey has been rubbed to a wick.
Lol...
Sorry your wrong
"Anyone who thinks Russia isn't planning a full invasion is clearly not watching"
Anyone who thinks they are is a idiot!
If they where it would be covert, you don't make a scene of it and draw attention, this is all for the gullible to lap up and put pressure on western politicians to declare their position on the matter, there will be no war.
In actual news
Russia is demanding the US strong arm the hawkish Ukrainian regime ,
Them Russian are smoking crack .
And the Russian Baltic fleet has left the Baltic enroute to the blacksea with amphibious assault vessels , Corvettes ,Mine layers and others support vessels ,
Anyone who thinks Russia isn't planning a full invasion is clearly not watching
Too many readers of Tom Clancy books posting here.
If war breaks out here are the facts
Ukraine politicians already calling for civilians to fight, an admission the army ain't up to the task
USA does not have the stomach for 10k casualties per day, still shocked over 58K Vietnam war dead, an afternoon for Russia in the great patriotic war
USA for the first time ever will not have air superiority, Russia will run out of targets before it runs out of anti-aircraft missiles
USA will have extended supply lines, Russia will not.
On and on it goes, put down the Playstation games, it wont be like Call of Duty and think before you post, we would have Russian units in the French county side within a month and nothing other than nukes could halt them, and they are unlikely unless the world goes completely mad
I know who i would be putting a bet on, and its not the army worried about pronouns
Uncle Joe has blurted out the plan that was arranged a few weeks ago
. No wonder they don't let him answer questions.
Basically they'll formally take Luhansk and Donbass.
Russia are not and we're never planning on a full invasion. There won't be tanks rolling into Kiev any time soon.
Russia gets its area back, the Russian majorities in these areas get what they want, Ukraine get rid of their ungovernable eastern regions and gets a lot of weaponary, Vlad has a big Dick, EU will release lots of statements, the US don't have to get involved.
It's a winner for everyone bar the Ukrainians still in Donbass and Luhansk. Although most have likely left by now.
The Ukrainian president will look very weak though. And Joe Biden will have to offer him a lot because they'll have a lot of dirt on Biden Jr.
His last efforts seen a rag tag bunch of militias hold off his army who massively outnumbered and out gunned them,
That rag tag of militias have been incorporated into the the Ukrainian military and given better training and better equipment ,
The biggest issue is if putin rolls into ukraine the whole of eastern Europe and the Baltics will be in his grasp ,he already has been 120,000 - 200,000 men on Ukraines border ,this isn't a going to stop at ukraine
Putin wants to humilate NATO and he is throwing the kitchen sink (building an attack minded force for years) at Ukraine he will crush them in a week.
Only thing will stop him is US boots on the ground
Seems pretty clear what's going to happen now. Putin as a classic strongman type leader cannot back down on his demands without looking incredibly weak. And NATO absolutely cannot give him the guarantee he wants or they might as well dissolve NATO. A non member simply cannot dictate whether any country can join the alliance. Putin will invade and there will be no direct military involvement from other nations other than the poor Ukrainians on their own (albeit backed up by a **** ton of arms and behind the scenes support from the US and Europe). It will be bloody. There will be harsh sanctions on Russia but Putin will have won in his mind. After that, it's cold war territory. Putin will be emboldened and who knows what he'll try next.
One would guess it has to do with the invitation of the hosts.
We can call out the west ,the US ,EU on a daily basis on here and in the media ,
Call out Putins actions and all we get is the usual bluster of nato have surrounded and are preparing to invade Russia ,no evidence ,no proof of the various claims and a ton of troll accounts supporting the actions against ukraine and elsewhere because Ukraine and Ukrainians don't want to be in Russia .
Seems they have this notion that Ukraine has to be punished for wanting to make their own choices and not what putin wants
Ah to be young again...
Some people can't separate an administration from the country, which they've already personified in their heads. As far as they are concerned, some countries are "evil", therefore opposing countries are "good", which is obviously dumb as bricks. They also often have difficulty with the concept that two opposing administrations from different countries can be criticised to varying degrees. Always present in threads like this.
This might be blow your mind, given the reflexive cry babying about the terrible West to show how noble you are, but.... what if there's multiple bad guys? 😲
Because of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which was agreed by Ukraine, Uk, Russia & USA.
Under this agreement the UK & USA agreed to support the Ukraine if it's sovereignty is threatened which Russia accepted. So the UK is entitled to support Ukraine which it is doing now with the supply of 1500 tank busters they have donated as well as training support.
Just a matter of time before Biden understands it's obligations also and they join Canada as well in offering assistance. No need for NATO to get involved at all now.
In one incident, regime forces assisted with Russian forces attacked a section held by Yazidis, who were supported by the US. Despite being outnumbered, the Yazidis and US demolished the attacking forces.
Outnumbered 8-1 or something like it and wiped out the combined Russian forces along with proxies and regime forces ,
The intercepted comms are interesting Russians begging for help with most of their forces destroyed but nobody came to rescue them,
Russia denied it ever happened ,but ran with stories of how their forces stormed an underground bunker killing American ,UK ,eu and Israeli special forces 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Not true. The regime was on the ropes, anti regime forces were actually inside the security ring protecting Damascus, and it was thought that it would fall within a week or two. Then Assad called in the Russians, and after extensive discussions and agreements being signed, they came. First they attacked anyone who threatened the Regime, because they wanted to protect their newly acquired asset. And there after, it was the same procedure. At one point when the Assad forces were running out of fuel,( isis controlled the Syrian Oil fields) The Russians, who had plenty of fuel, did not offer it to the regime, letting them stew until they needed to be rescued again ( for a fee of course ) This was what played out throughout the war. Most of the really serious on the ground fighting was done by the Yazidis, Syrian free army, supported by US forces. In one incident, regime forces assisted with Russian forces attacked a section held by Yazidis, who were supported by the US. Despite being outnumbered, the Yazidis and US demolished the attacking forces. But in deference to Putin, it has to be said, with Syria, he has played a blinder.
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