@MarkEadie If Russia invades or annexes part of Ukraine which seems likely at this point,s the US won't be responding with any military comeback and if they did it would be one of the stupidest things they have ever done,
Why would it be stupid
Kazakh policemen were mutilated and decapitated by your gallant ‘protesters’.
That means they were murdered by bloodthirsty Jihadi terrorists. The Kazakh authorities were correct to clamp down immediately on terrorism, it’s the only language that these head choppers understand. There was nothing peaceful about these protests.
Ah, if it was so simple. The probable chain of event, as I see it: 1) Peaceful protests were triggered by rising gas prices, 2) Tokaev saw the chance to oust Nazarbaev and his people out of power, told police to do nothing, 3) then Tokaev invites extremists in. You may think that this is preposterous. But consider the next step: 4) Tokaev invites the Collective Security forces (Russian mostly) to come in to quell the protests. They duly arrive only to find that they have nothing to do, the protestors were cleared off the streets. Why would Tokaev ask for help? That's the clever bit -- to gain legitimacy by forcing Putin to support Tokaev. He, Tokaev, asked for help and Putin jumped in. And when Russian forces are there, he already has the situation under control and sends them back. What did Nazabaev do? Nothing, and that makes him irrelevant, which is the point.
Median comes to mind
Some of the weapons that US forces ‘forgot’ to take with them when they pulled out of Afghanistan couldn’t have ‘made their way’ to Kazakhstan via Tadzhikistan or Kyrgyzstan by any chance?
Of course not, that’s a preposterous suggestion.
No, it sounds like the closest an undemocratic country like Russia gets to democracy. An interview on Irish TV with a minute number of Russians doesn't really give you insight into the reality of Russian politics. I would however totally accept that Russians have had worse, that doesn't mean that what they have is democracy though.
A bit like those Russian missiles used to shoot down a civilian airliner over Ukraine , imagine those Russians tanks destroyed in Ukraine fell out of the sky too .......
Ukrainian government websites came under cyberattacks today with messages written in Ukrainian, Russian and polish ,
Telling people to be very afraid and expect the worst
Looks like Russia may be preparing a false flag operation according to some news sources. May find out more in coming days.
More Russian tanks and IVFs have been arriving by the train load in the last 48 hours too ,
Something was pointed out Russia cannot afford to keep the 120,000+ troops deployed on Ukraines border long term , putin was hoping for quick win over nato ,all he's getting is countries wanting bigger NATO deployments and more countries preparing to counter him ,
Sergi lavrov is spouting about a big nato build up preparing to do something to Russia except there is no nato build up in or near Ukraine .
They didn't need false flag operation when they took Crimea, they won't need one now.
What they'll use as an excuse is the refusal of US to commit to their demands. That will be sufficient for the Russian population, and then they'll attack. They will not invade the whole Ukraine, they are not that stupid, and from previous episodes we know how Russia operates. They will take some minor areas with Russian ethnic majority, and that will trigger chain of events...
That is, in case they really want to attack Ukraine.
Indeed. I doubt it would be linked to any full-scale invasion, but the key for Russia is to keep applying pressure and making small escalations in order to gain concessions. They are really testing the resolve of the Biden admin and Europe.
But if nato and the eu and the us sit back and keep saying no we're not going anywhere and Ukraine isn't alone , putin will be forced to either go the full invasion which Will be extremely costly or withdraw his forces because he can't afford keep 120,000 + men and equipment sitting there costing him hundreds of millions with no gain's ,
He invades he faces massive monitary consequences along with military consequences ,
It's all well and good going to war but the Russians suffered losses against a rag tag of militias made up of football holligans , who have spent the last 7 years being trained and equipped better to defend against Russian forces ,
Look at the separatists living in trenches in East Ukraine , they are there because Russia is paying them to be there because they have no other opportunities to them, man the trenches and we will pay you a small wage and a Russian passport,
the Russian taxpayer is funding the Donbas region ,but are getting nothing in return
And that's before Russia loses access to international credit lines.
Ex Kazakhstan maybe????
No, only lightly armed militia forces and ordinary road vehicles were sent to Almaty.
Whatever is arriving at the Ukraine border are front line mechanised and armoured battalions.
That would be a huge mistake in a year of French presidential elections and US mid-terms.
Chancellor Scholz will be looking to make a name for himself as well.
I think if Russian units move in to Ukraine proper in any organised strength, they might be very surprised at the state-of-the-art Western gear that greets them and manned by 2 million very well motivated volunteer Ukrainians who have been trained to use them.
They sent armour vehicles as well to Kazakhstan ,
But to answer jmreire no , definitely seems a bigger force than what we seen lined up going to Kazakhstan ,
OK.maybe he will need these lightly armed militia forces a bit nearer to home in the future....
You think Russia is like North Korea or something. Russia can do pretty much what it wants like it did with Crimea and will do again here. The US are not stupid enough to take Russia on at this point unless it's absolutely necessary, which in this case it isn't. If they do, then good luck to them because they will need every bit of it.
Of course it's absolutely necessary.
WTF is the point of NATO if it intends to appease and appease and appease threats to its interests and to democratic countries in the region with shared values. The former Yugoslav republics were in NATO when it reacted in the 1990s and Ukraine has every chance of ending up in far worse scenario than Bosnia or Croatia of those times.
Russia is gone beyond taking the piss with respect to violations of sovereign territory. NATO already made a grave error in 2014 by not embarking 250,000 troops from Bulgaria or Romania, crossing the Black Sea and f**king the Russian occupation force out of Crimea on its ear.
By not doing so the problem has been compounded and by not dealing with these current threats, the challenges will only be worse down the road.
Russia doesn't fight large , modern , professional militaries ,
Bombing civilians to the stone age is their current strategy in the middle east ,the launched a surprise attack on Georgia ,but when Russian tanks and planes started taking losses ,the Russians decided to fall back ,most of the damage was done to civilian infrastructure ,not military targets.
Russia will not fight the US ,they have shown the Russian doctrine which was deployed by the Iraqis during desert strike , Large tank formations which make up the forefront of Russian warfare ,is redundant when you take modern airpower and anti tank weapons into it ,
The Russians were slaughter in Afghanistan ,and Chechnya twice only they lost complete armored colums time and time again , the second time around they bombed everything and anything back to the stone age ,that might work well in a localised internal conflict which causes the locals turn on fighters , but when the other large army has shown they have the capability to hit targets , vehicles , aircraft ,men 24/7 time and time again ,do you honestly think putin wants to fight America.let alone nato
Just recently back from Kyiv, fantastic city with a rich history, the WW2 museum and motherland monument leaves an Impression. I couldn't help get the feeling Ukraine is a country being pulled in 2 directions, a chess piece in geopolitical manoeuvres.
We must forget the idea of NATO or the UN, West doing anything purely to be nice and decent. They need a self serving motive to intervene in any situation.
The point of NATO is collective security for its members. Any other operations are secondary to this, and Ukraine is not a NATO member. Sucks to be Ukraine, unless the UN gets involved such as it did for South Korea, which I doubt.
So who should we call .....
Obviously.
And they have a motive. Many even.
This is senior hurling on the World stage, motives are varied and complex, but be sure that the worst thing anyone can do is not pick a side and back it to the hilt.
Do you think Ukraine is a democratic country with shared values to the west? How does that align with support for the violent overthrow of a democratically elected government in 2014?
You do raise a genuine question there though - WTF is the point of NATO in a post USSR world? A lot of the Russophobia is more explicable if NATO is seeking a purpose and trying to recast Russia as it's old adversary. The existence of NATO demands an adversary. Otherwise it is pointless. Russia's genuine concern about NATO as an alliance targeted against Russia is also more explicable in that context. You might pretend NATO is not targeted against Russia, but we all know NATO will never admit Russia as a member of NATO. There is definitely a closed door policy on NATO membership. It is just selective.
The reality is there is more chance of military conflict between NATO members (Greece and Turkey) than there is between Russia and NATO.
As for the former Yugoslav republics being in NATO in the 1990s...huge swathes of the former Yugoslavia aren't member states of NATO even now. The earliest accession was in 2004.
As for the jingoistic dreams of NATO marching into Russia...what will you do when Russia drops a nuclear weapon onto your concentration of 250,000 troops and wipes them out as an effective fighting force? Full out nuclear assault, inviting an escalation up to and including extinction of human life? Be serious. The reality is Ukrainian borders are not going to be the trench that the rest of the world dies in. Some more serious minded people need to take charge and recognise that Russia, as a nuclear power, cannot be treated like a bold child. They view NATO as an anti-Russian alliance. The anti-Russian rhetoric of NATO doesn't dissuade them. Diplomacy is the better option.
Just mentioning the motives aren't altruistic. They'll leave a people to their faith if theres no benefit in intervening.
To the hilt isn't always wise.
Russia dropping nuclear bombs ,I'd take the thousands of nuclear weapons pointed directly at them makes me think some people over play the idea of putin making a nuclear strike , there's plenty of nuclear weapons in Europe....
If putin or anyone else wants nato gone , Putin could give up his nuclear weapons make massive cuts to their military and withdraw all Russian forces from Crimea , Ukraine , Moldova, Georgia and elsewhere and show he's interested in peace .
Nato exists because the Russian didn't go away the eastern Europe got it's freedom and independence but Putin wants it back to the good old days of occupation and persecution of eastern Europe , under the guise of defense against the NATO invasion of Russia
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