Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Happens about once every 2 months.

Good to know that one of the key raw materials required is plentiful and even if its expensive, the proceeds make there way back to the state through Coilte

Land is plentiful and state apparatus controls what gets built where

Most of the raw materials are made in Ireland.

Its hard to understand how in our knowledge economy we have made it so difficult to manage housing Supply, demand

Pandering to speculative industries, perhaps!

I don't think it is hard to understand.... New properties were not built because it was cheaper to buy an existing property than build a new one after the fall out of '08. Planning permissions for new residential property dropped to under 5k a year after '08 and only started to recover in 2018. Allowing 3-5 years for delivery of properties it means that it is only in the past year or two that we have started to see these new properties being delivered. The only thing that could have been done differently is for the Irish Government to have stepped in and started building social housing as the private sector was not going to deliver during this period. But we can't forget that Ireland was bankrupt and not in a position to do so even if they wanted as the mantra back then was austerity and neither Europe or the IMF supported Fiscal spending to help recover the economy as they have done during the Covid Crisis.

With new residential buildings being delivered falling to such low levels a lot of labour force moved to different jobs in the economy which created a shortage of skilled labour and resulted in very low delivery of housing stock at time where the economy was growing and demand for housing was very strong further delaying the delivery of much needed housing stock.

Australian mining and real estate will be affected as well given the significant investment by the Chinese in the country. Australia has added more government debt than any other developed economy in this century. Chinese investment in the country has fallen significantly during covid but probably because their housing market has been a charade for longer than COVID and investors needed to keep cash in China.

This Chinese real estate crash will be catastrophic as it seems to be following the same trend as any other credit infused housing bubble. Potentially we'll get cheaper materials and labour from China when the whole housing market crash occurs over the coming years. We're only at the beginning and these things don't happen quickly. We in Ireland should all be hoarding cash and taking the boosters quickly before China releases another variant to try to deflect from its economic woes!

That isn't happening and will never happen - if we build enough then we won't have a crisis; great in theory but won't happen as it is not happening already. There is little appetite for the crisis to be fixed as too many vested interests enjoy the status quo and would balk if they were told that housing costs dropping 20/30/40% in 5 years would be the result of dramatic and rapid increase in supply.

Therefore, since supply will never be enough, demand should not be continuously ignited and QE with low interest rates is madness. This bubble is much larger than 08 and is entirely the work of the State entities (politicians and central banks). People have a lot of savings and yet are suppressed from spending with COVID restrictions yet the government is throwing money out into this environment that isn't really needed. Take the government out of the economy and the housing market with all its supports and grants to let the riskier and weaker areas simply correct which they are being prevented from doing. This is why there is no easy unwinding of the bubble; the State is too big that nothing can replace the money it is throwing into the fire.

Surely the US has added more debt than Australia.

China Will manage the housing situation the same as they managed covid using whatever it takes because the last thing that they want is too start a situation we’re the Chinese people Start an uprising.

I for one welcome jobs on the loose!

successive Australian governments have been doing everything in their power to promote, facilitate, and encourage a credit fueled property boom for decades now, sound familiar! this will more than likely go kaboom at some stage, and usual suspects will be out in force blaming public spending and public debt, again, sound familiar! australian banks are more than likely growing at a phenomenal rate, as theyre falling over each other, trying to get credit out the door, a sure sign, all isnt well with their banks, again, sound familiar! watch this space!

"We've the 10th highest vacant homes rate in the world" - Cheap rubbish by media. There is no such research made, nor it's really possible to make from existing data.

Well the figure of 183,000 vacant properties in Ireland is all that matters to us here really.

But is it 183,000? The geodirectory figure is 92k.

I think the point Marius was making is the data may not be that accurate and newspaper is just picking high number for a headline. Hopefully the census this year will provide more detail than the 2016 census which is where the 183k came from.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/

Ref : regulation

Kind of emphasises my point, all the regulation is useless, ineffective, expensive and unaccountable.

Pyrite, mica, fire hazards

What's the point of regulations. Why not use criminal/civil courts. Surely knowingly building a fire hazard is attempted man slaughter

Pyrite and mica is defrauding a customer

I actually live in a vacant house. My brother, sister and parents all live in vacant homes too. I only found that out last year. Pretty sure a lot of people are the same as us.

Its still self regulation, but more expensive for competent proven developers and builders plus a barrier to entry for new firms. Why not bring in the system thats in northern ireland and couple it up with severe penalties for deviating from what is a pretty standard process

Pyrite alone could cost 2 children's hospitals and counting for the taxpayer. Why is there no action on this issue that can be easily prevented with sane logical legislation