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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Winter 2021/2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

With only a day left in Autumn I thought it would be a good idea to open the Winter FI Extended Range Thread a day early since all FI charts are December based.

After a very mild and dry Autumn how is the first few weeks of Winter shaping up in the run up to Christmas?

We finally ended the very prolonged unbroken streak of very mild weather with a chilly weekend. This cold air has now shifted to our east and we are briefly back into mild Atlantic air once again till about Wednesday.

The next 2 weeks look set to alternate between brief mild south westerlies and cooler zonal north-westerlies. For now everything looks mostly Atlantic driven but there are hints that we could get a cold spell around the middle of December.

The GFS 06z tries to raise the heights over Scandinavia but nothing really comes of it.

We finish up on 15th December looking on the cool side and fairly unsettled.

The Control run in extended range is more successful at raising the heights over Scandinavia and we start to drag in really chilly air from the east from the middle of December in the run up towards Christmas. Very unlikely to verify but hopefully we will see more GFS runs run with this idea over the next 2 weeks.

This does get -10C uppers into the country in a very chilly airflow.

The cold air stays with us till about the 22nd of December and then a battleground situation between the Atlantic and the colder air to our east leaves Ireland fairly mild for Christmas. All of these charts are of course in the completely unreliable timeframe but I thought it would be nice to open the Winter FI Thread with something seasonal. I feel much of December will alternate between mild and cool with nothing too extreme in terms of cold. At the same time I think the excessively mild domination that we saw throughout Autumn has ended it's run and December could well end up being a fairly average month in terms of temperatures.

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Gonzo

The GFS 6z is not a cold outlier until the very end of it's run, it is in the coldest portion of the ensembles but there are several others that are going colder than the operational run including the control run, however the operational run does become a cold outlier after New Year's Day.

Getting back to Christmas Day itself that is starting to look like wide support for a fairly mild day but it could also be a day of transitioning from mild to cold. The day itself is also looking quite wet with maybe some wintryness on northern hills. Low ground may have to wait till the 27th of December for snow.

Hopefully the GFS 12z and ECM 12z will continue to upgrade this cold and not flip back to mild.

pauldry

Sligo now 6c for Xmas Day on 10 day google.

It was showing 4c Friday morning so trending up.

It's now gone 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 6.

Great seeing the roller coaster page so busy. Last Xmas there was one post a day.

PokeHerKing

Still no boom charts in the reliable on any models but looking at the NH profile as a whole, I feel we will be really unlucky to stay on the marginal/mild side of things.

Slashermcguirk

Noticeable cooling down over eastern and parts of Northern Europe this week. Moscow down as low as -25 degrees, Stockholm -10, Oslo-12, Copenhagen around -2. Definitely a big cooling down heading towards Christmas across parts of the continent

Gonzo

GFS 6z now going for a fairly signifcant warming around New Years stretching from Ireland to Siberia. This isn't an SSW but it's getting closer to one. The PV starting to come under quite a bit of pressure.

So much model watching to come over the next 2 weeks.

Much of Europe into the freezer by this point.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118340594#Comment_118340594

Ah thanks for posting this. The year my brother was born. My parents were in Dublin for Christmas, Mum was heavily pregnant and wanted baby to be born in Donegal. Cue a big rush to get back home in the snow!

Kermit.de.frog

Good from the UK Met Office. Nicely primed by Christmas Eve for an easterly.

Tom_Crean

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343002#Comment_118343002

This Christmas promises to bring lots of things from the east😂 Sorry, wrong forum 🤭

Kermit.de.frog

That's a good GFS now too. More St Stephen's Day on rather than Christmas Day on I think but in terms of trend really positive for those of us who want some real winter weather.

Good signs.

Gonzo

GEM 12z similar to the UKMO and brings the cold in on Christmas Day as the low pressure dives to the south.

Temperatures in Ulster and Leinster would struggle to get much above freezing if this verified. Still mild in the south-west but the mild temperatures would be pushed away fairly quickly.

In this setup we could see snow across parts of Northern Ireland but mostly rain elsewhere as the dew points are generally a few degrees above freezing. But i'd imagine the dew points would lower quickly and rain could turn to snow as the day progresses.

Gonzo

Just to illustrate the importance of this low and what happens if it fails to sink south. The Icon 12z parks the low off the west coast of Ireland so no cold air gets in. Infact all of Ireland and the UK are mild on Christmas day for this reason.

This is certainly not what we want so fingers crossed that the high sinks well to our south. We will probably spend the next 3 to 4 days figuring out where this low will end up.

Gonzo

ECM 12z rolling out and looking good for Christmas Day with the low sinking south of Ireland and winds off a cold continent with -7 uppers.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343707#Comment_118343707

Snow?

PokeHerKing

Merry Xmas from the ECM!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343711#Comment_118343711

Snow would be possible in Northern Ireland and further south later in the day. I haven't seen the ECM precipitation charts yet.

Snowbiee21

ECM says YES!

[Deleted User]

Is that cold enough?

Changwhitewater

RE: Christmas snow risk.

The latest ECM run is out and small changes from this morning's output, ultimately pointing to the arrival of colder weather on Xmas Day. It is an upgrade in terms of snowfall risk for Ireland although in this run, snowfall may be more likely in southern rather than northern areas as outlined below.

Cold encroaches into Ireland from northeast about 12 hours earlier on Christmas Eve

Christmas Day sees some pretty cold uppers tracking southwest across the island

By Christmas Day, the slider low is tracking a little further south (good news for those looking for snow come Xmas Day into Stephen's Day). The risk of snowfall as the pressure system meets cold air over Ireland extends further south and may indeed be confined to the southern half of the island. Ultimately the low pressure system tracks to our south and towards the Bay of Biscay in this run. Cannot imagine the low can track much further south than this so it will ne interesting to see if it holds its course as we are close to a best case scenario right now in terms of cold rather than mild airmass taking hold on Xmas Day and St Stephens Day.

By Stephen's Day there is a slack north-northeasterly over Ireland.

Trend is your friend etc. but a long way to go on this, bearing in mind that the GEM and GFS are indicating that the snow risk is largely limited to Ulster and perhaps high ground a little further south. A long way off yet but great to see all the same if you like snow (at Christmas!).

Gonzo

Certainly cold enough for snow. The ECM 12z get's the cold right down to Northern Spain. However it's more of a northerly so may be a lot dryer as pressure is slightly higher.

But really we nowhere near close enough to worry about snow as these charts will change several times over the next few days. ECM finishes with winds going back into the east off a very bitter continent and that's as far as we can see for now.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343737#Comment_118343737

Thanks gonzo

Meteorite58

Lots of eyes on the charts tonight.

Like others having watch them closely now for a number of days thinking that the chance is certainly increasing for cold sticking around for a number of days post Christmas. ECM is currently lacking of much precipitation but long way to go with that , have seen many variations over the last few days and snowfall largely gone today but the finer details will become clearer after the weekend. The charts wouldn't pick up streamers or troughs at this stage ( or a sneaky polar low ! ). Currently looking like widespread sharp frosts at least and very cold days. Atm Christmas day looks like struggling to get up past 4C or 5C away from the coasts.

Gonzo

back to tonights ECM and the precipitation charts are in. This is a much dryer run than this mornings ECM. It's better for cold but it's a northerly so this leaves us high and dry for the most part with snow trains down the Irish sea into Wales.

Christmas Day some sleety rain near the south coast. Dry elsewhere.

Stephens Day is again largely dry, some snow showers near Irish sea coasts and these would not penetrate much inland due to the more northerly based winds. These showers quickly back off into the sea and head towards Wales.

Most places would stay completely dry under this set up.

Hopefully this will become more of a north-easterly or easterly over the next few days.

Kermit.de.frog

I wouldn't put much if any stock in to precipitation charts at this point, nor temperature. It's still too far out for that.

The trend looks good but not there yet. I'd say another 24 hours to build more confidence for the Christmas period.

Tom_Crean

Posting my first technical chart, a little old, like myself 😉

https://youtu.be/_3ZC45Q82pg

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344447#Comment_118344447

Feel free to post that in the White Christmas thread too!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343722#Comment_118343722

Yay I'm in the darker blue in carrick on Shannon, hopefully I get to see my boyfriend that day he lives in Omagh 😬

Kermit.de.frog

Here's Gonzo trying to reach his front door next week...🥶

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Yghdmi1yFo

Changwhitewater

The 18z GFS is similar to the most recent ECM output. The low tracks further south. Snow risk for Xmas Day is highest in British Midlands with some chance of backedge snowfall later in inland Munster and Leinster as the slider low drifts towards Bay of Biscay. Ultimately, talk of precip type at this stage is pointless. Cold sinks slowly south across the island during Christmas Day as the low moves on. From here the GFS differs from ECM in that by St Stephen's Day it is dragging in ENE then NE winds which is much more conducive to generating snow showers in eastern/northern counties.

Donegal Ken

Looking at the precipitation charts at this stage is pointless. The good thing is we have that cold on the charts again and the are not pushing it out past Christmas day. Come Wednesday will be a crucial day for precipitation charts as someone mentioned about models don't handle streamers or even polar lows at this range and sometimes can only pop up around 24 hours to 48 before.

Meteorite58

Yeah it's amazing how it is pointless looking at precipitation charts when they are not showing snow 🤣🤣

GFS 18Z looking very cold Christmas , similar to ECM at this stage. and very cold in the days after Christmas .