NATO are considering whether to place more troops in Romania and Bulgaria https://www.dw.com/en/nato-mulls-deploying-troops-to-bulgaria-romania-der-spiegel/a-60182693
NATO doesn't dismiss it, it would be foolish to disregard the possible reactions of other actors (1950 demonstrated that nicely) but it views the security of NATO states as more important.
If you're going to guarantee the security of a NATO member on the border with Russia, it makes a lot of sense that the exercises happen on the terrain it is to be fought over with the logistical infrastructure to be used. Similarly, it is to a potential aggressor's interest that such exercises do not occur, as it reduces defensive capability and makes for a weaker target.
When Russia conducts its exercises like Zapad, NATO keeps a close eye, but doesn't protest them or demand they stop happening. It's not like these exercises are a new concept.
@[Deleted User] do think it's likely that Putin will seek to take Ukraine... but I also think he could be bought off with some internationally recognised guarantees that said that NATO or the US wouldn't ever place any military assets in countries such as the Ukraine, ensuring that it remained independent... but I suspect that wouldn't interest you..
Why would it interest me or anyone else ,you yourself saying Putin wants to take Ukraine says it all , Putin wants to return to the Soviet Union of old , so what if eastern European countries and Baltics weren't originally part of Europe ,not that they had a choice post ww2 forcibly occupied by the red army , hundreds of thousands disappeared across the bloc ,so what do we give to putin no NATO troops or equipment in former Soviet states , that means right up to the middle of Berlin , meanwhile Russia can invade and occupy everything east of Berlin because who's going to stop him ,not the EU or a highly weakened and hamstrung NATO ,
Do you honestly think putin sticks to legally binding agreements ,like the russsian Ukrainian treaty where Ukraine handed over it's nuclear weapons in return for a friendship and nonaggression treaty ,
Nukes handed over several years later invasion , occupation and annexation of parts of Ukraine ,
But let's get NATO out of the way to keep putin happy
My comment was about guaranteeing Ukrainian independence, which is obvious enough. Just as you're exaggerating about Putin wanting NATO forces out of "Europe". It seems the borders of Europe continue to expand East far beyond what was traditionally considered European territories. The Ukraine was never part of Europe.
And no.. it's nothing to do with not standing up to Russia because they have nukes (look back and you'll see I've never used that as a reason). It's about seeking to understand the situation from multiple angles, stop this "holier than thou" attitude, and the double standards that only contributes to further problems down the line.
The Cuban missile crisis occurred because of the demands by America that Soviet nukes would not be established near US territory. Since WW2, the US has stationed military forces, and nukes all around Russian borders. The Soviets were unreasonable to attempt the same to the US, but the US is perfectly right to do that to Russia... and let's be completely honest here, within ten years or so, the Ukraine would become an ally of NATO or the US directly, providing bases for US/NATO forces. Ever creeping closer to Russian cities... yeah.. that's completely reasonable. I'd ask you to imagine Mexico inviting Russia to set up bases in their territory for economic benefits, but that couldn't happen because the Monroe Doctrine is still very much in effect, although modernised in its' aims.
I do think it's likely that Putin will seek to take Ukraine... but I also think he could be bought off with some internationally recognised guarantees that said that NATO or the US wouldn't ever place any military assets in countries such as the Ukraine, ensuring that it remained independent... but I suspect that wouldn't interest you.
How can it be about Ukrainian independence when they are already happily independent , Russia wants all NATO forces to be removed from Europe full stop , hence the demand they remove troops and weapons from former Soviet Union states ,who post ww2 had zero say about becoming Soviet states ,why would Putin want that exactly ,no nato troops or weapons so he can invade and return the states back to the Soviet Union.
It's like the usual response on boards let's not stand up to Russia because they have nuclear weapons
So, this is less about Ukrainian independence, and more for your desire to see Russia humbled.
Okay. I understand now.
I don't know how they will sort it out, but they will have to. They claim to be the great leaders of the world.
The same can apply to Russia it can't be a one way street , Putin has his grip on Ukraine and he's not letting go , doesn't matter what consessions he's given he will want more ,let Putin remove russian troops from Ukraine , Moldova , Georgia and elsewhere and then we can discuss where NATO or the EU can place troops or carry out exercises ,
He's still sending bombers around various states and then complaining whenever America or NATO does it in return ,
I'd love to see several squadrons of NATO aircraft fly into and land in Ukraine and say they are taking over security of Ukrainian skies and borders ,give the russians something to actually think about
Russia doesn't want NATO extending on to their borders, which is what would happen as Ukraine received more support from Western nations, especially that of the US. They want an end to NATO activities, not the end of an independent army in Ukraine.
I suspect you could get the guarantee of Ukrainian independence easily enough if Russia received a guarantee themselves, that Ukraine (or similar states) would never become a member of NATO, and/or never be used to house US military assets of any kind.
The threat isn't from these states. The threat to Russia is further establishment of US forces closer to their main population centers. A reasonable enough fear, all things considered.
It's all give us what we want in Moscow or else
Not quite since they've engaged in plenty of international diplomacy and agreements in the past... and while I know you don't want to hear it, they're also following the stance that the US has performed in the past. The US isn't shy about putting it's own military forward to reinforce their demands.
We already have the russian airforce patrolling the skies over Belarus , they have russian advisors on the ground ,and lukashenko himself has stated he's willing to allow Russian nuclear weapons to deployed in Belarus , while reminding everyone that he's kept Soviet era military infrastructure in place and active ,if putin wanted to he can take lukashenko out of the picture all together ,the biggest issue is the people don't want that lukashenko or putin running the show
This is true ,but it seems to be completely one sided in Russia's favour ,it's the same as wanting a say in What and how the EU does things ,
How about russia removes it's troops and equipment from Ukraine and allows Ukraine to make it's own decisions on it's destiny ,
@"So what is russia giving up in return absolutely nothing"
That BBC article doesn't really tells the whole Russian proposal. Russians propose security pact where both sides would remove their missiles from close proximity of the other side. While there are no Russian installations near American borders, I believe the wording of the document applies to submarines and strategic bombers, and there is also Russian far East near Alaska.
Judging by the commentary from the West so far, their proposal will be refused, so I guess we can expect a massive deployment of intermediate - range missiles in Europe on both sides of this conflict. That's the long-term best case scenario.
It would all have to be part of a bigger agreement that respects all security concerns...
That's the problem though. This should be an regional/internal problem, not a big geopolitical faultline, but geography is destiny.
So what get rid of NATO ,and then tell countries primarily in Eastern Europe and the Baltics to disaband their militaries because , Russia with its massive nuclear arsenal and other weapons ,feels threatened by them even though they are no threat to Russia in any which way
Seems a fair request to me. Military activity by NATO on your border could be perceived as threatening, no?
The free will of a country like Ukraine does not matter to Russia; the result is the same: a threat to the security of Russia.
And NATO dismisses that!
Russia said on Friday it wanted a legally binding guarantee that NATO would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine
So no NATO excercises near Russia ,no NATO ships in the blacksea ,recind invites to Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO ,no NATO flights near Russian territory,a seat at EU table and more vetoes ,no NATO or foreign troops on former russian controlled states .
So what is russia giving up in return absolutely nothing
Putin needs to be given a very public slap in the face
From the FT
Under the draft proposals, Nato would have to seek consent from Moscow to deploy troops in former Communist countries in Europe that joined Nato in May 1997.
There is precisely 0% chance of that happening. Literally zero.
If you think Lukashenko would do such a thing you're away with the fairies. He'd go to war first.
There's been plenty of tension between himself and Putin over the years. They met earlier this year and the Black Sea almost froze over such was the frostiness.
If Belarus was to ever be reabsorbed back into Russia, it'll be when Lukashenko is pushing up the daisies.
Well, the Kremlin has produced it's list of demands, so as predicted it was about ramping up tensions to get concessions. If its ignored they are threatening a 1963 Cuban missile style crisis. The demands are flat-out ridiculous. They know they'll be rejected so it's a bit like a kid asking for 50 quid to get 10 quid. Also sounds like it's mainly to play themselves as a victim for the homegrown audience.
Nope. There is one and the only thing Lukashenko values more than his or anyone's life. It's power. in the 1990s, he wanted to be the ruler of Russia, by trying to share power in the Russia-Belarus union with Eltsin first and then he would had take over the ailing drunk Russian president. This cunning plan did not work out with a certain Vladimir pushing Lukashenko aside and out of the Russian politics. Thus Lukashenko has to contend with being the head honcho in a smaller country, but this power is so precious to him, he would never, never give up even a shred of it. "Returning to Russia" would mean a huge loss of power to him, and thus is an absolute nonsense.
Russia has proposed a treaty / listed its demands:
Unfortunately I don't have your beliefs ,and everything that has happened from Georgia to Ukraine was all predicted correctly ,
But yes it's all conspiracy
I remember several well known posters telling us all about mass graves and Genocide being committed by the football houilgans holding off the Russian army in Ukraine
I'm glad i don't view the world through similar paranoid eyes.
I reckon give it time and Lukachenko will announce Belarus is returning to Russia
It stated with Georgia , Ukraine ,they tested the waters in Moldova ,the rest such as Poland,lativa, Lithuania, Romania will also be targeted ,it's happening in Serbia too , Putin supporting and pushing for breakaways so he can influence countries away from the EU,this isn't about a landgrab Putin wants the old Soviet Union back , Europe has moved on over the last 30 years,grew economically and in governance ,all while cutting back on military budgets and now Putin is gearing up for war ,a and what do we have to fight with sanctions targeting a few henchmen ,
The only tool in the box is the swift banking system ,and asset sizures across Europe , suspend russian companies from operating in Europe ,
Or we have a massive military build up and rapid increases in defence budgets and face Putin militarily ,
I'd rather we use the swift system than soldiers but if Europe doesn't act now with unity and we face years of either another cold war or an actual war
Lukachenko and Belarus will do as they are told, rigged elections is supported by Putin's muscle, Putin needs his pipelines to remain open, otherwise he cannot support pensions etc., back home, his people are virtually running the joint for some time now.
If you live in Berlin or Munich and it’s minus 10 do you think anyone cares what heats their homes or where it comes from?
Who’s going to sit in the cold and have cold showers, eat cold food because they don’t like Putin?
The world doesn’t operate like that, did anyone ever ask where fuel comes from when they top up their tank? NO!
No one cares, all people want is a reliable and relatively cheap source of energy.
Let the US supply Europe with LNG, what are they waiting for?
But Ukraine and Georgia are not 'most of Europe', not even close. The 2 are former Soviet Republics that basically didn't navigate their new independence very well and ended up making a right enemy of their bigger, dangerous, and bullying neighbour.
Still though, weaponizing SWIFT can only lead to a more fractured international banking environment.
This isn't about capitalism or competition this is trying to deter russia and it's satellite states like Belarus from trying to invade and occupy more of Ukraine , previous sanctions have failed ,the UN has utterly failed Ukraine even to the point of removing the term shotdown and shooting down of flight MH 17 to appease Putin ,
The only other option is war , Russia Will face sanctions but will also be the biggest supplier of fuels and natural gas to Europe , which gives them a huge say in Europe which defeats having sanctions ,if the EU and NATO don't stand up to Putin now it's safe to safe Ukraine and many of the Baltics states Will in fall to Russia in short time , were essentially saying sure let just sit back and allow Putin to occupy and oppress most of Europe
Well there have been calls for Belarus to be disallowed by SWIFT.
MoscowTimes has a piece on it: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/14/belarus-banks-readying-for-swift-shutdown-reports-a75808
Personally I am not a fan of western countries weaponizing SWIFT and am supportive of countries to implement alternatives. Capitalism is supposed to welcome competition, right?
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