Toyota panics .. asks BYD to help make EVs for them

celtic_oz · 05-12-2021 5:11pm #1

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/05/toyota-turns-to-chinese-technology-to-get-evs-to-market/?_guc_consent_skip=1638720366

Toyota executives started to worry back in 2015 when BYD launched its Tang plug-in hybrid, with significant improvements in styling, quality and performance. Most worrying was that fact it was still about 30% cheaper than comparable Toyota models. There was a critical turn of events in 2017 when Toyota's top engineering leaders, including then-executive vice president Shigeki Terashi, drove several BYD cars such as the Tang at its proving ground in Toyota City near its headquarters in Japan. Terashi subsequently visited BYD's headquarters in Shenzhen and drove a prototype of its Han electric car. "Their long-term quality is still a question mark, but the design and quality of these cars showed levels of maturity, yet they were much cheaper than comparable Toyota models," said one of the four sources, who participated in the test drives.

"We were all kinda floored by that."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF9s5CxtCJg

80sDiesel · 05-12-2021 6:57pm

I checked out that Viking channel and he is awful.

unkel · 06-12-2021 1:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118273100#Comment_118273100

Maybe so. But he's on the ball and he doesn't pull any punches. Getting BYD to build electric cars for them sticking a Toyota badge on them might be the only thing that keeps Toyota from going under in the next decade or two. Mind, it's just delaying the inevitable. Toyota fanbois will riposte that they will be first with commercial solid state batteries of course. I'll believe that when I see it 😂

Disclosure: I went long on BYD last week.

06-12-2021 1:23pm

While I could be convinced to drive a ByD car like the the Dolphin, Tang or Seagull I will not invest in Chinese companies. Once the car is in my possession I can derive benefit from it without fear of losing it.

ELM327 · 06-12-2021 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118277015#Comment_118277015

I agree. They do not have a democratic society, too easy for the government to close down anything they dont like or for money to go "missing"

Lantus · 07-12-2021 9:29am

Toyotas big selling point is reliability of it's ice engines. It won't have that advantage in an ev.

Its a very real look at how far behind legacy car makers are compared to Tesla and china. Toyota have accepted defeat already. They have seen third gen byd cars already transitioning into fourth gen highly developed cars in highly efficient factories running at a profit and realized way too late they are way behind the curve.

Bizzarley it looks like vw are about to get rid of their pro ev CEO and replace him with someone more favourable to keeping ice engines and keeping related jobs. Come on vw, don't be silly! You are barely in front of Toyota and you want to ease off!? Nuts.

unkel · 07-12-2021 9:42am

"Toyotas big selling point is reliability of it's ice engines"

"Toyota have accepted defeat already"

Interestingly, Toyota had accepted defeat in terms of diesel engines a good 20 years ago, stopped developing them and just started buying them in from third parties (like BMW)

Agree 100% with all your points. I really hope that Diess will stay at VAG, he is pretty much their only hope and he has done immense good to the company already in terms of their chance to survive and thrive in this brave new world of zero emission vehicles...

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 10:15am

Car manufacturers are not behind Tesla. I thought most people had got over that but seemingly it is still around.

Toyota is still the top car manufacturer in the World and thats after dumping diesel years ago when every other car manufacturer was desperately trying to fill their fleet with diesel models.

VW are second.

Tesla have been talking about electric cars for how long but if I look on an Irish road now what do I see? electric VW and lots of them. Yes the odd Tesla is knocking around but at this stage it has to be at least 3-1 in favour of VW who only really bothered in the last two years.

People are still buying combustions engines all over the World, people are still buying hybrids by the bucket load all over the World. No idea why anyone thinks at this stage that big car manufacturers are suddenly going to dead in the next year few years, that was floating around when the "famous" 35k Model 3 was supposed to arrive, still waiting on that one.

Electric cars are still a small market, a growing market but still small in terms of the World. Until you have a full range from a cheap to a premium electric car it won't change. The cheapest electric car at the moment is what? 30-40k? while you can pikc up a brand new combustion engine car for what/ less than 10k.

Toyota have accepted defeat already 😂

zilog_jones · 07-12-2021 10:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282216#Comment_118282216

They've been making hybrids for over 20 years and the whole hybrid powertrain and batteries have been reliable, not just the ICE. They shouldn't have any trouble making much simpler BEV powertrains reliable, they just need to get their arse in gear and get the costs down.

Lantus · 07-12-2021 10:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282498#Comment_118282498

Their hybrids are ice cars with an additional component made with traditional car building factories and workforces and associated suppliers.

A modern ev from the ground up is a different animal and Tesla and the Chinese use fit for purpose factory's with smaller workforces and can make cars faster at a greater profit and implement changes quicker. They are 3 generations ahead in development with no signs of slowing. Vw boss Zeiss has been trying to get his firm to switch and the legacy maker is kicking back. They don't like change. None of them do. They have been class leaders for decades and don't want it to end. I don't blame them but the market will decide for them sooner rather than later.

If it's so easy for Toyota to make an ev then why cosy up to byd? Because new factory's and processes to develop an ev take years and hundreds of millions before you see a profit. The late starters will be doing this as their ice car sales fall steadily in the next 10 years towards zero. It will be too late then.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 10:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282498#Comment_118282498

Why do they need to "get their arse in gear"? the electric car market is still tiny and they are selling hybrid by the bucket load. They have a PHEV out now and just announced an electric car to come out soon. VW had to come out quicker because their entire fleet was based on diesel which was problematic to say the least, Toyota can point to them getting rid of diesel long before others.

BYD are down 29% in first half of this year and if Toyota really wanted they could just buy them out.

unkel · 07-12-2021 11:13am

The electric car market is only tiny in backwards countries. In Norway, over 80% of all new passenger vehicles sold are now fully battery electric. Will be the same in many other countries within the next 5-10 years. ICE is dead, it's just a matter of time. How quickly the incumbent ICE manufacturers can switch over to EVs will determine if they survive or not

Fingleberries · 07-12-2021 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282655#Comment_118282655

The main move behind the BYD cosy-up is that they needed an affordable BEV. The bzx4 is likely going to be pricey (High-end Rav4 territory), as the PHEV RAV4 starts at around €50k. Even with grants, this is beyond the normal reach of someone who might be interested in BEV as a family runaround or a simple city car, etc.

In the UK recently the Model 3 was the best selling car, not just electric car, for a few months. Toyota (and other manufacturers) need to have an affordable BEV to get market share and mind share (even in the relatively small BEV market) back from incumbents like Tesla, BYD, etc. This is a stop-gap measure to recover from the focus on Hydrogen or until they get their own processes in train and can then steamroller the market with their scale and production capacity.

VW are doing a great job at trying to be relevant, if the number of id.3 and id.4 cars around the place are anything to go by. They would be crazy to ditch Diess, just because he's told some home truths and is a Musk fanboy. But, vested interests in the older markets and manufacturing, are at play against him.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282831#Comment_118282831

I think people are really overplaying the significance of Tesla. Outside a specific market nobody really cares about Tesla. Plus that is the market that all the other manufacturers are moving into first. Do you honestly think a Toyota RAV owner is going to swap to a Tesla or to a new PHEV/Electric RAV?

Tesla are selling cars while everyone else is buying SUV/Crossovers. If you look at the Tesla Crossover, with the funky doors, how much success has that had in replace X5's etc? I actually see more Audi eTrons

The small car market is awash with cheap combustion engine cars and any electric car released will have limited range plus is going into a market which people don't want to mess around with plugs etc. So the hybrid small toyota is in an ideal position against other straight electric, plus they are really economical.

Padre_Pio · 07-12-2021 12:24pm

Toyota, VAG, Mercedes, companies that have invested billions over the past 60-70 years in ICE technology. Honestly, it will come down to how ruthless they are in pivoting entire factories, supply chains, R&D departments, etc to electric.

You might have hundreds of engineers each with decades of experience who are suddenly obsolete because ICEs have gone from hero to zero in the space of five years.

unkel · 07-12-2021 12:39pm

Agree with your point Padre_Pio, but the development of diesel cheating software about 10 years ago proves EVERYBODY in the industry knew full well that diesel (ICE) was a dead duck at that stage. The only reason ICE still sells is that most manufacturers are fighting tooth and nail to sell as many ICE as they possibly can, before they are banned from doing so.

07-12-2021 12:46pm

ICE sells because they have got established production facilities and R&D costs on engines sunk. each additional ICE unit produced has a small marginal cost.

They're not developing any more new ICE engines and just investing minimally to refine the existing engines they have until 2030 to 2035 when they transition over to EV. Those dates weren't decided without tacit agreement of the big European Manufacturers. The current small capacity turbo'd petrol engines of the European manufacturers will be the foundation of their product offerings until they transition over to EV.

magicbastarder · 07-12-2021 12:49pm

why are toyota so far behind on battery technology, when they were the first major manufacturer to have success with hybrid technology? you'd have thought that would give them an advantage in motor and battery technology, but did they just stagnate there and not countenance the next leap?

unkel · 07-12-2021 1:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283412#Comment_118283412

Because they gambled big style on hydrogen cars. Still do even though most other manufacturers have come to see this as a ludicrous solution for small vehicles over the last 10 years or so.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283230#Comment_118283230

They just need to change one factory, then maybe two. VW already did it and can show the blueprint. It's not like they haven't done this many times before . In reality a swap to electric is easier as less moving part etc and the process should reduce labour. Supply chain/R&D why do they need to pivot? it will be the same suppliers to the main manufacturers and they will be using the same supply chain. R&D will be the same just with an electric version the same as the combustion versions

Not sure why you think those engineers are obsolete? 10-20 years combustion engine will continue to be sold. They are just the engine engineers and the rest will continue to work as is on electric cars. Combustion cars will continue to have developments made on them along with electric cars, maybe in 10 years they might stop and at that stage either the engineer will have retired or will have transferred to electric.

People are over estimating what electric cars mean because Tesla made such a big deal out of it. Tesla problem is they had nothing set up to start with including an experienced manufacturing division. Something the main manufacturers already have.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 2:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283389#Comment_118283389

VW just released a whole load of new combustion engines last year. All engines can be classed as a refinement of the previous versions. Other manufacturers will do the same and continue to develop newer engines.

Padre_Pio · 07-12-2021 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283886#Comment_118283886

Changing a factory cost billions of dollars and can take years.

Reducing labour and rejigging lines also cost billions of dollars.

Suppliers definitely won't all be the same.

Engineers can't just change disciplines overnight or even over months or years. There's a global shortage of electrical and software engineers.

mfceiling · 07-12-2021 2:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282990#Comment_118282990

But Tesla are the pioneers of electric cars. Very good efficiency from the batteries, good technology, supercharger network and "the cool factor".

Tesla also have a subscription policy in place. You want the full maps and Spotify and you pay for it....every month. That's a lot of money coming in. Add in the cost of supercharging and that's another guaranteed revenue stream. So when you buy a tesla the company still gets money from you.

07-12-2021 2:06pm

No. Their line up is based around the EA211 and developments on that along with the MQB platform and to a certain extent MLB.

The profits are coming from EA211 on MQB until the end of the decade.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 2:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283935#Comment_118283935

"the cool factor" for a small minority.

I dont think Tesla are the pioneers, electric cars have been around for years and multiple manufacturers have made them just never pushed them out to market

To update, not the most efficient based on the below. The network is not complete and the technology is seemingly good? but the build quality and TCO outside warranty is terrible.

https://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/economical-cars/1548/most-economical-electric-cars

Fingleberries · 07-12-2021 3:16pm

In the same way that Apple didn't invent the digital music player or touchscreen device, Tesla didn't invent the electric car.

They both, however, brought product to bear that caught with the public because of ease of use, a certain flair and joined up thinking (e.g. Things like: If lack of charging options holds back EV sales, let's use a percentage of the sales in a region to finance chargers in that region - making it easier for owners and easier for sales)

Often, among the public, the word Tesla has become synonymous with referring to electric cars - like iPod was for MP3 players.

Because Tesla could start form the ground up as an electric only car manufacturer they didn't have the baggage of the common makers (Toyota, Nissan, VW, etc) but it cost them a load of cash to get to where they are today.

Legacy manufacturers have the finances to do something similar, but don't want to kill their cash cow (ICE) to get there its a slow transition and first mover in the mass market has been ceded to others.

Nissan has had the Leaf for 10+ years, Toyota have almost 20 years of hybrid tech. What did either do with it?

Tesla has only a tiny fraction of the global car market, but it has been enough to wake some sleeping giants. It will likely never kill them, and I'm not sure it wants to, but at least it seems prompted a response.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 3:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118283917#Comment_118283917

As I said VW already have the blue print, they done it initially on a small factory with the eGolf to reduce costs when they done a bigger factory.

You seem to be jumping around topics, first you mention combustion engine engineers which as i said will need to re-skill but they are still 10 year probably off that.

Now you seem to be talking about electrical and software engineers which are different, an electrical and software engineer will work on cars even if the fuel is petrol/diesel/hydrogen/electric. Plus you will find the big manufacturers are already working with specialist companies in the area of software development like autonomous driving. One of the biggest which is based out of Ireland.

Suppliers in the majority will be the same, the likes of Bosch have already started to buy out companies who provide electric car components so if they dont have in house they are big enough to buy them. Even the magical tesla buy from ....... Bosch

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 3:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118284565#Comment_118284565

Tesla haven't sold anywhere near the amount of devices that Apple did and have not shacked up the market like Apple did. Companies crumbled overnight with the iPod/iPhone and went bust. Sorry but that never has or will happen with Tesla.

Just look at Tesla charging in Ireland, it is minimal and scare, even in the US you see queues around the block to charge points. I own an electric car but I know the benefits of it and the disadvantages. The major been public charging which in every country in the World is a huge stumbling block which once you go past the hype Tesla have not resolved.

JohnC. · 07-12-2021 3:57pm

It's no good saying BEVs are a small percentage (which is debatable in itself now) so there's no rush. It's no use waiting until BEVs are a bigger deal to start getting serious. Wait that long, and they'll find others have eaten their lunch.

.42. · 07-12-2021 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118282399#Comment_118282399

Not sure where you are living but their are more Tesla Model 3s in my estate then any other brand of electric vehicles.

Blue4u · 07-12-2021 4:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118285018#Comment_118285018

The market says different

https://www.electricireland.ie/news/article/electric-vehicle-sales-double-in-ireland-in-first-half-of-year

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118284938#Comment_118284938

See link above, 4%. Toyota which this thread is about are going to release an electric car which will coincide with a lot of people on PCP on RAV4, it was released in 2018 if I remember but you couldnt get one till 2019 when they shipped in major quantities. 3 year PCP will mean they are up next year

Toyota panics .. asks BYD to help make EVs for them

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