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What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,386 ✭✭✭alps


    2 sides to the ledger....

    Don't omit product price from the calculations. In a drought you have no water..we have fertiliser..it just treble the price..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,676 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    18-6-12 @700/ ton will be twice the price of what it cost in 2021. Everything will be about adapting to the conditions. Remember supply may be as much an issue as price. If you can only source 2/3's of your needs for next spring how do you manage that

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,676 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 ✭✭✭Easten


    Are the price rises for just nitrogen or is it for all blends even low or zero nitrogen ones?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Mostly nitrogen but P has its own jumps as well.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,557 ✭✭✭ginger22


    lads should also take into account milk prices will be at least 25% higher next year compared to this years average, so shouldnt be all about cutbacks. Dont know about cattle prices for beef men, crystal ball stuff. It is a balancing act maintaining or increasing production versus controlling costs. Expect to milk 30 more cows here next year, have extra 10 acres coming in on leased farm cows can graze and have purchased another 10 acres adjoining outfarm will be put into maize.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,570 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    Unlikely to be 25% higher. Near all processing is done off the back of gas in this country and cost of shipping on tip of it. Should of course rise but would be very unlikely to be 25% higher than this year

    The fact peak will be a few months into the year may help if energy prices do reduce



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,557 ✭✭✭ginger22


    Kerry last forward fixed price for next year 40 cents this time last year it was 32 cents 25% increase



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,570 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    Not average for the year tho, if it happens great but wouldn't be banking on it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,676 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Kerry price last year was a complete underestimation of the market. At present you have an upward trajectory and Kerry are factoring that in. Is it 1,3 or 5 year fixed.

    Lads have to factor in now that they must not produce milk that has little or no margin. Every pointer is that fairy farmers have to reduce organic N/ HA. Cows are going from 75kg to 85 kgs this year I think. The EU is watching to legislate for calves to be on dairy farm for 35 days after birth. That is probably an extra 15 days/ calf on average maybe more. Every 60 odd calves on a farm that are normally sold off a farm will be equivalent to an extra cow nitrates wise if this comes in. As well if they stop calf exports in 2-5 years where will they go. Co-op will not tolerate mass calf slaughter at 35 days of age

    Lads should be looking at rationalising there system. Everything is point at reducing output. You could carrying extra costs next year to maintain numbers that you may be forced to reduce in 2-3 years

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,288 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    All very well and Like the v general advice Tegasc throw out ……but no 2 farms are same and thus decisions need to be made to suit that farm



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Not said out loud but the EU position is to limit out put and intensity.


    Nitrates, calves, waste water, slurry dates and storage etc etc.


    All going one-way and there is something for every sector.


    A deep and growing hostility to agriculture in Brussels.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,557 ✭✭✭ginger22


    That hostility wont last long in Brussels when the price of food goes ballistic or the shelves are empty.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭cjpm


    They should be careful what they wish for….

    If there are empty shelves as a result of the fertiliser situation they’d be singing a very different tune.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,681 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    Regardless of agriculture in Europe it's unlikely there'll be no food on shelves, it's the poorer classes in developing nations which will see food shortages.

    This won't be because they're not producing it but because it's being exported to wealthier nations.

    At the end of the day money makes the world go round. The cost of food may rise but Europe will be able to pay for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,417 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    And if they are able to pay for it then, why can't the bloody well pay for it now instead of making poorer nations poorer?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,681 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    As much as people say they want to promote equality and fairness they only pay what they have to.

    Nobody goes into the shop and tell the shopkeeper they aren't charging enough. They'll pay the bare minimum and probably say it's too much. The same applies on a global scale.

    The poorer nations have a lot of rich people too, it's them who will benefit from any price increases and not those doing the work.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The absolute vast, vast majority of agriculture produce is not exported from any poor country, what is is rounding error volume.


    Who here knows that Pakistan is one of the largest milk producers in the world that semi arid Mali, which most of us could barely find on a map, is one of the leading cattle countries in the world.


    Grain from greater Europe and North America is feeding the world. Good ground and suitable climate is why we can, most of the world doesn't have land like that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,225 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Greens are anti livestock nothing else. Most greens are vegan by choice and want everyone else to follow suit.

    You can just see the traction a meeting of green meps in Europe has had in the calf thread.

    Everything will be done to limit and make it harder to keep livestock farming. You only have to see what Mr. Cuff was at. But of course the party had nothing to do with that.

    You've farmers out ploughing ground since the 1st of December and before really. All the nitrates from that ground is now being washed into our waterways. But it's plant farming so a blind eye is turned. They'll test the waterways and blame it on the grassland and turn the screw even more limiting slurry spread. Just to make it harder to keep livestock. Which results in more ploughed ground and more nitrates in waterways. But it'll be the fault of whatever grassland is left.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,681 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    If agriculture in Europe reduces it's the rest of the world will suffer and even then only the poorer classes.

    I'd say we don't currently import much milk from Pakistan or beef from Mali but South America would sell us plenty of beef, I'd say we could source milk from the likes of New Zealand or even Pakistan. In any case if there's a lack of food in the world Europe will be among the last to see it barring a third world war or similar.

    Poorer countries won't feed the world but other than having a COP style conference where vague pledges are made how much do EU leaders really care. They haven't ended world hunger yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,906 ✭✭✭straight


    E.U leaders couldn't care less about food security in poorer countries. They are clearly demonstrating that through their policies. They will care though when rising food and energy prices upset their electorates and it starts to affect their own gravy trains.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,217 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    How much food is the EU currently exporting to poorer countries?? Not a alot would be my guess outside of emergency aid. As has always been the case most food shortages in poorer countries is down to war, corruption etc. rather than like of production capacity. Twas the same here during the famine when the the British were exporting vast amounts of food from the islands at the same time.


    PS: Lack of storage, transport and refrigeration is a huge issue for third world farmers eg. Saw a piece on Al Jaazera last year which said that 2/3 of the peach crop in Pakistan rots before its gets to market



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    They don't care about food security in European countries either, that wasn't Always the way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,906 ✭✭✭straight


    We don't need to export food to poorer countries to effect the food prices in those countries. Just look up the food crisis 2007.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,217 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I know - that was the point I was making. Currently the most stressed in terms of food supply are the likes of Northern Ethiopia, Yemen, South Sudan, Afghanistan and the Western Sahel countries. If you have even a passing interest in foreign news it becomes obvious why.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,906 ✭✭✭straight


    I don't think it's as simple as you are suggesting. Food cost is much larger in real terms in poorer countries.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,217 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    i also mentioned there food chains lack storage etc. which lead to colossal waste etc. that adds to cost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 896 ✭✭✭degetme


    What is a better buy urea at 900 a ton or can at 685 a ton



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,906 ✭✭✭straight


    I find urea a pain in dry weather. Would always be afraid it's going away in the air without rain.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,959 ✭✭✭GrasstoMilk


    Urea is cheaper per unit/ kg Of N


    but it takes longer to work as it has to convert from ureaic N hence why it’s safer to spread in spring as it sits there till temps are there get it working where as CAN starts releasing N whether the weather is there or not for growth



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