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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,539 ✭✭✭wexfordman2




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,539 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    Wondering if there was anything to this, those more in the know might be able to tease this out or dismiss it.


    We know that Cross border trade has boomed, and that one aspect of this boom is an increase of NI "exports" to Ireland, and also a decrease of exports from Britain to Ireland!!


    Are thse things related, as in are qe seeing goods going from Britain to NI and then shipped down south, avoiding customs etc, the very thing the EU has been concerned about ?


    I know anecdotally of some b2b trade where companies are sourcing things from the UK via NI, so there has to be something to this ?


    Are we seeing the failure of the UK government implementing checks resulting in goods crossing the border that should not be ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I'm not sure either side has the resources in place to know, either way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I see where you're coming from. But "Brexitism needs to be completely defeated" is not the same thing as "Brexitism needs to be completely defeated immediately". This is simply not possible, partly because it is deeply entrenched in UK political culture, but also because, right now, I don't think the UK would be welcome back into the EU.

    It took a long time for the UK to get to this point; it will take a long time to get back from it. I think selling the idea that "the UK doesn't have to be permanently antagonistic to Europe and it would probably be a good idea if it weren't" is a good start. Once any kind of clsoeness with Europe becomes politically acceptable, and is practised, and has good results, then you open the way to considering whether a higher degree of closeness might be desirable, and some reflection on why the UK left the EU in the first place. The re-entry of the UK to the EU, if it ever happens, will be the end of a very long process.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users Posts: 176 ✭✭Larry Bee


    The Irish Maritime Development Office have published figures showing that over the last 6 months there has been a 50% increase of goods going from Ireland to Europe are not going through UK, but instead going directly to the continent, mainly through Rosslare. There are now 44 ferry routes to France, compared with 12 before Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/30/goods-shipped-directly-from-ireland-to-eu-up-by-50-in-six-months



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,755 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I would say they are related. I haven't looked into the statistics that are available (from ONS or CSO) in any depth to see if that could be teased out at all either. However from above posted Guardian article:

    The decline in demand for the ferry services to Wales and Liverpool has also seen Northern Irish ports receiving a Brexit dividend, with freight volumes hitting “unprecedented highs in 2021”.

    Historically, Northern Irish hauliers have preferred the Dublin-Holyhead route as the quickest way to access markets in the south and south-east of England, but some have now eschewed the route “to avoid the new customs requirements involved between Ireland and UK ports”, the reports said.

    It has meant an uplift in traffic in Northern Ireland’s three ports, with a 15% rise in Belfast, 18% in Larne and 20% at Warrenpoint.

    (edit: Sorry misread there and see they meant Ireland-UK trade is now easier done via NI, but I think this applies as much, or even more in other direction).

    I kind of doubt (?) economic growth in NI or an increase in inputs to NI located businesses from UK, which then go into products that are sold onto Ireland or into wider EU can explain that. So, in agreement with their quote presumably alot of it is UK-Ireland stuff avoiding the full EU customs in Dublin or other ports in favour of the cursory checks from GB-NI under the semi-implemented NI Protocol.

    As far as my laymans understanding from the media goes, this is just form filling, maybe with some document checks by UK and no access allowed by UK (for EU) to any of this data to know what is really happening on the ground. Since no less a personage than the UK PM himself directed business to just put customs forms "in the bin", and the UK still can't do it's own customs on EU imports, I somehow doubt the rigour of this is very high.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,539 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    Yeah, I suspect a lot of UK sourced goods destined for here are bypassing customs and going via NI!



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,226 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Goods via Warrenpoint can be in ‘the South’ in 30 mins if required ( dual carriage way)and (mostly) bypass Newry to the *M1.

    *A1/N1/M1 but it’s the same road.

    Post edited by joeysoap on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    In fairness the pound, since Sept 2020 has been gaining on the Euro.

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,257 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    In Feb 2020 it was 83p (1.20) which it has yet to repeat so still trading in the same regions. The recent rise is likely caused by UK inflation given the expectation of a rise in base rate to combat the Brexit caused inflation.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,226 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    .85 today.And I hope it gets better. ( the euro that is) petrol is cheaper in the North. No carbon tax.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    In July 2015 it went as low as £0.69 to the euro. But that was before Brexit.........



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,226 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    As someone who rented a holiday apartment in Tenerife /Portugal/ Spain off an ( usually English owners , but not exclusively so) I am painfully aware that the pound was strong. I am also a border resident so I am definitely aware.



  • Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭Eclectic Econometrics


    An article in the FT

    The US is delaying a deal to remove Trump-era tariffs on UK steel and aluminium because of Washington’s concerns about London’s threats to change post-Brexit trading rules in Northern Ireland.

    Brussels and Washington have repeatedly warned London that unilaterally changing the EU-UK accord that sealed Britain’s exit from the bloc in 2020 could threaten peace on the island of Ireland.

    And on and on, then ends

    The UK department of trade said: “We do not see any connection with this particular issue and the Northern Ireland protocol and it will in no way affect the UK’s approach. That is because significant changes are needed to the protocol in order to protect the Belfast (Good Friday) agreement and Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market.”

    LOL.

    https://www.ft.com/content/608e5634-9894-449d-9a09-4f903f0e7169

    They'll keep acting as if they're presiding over an empire that the sun never sets on, come what may.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    That's fabulous. I imagined Biden would do that as it was an executive power - but great to see.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It's not just Biden that's driving this. Per the FT report, the administration is experiencing "pressure from Congress over the UK's threats" to trigger Art 16.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    Sure- but I believe that these steel tariffs are a presidential power - some commentators were speculating that Trump could do a "deal" with Boris where whisky tariffs were dropped as a "Brexit benefit" for example- while bypassing the ways and means committee



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Yes, and Biden - in theory - could do the same. He doesn't, of course, and my point is that the reason he doesn't is not just that he himself is not inclined to, but also that he is under pressure from sources in Congress not to. Even if he wanted to do something like this, therefore, he would burn some political capital in actually doing it, and that might be a price he would choose not to pay.

    The takeaway is that the US's stance towards the UK and its threats to the Protocol is not something driven just by Biden and his personal sentiments about Ireland; it has a much wider basis that that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭I told ya


    As I understand the position, there are new boarder checks due to come into force on 1 January.

    Have the UK mad any preparations? I'm off the view that they will just postpone them and carry on as normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    As ever, it seems Ireland and the rest of the EU are preparing for these changes (I heard a radio advert on RTE about them yesterday), but we've heard virtually nothing about this from the sham regime or their media.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,755 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    They are going to require that Customs forms be filled out at point of import from the EU in Jan 2022 (instead of allowing them be completed post-import). I don't think they going to postpone that as it is now December (seems too late?).

    "Full" Customs with physical checking of goods from the EU etc. is supposed to begin July next year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,792 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Not a good web page. Typos, and bad links, descriptions that leave a lot to be desired.

    This I found particularly annoying: "The UK’s deal with the EU, called the Trade and Cooperation Agreement..."

    It's a treaty, not a deal. The whole page seems like they stuck a software developer (FD: retired one here) in front of a computer and asked them to slap something together. The excessive use of parentheses in the text is a dead giveaway.

    Further, there are a number of terms that have "legal meaning" like 'statement on origin' that should be in a glossary. They're hand-waved through.


    Very poor page.

    But, it does seem like UK businesses ought to have EU subsidiaries to handle the paperwork on the EU side. Another Brexit benefit - more jobs in the EU. Wait a second....

    Poor UK businesses having to deal with such poor bureaucrats.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's literally bonkers that the UK held a referendum on introducing these numerous barriers and that their public somehow actually voted for it.

    And all for what? There seems to be no benefit or gain for the country whatsoever, zilch.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Blue passports and less immigrants wanting to move to the UK. Both were achieved in fairness but I don't think less immigrants through torching the economy was what Brexiters had in mind



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    This is a gem. The referendum was on the Manifesto in April 2015. 7 years later the full extent won't be known.

    Further changes will be introduced from July 2022, which we’ll let you know more about nearer the time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,755 ✭✭✭fly_agaric



    I thought I (roughly) knew what was changing in January and posted a link to the 1st UK government page I found with a google search confirming that. 

    In fairness to the UK civil servants and gov.uk etc., that looks like to me like a kind of "blog" page (see the "News story" heading) and it is just briefly summarising information taken from elsewhere on their site and providing a few links.

    Didn't think it was that bad (apart from fact I skimmed it at first, and I now see a few typos you mentioned), but I am not a UK business importing goods from the EU or an EU business exporting to the UK.

    Once they are aware change is coming, they need more detailed information than a page like that can provide anyway.

    I think people know what is supposed to happen (i.e. same controls on EU goods they do for any other imports to the UK) but probably question is whether they will be ready to bring these in from July next year or will some/all of them be postponed again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The ironic thing is that EU immigration would have fallen for certain over the following five years after the referendum. So they've trashed their country in order to achieve something that was going to naturally happen anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,792 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Didn't mean to criticize you at all, I thought it was an official UK 'page.' My bad, I guess it is kind of a blog by some rando in the government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I also think as they move to diverge from EU standards and rules, Singapore on the Thames, they'll create the very conditions where under-the-table work is rife, thus attracting more and more economic migrants willing to risk the journey to enter.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Except very few economic migrants come over in the dangerous way. Most illegal under the counter immigrants came in legally on temporary or student visas and overstayed much like the Irish do in the US



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