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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,150 ✭✭✭✭ ArmaniJeanss


    I guess the issue with 'much reduced majority' is that the vulnerable seats are largely going to be from the new intake you referred to earlier that (the North Wall-ers).

    So whilst they have a certain loyalty to Boris for helping get elected in the first place, how far does it extend? "What have you done for me lately?" as the saying goes. I suspect a lot of loyalty will disappear at the first hint that AN Other in charge would up the Tory vote by 2% increasing their chances of saving their seat.

    There'll also be an element of which way is the wind blowing - it's always better to be on the winning team in any leadership situation.

    Personally I think the plan was a spring/summer 2023 election from a position of leading in the polls, with Johnson resigning a year later to make lots of money on the circuit. And enough of the contenders would have been happy to bide their time until then. But as you say 'events, dear boy'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    There's a key word missing from your analysis and that is Labour.

    Johnson is lucky to have a disorganised Labour party with a third-rate front bench led by a perfectly decent but ultimately dull man who has yet to land a significant punch on the PM.

    You've only got to look at the recent 2nd jobs fiasco where Labour launched a big push on Cox for being a millionaire lawyer doing foxxers without thinking about their own milllionaire lawyer leader who wanted to do foxxers until he was stopped by Jeremy Corbyn of all people.

    The plain fact is that Labour voters who deserted the party over its stance on Brexit will always remember Starmers many attempts to overturn the referendum result. Labour's only hope of power in the future without being either a minority government or in a coaltion with the SNP is the leader after Starmer.

    If it happens before the next election, which I doubt, Bozo would be in real trouble. This is where the Tories have always been more ruthless than Labour when it comes to party leaders.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,735 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Back on topic please. Please feel free to discuss the refugee situation elsewhere.



  • Registered Users Posts: 808 ✭✭✭ poker--addict



    Big picture, French people aren’t migrating to the U.K. France and every other country in the world must be incentivised to have illegal people leave their land, and in this case outside EU borders is a bonus?


    Is there laws or parts of Brexit which compel France to stop people leaving France? Or is it just British domestic political distraction that paints France as the problem?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭ yagan


    Thanks to Brexit there's little chance of being sent back, which is probably why attempts have massively increased this year. Johnson and Co may try to play this up as the French being French, but it's the same for any attempt from any EU jurisdiction.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,564 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    From poker-addict - 'Is there laws or parts of Brexit which compel France to stop people leaving France? Or is it just British domestic political distraction that paints France as the problem?'

    Quite the reverse.

    If the UK was still part of the EU, they could invoke the Dublin Protocol where refugees were obliged to claim refugee status in the first EU country they arrived in. Of course, since Jan 2021, that no longer applies, and there is nowhere to send said refugees 'back' to - they have to afford them due process.

    It is all political distraction. They are short of fruit and veg pickers, and short of meat factory workers, and short of HGV drivers. If they brought 10,000 of these refugees into the UK on condition they be trained and then worked to fill these vacancies, then that could be sold as a Brexit benefit. Unfortunately the Brexiteers would not like it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    My one observation, because we have been asked not to discuss refugees on this thread, is that 27 people drowning in the English Channel have been driving the narrative this week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,686 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Well, my comment was about British media and political reaction to the asylum situation post-Brexit, not about the rights and wrongs of it, so is very much on topic.

    I wouldn't agree that the horrible loss of life this week has been the catalyst, this has been building for weeks with the ongoing tabloid coverage and various right wing figures (such as Farage and Patel) stirring things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    Patel is the UK's Home Secretary.

    It is her job to prevent people entering the country illegally and enforcing existing cross-channel agreements between France and the UK that have nothing to do with Brexit.

    What would be your solution to prevent people drowning ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    SNIP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,471 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple


    They can go around in circles all they want, just like Trumpists the biggest problem for them is that reality doesn’t care about whatever lies are told

    UK gdp per capita has hit a wall dozen or so years back and been stuck ever since

    Speaking of interesting facts much noise has been made by Brexiteers about Pavel the plumber driving up price of housing in UK (over in accommodation subforum we have people spewing similar rhetoric) yet with Covid and Brexit number of people coming to uk shrank yet house prices shot up even faster.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    SNIP. No name calling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,443 ✭✭✭ Igotadose


    Bottoms up! Well, the maybe if you're drinking tapwater (though, be careful if you're in the areas where HMG's made it o.k. to discharge untreated sewage): Brexit->Not enough drivers->not enough booze for Christmas

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/25/business/wine-liquor-shortage-uk-christmas/index.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,471 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple


    There is no evidence France actually received this 50 million but plenty of recent articles about promises it be paid



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭ storker


    "I would gladly pay you Toosday, for some security today," as Wimpy might have put it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    Johnson will lose votes over Brexit but not in the way you think.

    The Tories biggest shift in support will come from those who don't think Boris has gone far enough with Brexit - hence the Reform Party polling at similar levels to the Greens and Lib Dems.

    The idea that Red Wall voters have buyer's remorse is nonsense - they're still waiting for the threatened logjam at Dover and Christmas supermarket shelves empty of produce to happen.

    What will eventually do for the Tories is Johnson's green lunacy.No-one likes to be colder and poorer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,471 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple


    Buyers remorse is setting in tho

    colder and poorer is exactly what Brexit resulted in


    when even the telegraph starts to have doubts


    —-

    Heath’s article identifies an amorphous “elite class” who are somehow secretly colluding to block the benefits of Brexit being delivered by plucky ‘Boris’

    The fact that the prime minister is archetypally elite class isn’t mentioned.

    like Trumpets they ending up resorting to conspiracies about deep state BLOB as excuse for failure



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    ' Could ' is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that story.

    As it is in this Observer piece over the weekend which finally concludes there may be a run on pigs in blankets but that everything else will be ok.

    It seems the great Christmas Turkey Shortage Scare of a few weeks ago has been well and truly stuffed :)

    And just take a look at the rivers of booze on offer at Tesco Online or any other supermarket chain in the UK.

    Hardly the action of an industry facing Christmas shortages.

    Didn't anyone learn the lesson from the original Project Fear ?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭ The Raging Bile Duct




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