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Will (or indeed should) the UK ever rejoin the EU?

GM228

At the moment Brexit is still in it's infancy, but the problems and realities of it grew up quickly,

So as the title asks, in light of the ever increasing lists of mess after mess after mess and the realities of Brexit, the damage it is causing to the UK, will reality bite (perhaps 20/30/40 years later?), and should the UK at some point in the future (obviously in need of leaders more in tune with said reality who admit defeat) apply for EU membership?

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fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031938#Comment_118031938

As regards economics, the UK has raised the highest trade barriers in history with 50% of its trade. Outside of wartime, it's actions are without precedent. I seriously seriously question your economics knowledge if you can even suggest that won't have severe and uncompensatably bad effects on the UK economy. Seriously.

As regards the French - you go and believe whatever you want about Macron - if he truly is that powerful then we should be quaking in our boots and glad we have the EU to protect us from him & have him on our side.

As regards the Irish border - the UK was fully entitled to leave with or without a deal - Ireland however is perfectly entitled to say "UK shall keep its commitments to no hard border or else there will be no beneficial trade deal for the UK". You say that the current solution is unsustainable - when it is by far the most sustainable solution. A border with 300 crossings which took up 1 third of the British army and a large amount of the North sea wealth to maintain won't be sustainable. The only 2 other sustainable options are UK re entering the single market or a United Ireland.

Just because we have to listen to fabricated British narratives that it is "not working" - when the UK cannot set up GB borders because they would result in total chaos and the UK refused longer transition periods for NI to make it look bad - and the UK tries (and failed) to spark loyalist violence and the UK needs to bring forward its nonsense attacks on the protocol because the fuel, food & worker shortages etc etc are becoming too obvious to ignore - and the negative comparisons

On British BSE infections - you haven't been paying attention - it's back again & foreign markets for British beef are collapsing. That's EU & China gone - so obviously unscrupulous people will be more than happy to look to the now unprotected market next door with access to the EU.

https://plantbasednews.org/lifestyle/health/china-beef-imports-mad-cow-disease/

Same economics effects work for UK sewage-seafood - they've lost their EU markets and Ireland is now unprotected .

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030786#Comment_118030786

Not sure where you are going with your EU army being needed to take action against Poland. Economic sanctions would be far cheaper, and far more effective than launching missiles at them and crossing the border with tanks (or whatever way you think international relations work!).

Poland's big issue if it decided to alienate itself from its current allies would be the sleeping bear to the east (or to its North if you want to be pedantic)

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032010#Comment_118032010

Time will tell on the economics front but you are continuing to assume that all the UK is doing is increasing trade barriers.

The border agreement is a fudge, yes Brexit caused this problem but the Irish, EU and the UK signed a ridiculous agreement to try and tick every box, it will continue to cause problems until all sides agree a border (and not it doesn't have to be a big fence with soldiers) has to exist. They exist across the world. Yes a United Ireland gets rid of the problem and that may fix it but that is for the North to decide on. The reality is now the North is in the UK and the UK is outside the EU so therefore a border in some shape or form has to exist.

As for BSE one cow in Somerset , seriously?? Ireland had a BSE cow and China banned us for over a year if I remember correctly and only recently reinstated us. China being that paragon of food safety and an open free society, it's political....

tinytobe

I think the situation in the UK would have to get worse from an economic perspective. This would increase the pressure to do something. It may also be the trigger for some kind of early election? We don't know.

I don't think that in the long run, the UK will be successful outside the EU, not at the stage things are now. Maybe if they had an arrangement like Switzerland or Norway, it may work, but not the way it's done now. Empty shelves one only knew from communist eastern Europe, and long queues for petrol, they didn't even have that in communist East Germany, as far as I know. The Brexit-UK economy will be one of shortages and disruption whilst no immigrant will show interest in a short term visa scheme, also the low value of the pound will make it a bit less attractive. From the NHS doctors and nurses to truck drivers, to butchers, and other essential jobs which were traditionally done by EU / Polish citizens won't be filled this easily. This will continue to hamper any strong and pronounced economic growth and keep direct foreign investment quite possibly subdued for more than a while.

If the British labour party was smart, they would advocate a re-entry into the EU. However the labour party is too focused on classical socialism, and thinks the EU is too capitalist, as it's something mainly economic driven.

Sam Russell

BSE has been detected in England in the last month. The outbreak is under investigation, so, until the details are reported, one cannot say whether he reaction is political. [If only China had been as quick and open about Covid]

It is one animal at present, but there is yet to be a report on the matter.

Britain has already moved away from EU rules regarding some insecticides banned by the EU. They have allowed the use of some GMO products banned in the EU. There needs to be full SPS surveillance on the Irish Sea border, and weakening such checks is a big mistake.

BSE and F&M are things we do not want here.

https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/09/bse-found-in-cow-in-england/

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032085#Comment_118032085

The EU is 50% of trade, and no doubt as someone who has studied economics you will understand the concept of "economic gravity".

Not only that but the only other large markets are problematic at best - China is not on friendly terms with the UK and the US itself doesn't even have an integrated service market for its own States - so is hardly going to be able to offer that to the UK.

That's why the UK government's own assessments were that a deal with the US would be worth a whopping 0.07% - but then only after 15 years.

So yes, it is very easy for someone with even a basic understanding of economics to know that brexit is a "put gun to the side of your head and pull the trigger" type decision.

Which is of course why the Brexiters have shifted to a "we wanted brexit to empower our corrupt secretive, duplicitous & autocratic elite" as their argument.

Northern Ireland itself is a contested fudge. Brexit is a contested fudge - with 50% of the population disagreeing with the very concept. Why should we care what the UK wants- these were and are Ireland's terms: no hard border or economic destruction & international pariah-dom for the UK. That's a pretty sweet offer.

And economic destruction is not a sustainable position for the UK - hence it has 3 options: no brexit; no NI or no hard border. They just have to pick one. They may need to be taught some harsh lessons before they get there - but if the lesson is sufficiently painful, they'll get there eventually.

So now you admit the UK has ongoing BSE issues - and has lost its biggest hoped-for foreign market aside from the EU. Where do you- with your economics education- think all of that now near worthless partly BSE infected beef is going to go?

And would the existence of an island next door with loyalist criminal smuggling gangs and a market without customs checks have any influence on your answer?

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032186#Comment_118032186

Further on the economics argument: it isn't simply a question of trade deals either. The UK shrunk its market (for supplies, visa-free ready manpower) from 500 million people down to 70 million. Previously it could rely on logistic system redundancy shared with that 500 million - HGV drivers could come and go, etc. Now, that it is alone it needs to build massive amounts of otherwise useless and resource draining redundancy and storage at every step of its supply chains. All of that needs to be paid for by the British.

They also need to pay for tens of thousands of public and private sector customs agents plus their accommodation and other business expenses plus pay for vets etc.

Parroting Brexiter slogans of "you just have to wait 50 years" and "nobody gave true brexit a chance" is simply a denial of the basics of economics. I suppose as an faith based ideology it is something it shares that with communism.

techman1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031496#Comment_118031496

But the eu has no real independent power, it only has power by agreement of its member States and their willingness to comply with its decisions, it has no independent enforcement power, no police or army, that is a fundamental of a political union.

A German court has also ignored a European court ruling with regard to bond purchase by the ECB, it said the European court over stepped its mandate and the German court was the final law, there was no consequences, it was just forgotten about. Now Poland is using this precedent to also ignore the European court

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032186#Comment_118032186

I think Fash the issue with so much discussion on here and you are following the pattern is a lack of middle ground perspective.

The arguments for economic self harm that Brexit brings through increased trade barriers with the EU are sound but there is no willingness to see it may bring other benefits. And then you post comments above about empowering our corrupt secretive......etc etc and expect me to take it seriously and then one cow in Somerset turns into a plague of BSE infected meat.....just like Ireland didn't become a BSE infected hole when we had one cow with BSE a couple of years back.

And then your comment on loyalist criminal smuggling gangs, what are you talking about ?? They are hard at work currently, I believe there are only two options for the border. You either have one or you have a United Ireland and that is not our decision. Either way we will have a drugs / smuggling problem as we do today.

Brexit whether you like it or not has happened. We as Irish people can either continue on our current path of pouring scorn on it and forget the benefits of having 65 million people plus next door to us who are more than happy to buy our goods and visit us for holidays etc etc or be a touch more mature, take the higher moral ground and see how we can work with it. Ultimately I know which I would prefer to see but if you want to continue down the path feel free to do so. I just don't see how it benefits Ireland especially considering the shared history of these two islands.

For me it is time to change the tune but you do what you see fit.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032322#Comment_118032322

In Germany, there were consequences - court proceedings were initiated.

For Poland, money is being withheld - & there will be proceedings as well if it escalates that far.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032357#Comment_118032357

1. As regards brexit "benefits", while I'm sure certain sections can argue for intangible benefits (just as North Korea can argue for the intangible benefits of not being connected to the rest of the world), from an economics perspective, there is no version of reality where brexit makes economic sense - unless a magical world of Narnia or a super wealthy undersea and populous Atlantis just off the shore of Scotland exists. Otherwise, no - the benefits are at best tiny the economic costs are vast as are the political and other costs - the inability to influence EU legislation affecting British manufacturers & service providers (and around the world), to speak internationally on behalf of Europe, to offer freedoms to its people and to valuable and sought after migrants who can go elsewhere, to send refugees back to France, to hold hassle-free international court cases, the loss of stability and push for independence of UK regions etc etc

As regards BSE- tell that to the Chinese who banned British beef. Again where is all of that worthless and partly BSE infected beef going to go now? Are you honestly suggesting it will not be sent to Northern Ireland? Are you honestly suggesting that the UK is (and will continue to be) operating the NI protocol rigorously?

Any border region brings particular opportunities for smuggling based on the customs arbitrage - that is a consequence of brexit reintroducing differing customs areas - are you suggesting that the loyalist smugglers are not going to exploit the opportunities of lowered checks?

As regards options, again there are 5:

1. An Irish sea border (which the UK chose);

2. An economic purgatory which the UK cannot survive;

3. A United Ireland;

4. No brexit;

5. A SM brexit (giving up control).

Those are the options facing the UK. It is, as you said, not for Ireland to choose on behalf of the UK. Of note, the only way for the UK to avoid a United Ireland and no brexit for long is to maintain a sea border. A hard border in Ireland would be rejected by the local population and kick off a relentless push on both sides of the border to bring about a United Ireland, would cost a fortune in military assets for the UK to patrol & would be occurring at the same time as the complete economic collapse of the UK & the final shredding of any international standing and friendships it had.

And I'll change my tune when the UK stops duplicitously reneging on agreements and trying to **** over Ireland. If the UK needs to be broken for that to occur - then so be it.

Edit: I would also note that in order for brexit to have been a success, the EU needed to be destroyed. When that didn't happen, there were only the 5 "humiliating" forms of brexit mentioned above. Brexiters real issue is with the humiliation that any form of realistic brexit brings to the UK - and the fact that admitting brexit was a stupid idea is itself humiliating.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032552#Comment_118032552

Thanks for that Fash, quite clear where you stand on the issue, your comment about the UK trying to ***** over Ireland paints a clear picture of your mindset on this. In essence this is what I was talking about in my very first post which you reacted to so strongly. You laugh at the economic stupidity of the UK leaving the EU but are quite happy to talk openly about breaking the UK oblivious to the impact a failing UK would have on Ireland.

As I said I believe it is time for us to move on and accept Brexit and see what we can get out of it and we are uniquely placed with a strong self interest to calm things down and move things forward with the UK. Long before the EU even existed these two nations of Ireland and the UK agreed a common travel area which uniquely ties us to the UK and gives citizens of both jurisdictions privileges and access to each others country with no restrictions. Whether you like it or not Ireland and the UK are joined at the hip in so many ways.

We can agree to disagree perhaps.

And talk to anyone in the police force in the North and they will tell you Loyalist Gangs are quite happy now with a fluid open border and no checks.....

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032687#Comment_118032687

- and what else do you call trying to duplicitously renege on various treaties in breach of international law to force Ireland out of the single market/to subject it to British control and to threaten to reignite violence if they do not get their way other than "trying to**** over". Why, when even the Americans & Kiwis amongst others have condemned UK behaviour, are you excusing it?

I am perfectly happy to see UK succeed - but not at expense of Ireland. As the UK wishes to force Ireland to bear the costs of the choices of its political elite, you are damned right that I view this as a "them or us" situation - where there is no cost too high that they need to bear for their own decisions. These are their choices- they need to live with them and they need to bear the cost - not us. If the cost to ensure that Ireland remains free and does not acquiesce to a permanent border through the country is the complete economic collapse of the UK (a mere 7% and falling of Irish exports) - that is price I'm happy to see the UK pay for its freely made choices.

Prior to EEC/EU membership, Irish exports were 90% to the UK and its currency was tied to sterling. Ireland was not independent. The UK decided to join the EEC - and Ireland was obliged to follow. The UK initially decided to join Schengen, Ireland followed, the UK then thought again - and Ireland copied it. If the UK made its threats to Ireland to starve the country and wage an economic war at that point, Ireland would have been forced to its knees.

Ireland hasn't changed the relationship with the UK - the UK has. Did they think or care about Ireland when they decided to brexit in the way they did? Answer: obviously not - they thought they could force Ireland out of the single market and back under the control of corrupt British elites.

And those loyalist gangs are going to be much happier with no checks to the GB mainland, high food standards in Ireland/the EU and customs differences to arbitrage.

Now imagine if instead of that border being in a few ports it was spread out along a couple of hundred miles with over 300 crossing points.

So I fully agree with your point that Ireland needs to force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI protocol to ensure that doesn't happen.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032815#Comment_118032815

Fash you are more than free to continue on with your position and we can agree to disagree on where things stand but don't misquote me - I don't think Ireland should 'force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI Protocol to ensure that doesn't happen'.

I think the NI Protocol is a load of nonsense that makes no sense at all and all parties who signed it are at fault. Ireland simply signed it so our politicians could claim they prevented a hard border, the EU signed it to support Ireland but also fully aware it was putting the UK in an impossible position putting a border through the middle of their country and Boris made a mistake signing it as he was under ludicrous pressure to get something over the line and hoped to fudge and fiddle his way out of it down the line which he is currently trying to do. It was and always has been a flawed fudge and everyone is to blame. The insane thing about the Protocol is it was never needed. People under Common Travel Area legislation can freely move between the North and South and all that is needed is goods checks which can largely be done through trusted trader schemes and random monitoring. But politically it was viewed as impossible to have any form of a 'border' - people immediately jumped to the conclusion that we'd have wire fences and soldiers......not required.

The UK is an independent country now and that includes NI. Ireland is an EU member state and we need a border on the NI border to protect the EU and in reverse the UK if you look at from a different perspective - in short it's not science - two countries iwith different customs / tarriffs and standards potentially. I understand it's political minefield to have a border but it doesn't mean it isn't needed.

Yes a united Ireland gets around it but that is not an Irish decision - only the North can make that decision themselves. It is nothing to do with us.

By the way Ireland was an Independent Country prior to joining the EU - you seem to be rewriting history now too. Ireland made those decisions and they were not imposed on us by the UK.

Your other statement is also very revealing - corrupt British elites forcing Ireland out of the Single Market and back under British Control ???? Do you seriously believe any of this stuff ????

Brexit was and always has been a very simple question, do you want to stay in the EU - the answer was no, and they left. Has it caused problems for Ireland, yes, but that was not the intention of the referendum.

[Deleted User]

Ah so it's the EUs fault that Boris signed an internationally binding agreement?

Sure...

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032926#Comment_118032926

Didn't say that - all parties are at fault. The NI protocol never made any sense, will never make any sense and will continue to cause endless problems. It was signed by all parties as a fudge to a problem which there is no answer to. Ireland doesn't want a border between North and South but with the de facto position now of the UK and the EU being in different customs and standards regimes means a border is absolutely required.

We can all try and ignore the fact and honestly I see the problems but the border is an essential requirement - idiotic politicians can come up with whatever fudge they see fit to pretend it isn't needed but it is and until that fact is recognised we will keep going round the houses on this one.

There are only three potential solutions:

i) Have a border.

ii) UK rejoins the EU.

iii) United Ireland.

Anything else is just nonsense.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030805#Comment_118030805

What will ultimately kill the EU will be IF and it’s very possible...that that the EU continue to disregard the safety and wellbeing of the citizens of its member states...

122 Islamic terror attacks have occurred in the EU since 2015. 382 people were murdered in these attacks and thousands more injured. EU states are having to spend millions more on security, counter terrorism, intelligence etc... yet practically zero tangible control on their borders...

The UK won’t rejoin, I can see other countries in years looking at joining them.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032959#Comment_118032959

If that breaks up EU then the people in EU are even more stupid then you think they are; the number #1 source of terrorist attacks are not Muslims but home grown by separatists followed by leftist movements. Why waste billions on screening at the border for something that don't make up even 15% of the terrorist attacks?

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032889#Comment_118032889

You can say the NIP is a "load of nonsense" - but it (i.e. an Irish Sea border) is the ONLY solution to a non-SM brexit where NI remains in UK, there is no return to a border in Ireland & Ireland remains free. It's all well and good to say you don't think it's a perfect solution - but then you explain (and defend) your choice.

Ireland's demands of the UK were very simple and limited - and the UK immediately promised them - "no hard border" . The NIP was the only solution the UK could come up with and accept- what else would you want ireland to do? Invade the UK? Occupy Northern Ireland?

Johnson put himself in his position by advocating brexit, forcing through the hardest of hard brexits AND wanting a withdrawal agreement. He didn't have to sign the withdrawal agreement - he and his 80 seat majority could have left with no deal - "no deal is better than a bad deal" - remember that?

"No hard border" was the price Ireland wanted in return for the UK having a withdrawal agreement - they got the withdrawal agreement they wanted, now they must pay the relevant price.

So what it your solution: you honestly believe that Ireland should accept a hard border? Obviously those 300+ crossing points would need to be reduced (again) to something manageable - which routes would you block? The same as last time?

A border through Ireland will obviously be militarised - how many minutes would pass by at the 300 crossings dividing villages from their hinterlands before the first British customs official forcing checks on locals who don't accept brexit or believe they should be part of the UK gets shot? Do you think it would be more or less than 5 minutes? Why?

How much smuggling would there be through this border? How quickly would GMO foods& British BSE beef take before being found in every town in Ireland? What would the criminal gangs do with all the money they made from that? Start a charity?

If any Irish politician signed a treaty accepting that, how long do you think that politician would stay alive? Longer or shorter than Michael Collins? How long would their political party stay in existence? Do you think it would be gone and lost forever within a week or a month?

I'm very interested in your response.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032946#Comment_118032946

There are answers - I pointed them out - the UK and Johnson led us here- let him pay the price to get us out. I say no to your hard border in Ireland.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033016#Comment_118033016

The UK and Ireland now being in different customs and standards regimes necessitates the need for an border as long as NI remains part of the UK.

This is just a reality. The border need not be troops and fences and with a combination of modern tech and monitoring and random checking it could be relatively un-invasive and people under the CTA can travel freely anyway so no issues there. If people choose to start shooting that ultimately is their call, it doesn't change the reality of needing a border between two countries.

You are painting the emotive picture of British Troops and militarisation............not required if the two governments got together and worked it out amicably.

I fully understand why it's an emotive issue, why it was weaponised and why people view it as non-negotiable but it doesn't mean it's not required.

We can talk this round in circles all you want and couch it all in emotive language but reality is reality and as long as people avoid it the mess will continue.

The NIP is a load of nonsense and always was, a political fudge and 10 months into this mess it still is.

Do I like the mess no, is it what anyone wanted in Ireland ? Don't think so but it's an unfortunate side effect of Brexit but that has happened now.

Ultimately it's all language. What is a hard border ?

If we had trusted trader schemes, technology and random stops and checks on goods moving across the border with free movement of people is that a hard border ?

It almost became Option A) No Border. B) Wire, Closed crossings and British Army. Why ?

There is a middle ground.

Podge_irl

The UK was given ample opportunity to demonstrate how their supposed smart border would work and they ultimately produced nothing. Suggesting you could have a border with just technology and trusted trader schemes is utter fantasy. This is like groundhog day.

The UK won't be re-joining any time soon anyway. It is far too much of an ideological issue for them at this point. However, I suspect they may start aligning bit by bit over the coming years, probably while announcing great new deals every time.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033095#Comment_118033095

No there is no middle ground - look at what checks need to be done in France. Those checks need people to undertake them - and without an army, those people are soft targets. If there is a single person sympathetic to IRA ideology anywhere in Ireland with a weapon, the first death of a customs official sparks off an immediate and irreversible (in the circumstances) militarisation. (Which is what happened the last time).

Imposing a border in northern Ireland cutting off villages from their hinterlands which are fully open (in breach of the GFA strand 2 obligations let's not forget) will not be accepted by the locals (and why should it).

If you think "trusted trader", facial recognition for sheep, blockchain and all that nonsense works- then it obviously works far, far more easily between NI & GB than between NI & Irl. And don't forget those checks become ever more onerous & important as the UK diverges more and more from the EU.

Furthermore, no it is not a "reality", the UK signed up to the NIP - and the UK government won an election on the back of the "oven ready deal" which"got brexit done".

It is accepted by & benefitted from by the people of Northern Ireland (who let's not forget voted to remain in the EU & single market), it was approved by the Northern Ireland Assembly - who are you to tell them they need to bow to the Brexiters' plan to renege on the UK's solemn undertakings?

It is working perfectly well insofar as it is being operated. NI shelves & petrol stations are full, and NI is attracting investment and exports to the EU are significantly up. It is only through attempted sabotage by UK government, the UK's intentional delay of checks into GB to delay the grim reality of brexit on GB by comparison and the UK government's hurried attempts to get their false narrative out before reality intrudes too much ( which would have been around Christmas if they haven't entered a trade war by then), that makes it seem in any way otherwise as the moment (and even now it's fairly obvious that the UK narrative that it's "not working" is being shown up more & more by food & fuel shortages, wastages of vegetables, animals & milk, inflation, waste not being collected and various other shortages at a snowballing rate).

And again, how long do you think the Irish politician who agrees to that is likely to stay alive? Or that their party stays in existence?

topmanamillion

The British will never rejoin the EU as that would be them admitting defeat.

I would imagine there'll be a softening of the rhetoric over the next decade or so and a realisation that there will need to be some cooperation from the British towards the EU. They may even rejoin the single market and become a Norway/Switzerland/Iceland type. The likes of America turning their nose up at the British as they have done in the last few months will help speed that process up.

The British need to be very careful they dont turn into an Argentina or Venezuela. Once prosperous and successful countries whos p1ss poor policies plunged them into the dark ages. And there is a real possibility thats where the British are headed with their current policies.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033205#Comment_118033205

Agree in a way and yes it will be groundhog day for sometime to come folks....

Suspect yes in time as tensions lower on all sides (it is all very emotive still) closer cooperation and alignment will result to a point and that is probably the best solution all round.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033215#Comment_118033215

The NIP isn't in functional place yet, keeps getting extended....

Look one thing we can agree on is that there is no easy solution to this but when you have two countries with differing customs and standards a border is required. That is just like saying rain is wet and sugar is sweet. The fudge we have now won't ever be fully implemented or will result in a trade war if Britain or the EU declares Article 16.

Do I want a border in Ireland, of course not but it is the only solution bar a United Ireland that is not a messy fudge that either won't ever be fully implemented or results in a trade war.

The only other option and this may we be the end result in time, as really I am struggling to see a fix here ( and yes I know no Irish government will ever agree to a border) is having a theoretical border down the Irish Sea which in time the UK doesn't actually enforce or pay any attention to and in turn the EU ignores any lack of enforcement.

That may we be the de facto status quo and if so perhaps it is for the best.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033291#Comment_118033291

The NIP is mostly functional - let's not forget the "80% of checks are being carried out by UK customs officials" line and just last week, after months & months of delay, the UK finally started sharing their data with the EU for example.

Meanwhile, checks for moving goods into the UK are estimated to first be in place in 2025.

Why did the UK absolutely insist on implementing the NIP without warning or business preparation - while waiting years to do the same for GB?

A16 does not implement a trade war. Invoking A16 in good faith certainly doesn't - and even invoking A16 but only using it within its remit does not

Reneging on the protocol, however, does initiate a trade war - and it will not be the EU that takes that step.

An Irish sea border (which we have) is the only solution (aside from revoking hard brexit and not uniting Ireland). It is agreed, it is accepted and it must be enforced. Why should it not? You yourself said that trusted trader stuff etc. is easy - why can't all of that be used on the Irish sea border? There has been an SPS border between NI & GB for a long time, soil cannot be imported since 1972 I believe, and aside from entirely different laws, there have even been different customs.

As for a "non enforced border" - that goes back to Ireland being literally forced to swallow British BSE infected beef that they cannot sell anywhere else in the world and so smuggle into Ireland. Again slightly earlier you were explaining how easy it would be to have "alternative arrangements" at the British border in Ireland - why would it be so difficult to enforce the same in the sea?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032959#Comment_118032959

Leaving the EU would suggest there was a rival 450m strong Single Market and Customs Union in Europe for them to join.

That not being the case, that would suggest they would leave for purely political reasons and on a whim, even if it might wreck their economy in the process.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032946#Comment_118032946

Why is the EU at fault?

UK were told their options were all of UK in the Single Market, adhering to the 4 pillars, or NI in.

London chose to have NI in and to sign a treaty

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033367#Comment_118033367

NIP isn’t functional atm and both sides are sabre rattling atm over a trade war....

Well the simple reason is having an Irish Sea Border (in actual practice and not just some made up fudge where no one is checking anything) is never going to be acceptable to Unionists. That is the long and the short of it and we all know that.

Yes a United Ireland fixes it but that is another story altogether.

As for your fixation on BSE it is really quite amazing.....that poor cow in Somerset !! They must be dropping dead all over the UK as we speak.