A Sinn Fein - FF + Others coalition.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to work out what will happen.
Jim O'Callaghan says groundwork vital ahead of border poll - The Irish News
Irish unity referendum 'would not be needed in Republic of Ireland'
I think after a pro-United Ireland referendum passes in the north that it should be respected as the end of the matter. There are many reasons why it would be a bad idea to have a referendum in a country that's very existence is predicated on unification.
It would also head-off elements that despise the idea of a UI whose views we see here often. I have little doubt that partitionists would allow themselves to be used by Unionists and the imperialist Tory element in Britain such is their hatred of all-Ireland unity.
After a UI we would need to take internal security seriously and seek out and severely punish people in sensitive positions in Ireland acting as agents for the British state, start as we mean to finish.
We constitutionally aspire to a UI - it's a given and I am confident once a plan is in place it will be a landslide in favour.
Please don't deny me the pleasure of seeing partitionists coming out and having to align with the worst of belligerent Unionism and Tory imperialists. Please! 😁
I'm not so much worried about partitionists as I am about elements within British state who'd see a unified Ireland as a threat and would seek to foment a civil war in Ireland. I believe accepting a pro-UI vote in the north, as the end of the matter, would help to ameliorate the threat. Those seeking permanent partition should be the ones to come up with a vision for it and see how they can sell it after a the gears of a United Ireland begin to turn.
So people in Ireland shouldn't be allowed to vote on a United Ireland?
Only people in the six counties, which is very good of us IMO.
We would have to pay for it so yes we should have a vote on it
A border poll will be taken on both sides of the border
well I would expect so, but I am asking the above posters if that's what they believe should happen?
They will probably tell you the Republic shouldn’t have a vote because when asked recently if the Republic wanted a United ireland it was a strong yes but they wanted it at no additonal taxes which is impossible in the current climate as the Repulic would end up with a very very expensive bill
Both sides of border said they are unwilling to pay any additional taxes.
Poll here https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/centenaries/centenarypoll/majority-favour-a-united-ireland-but-just-22pc-would-pay-for-it-40375875.html
We already constitutionally aspire to a UI. (1998 referendum)
Not without an alternative because there will be no going back to comfortable partitionist status quo the day after a rejection of a United Ireland in the South. Forget that.
So, do you believe we shouldn't have a vote on a United Ireland?
Alternative to what?
It's a yes/no question isn't it?
I think we should have one, because we'd never hear the end of it, if we didn't. I think it is unnecessary though given the constitutional position. I would expect somebody to possibly challenge a decision to hold one here on those grounds, which would be interesting.
Eh, what do you think would happen if there was a no vote for a UI in the South after a pro UI vote in the North?
Everyone just goes back to how it was? Try gaming it out in your mind just a little bit.
The utter lack of foresight in people is incredible.
What's the alternative then?
The GFA referendum wasn't a Yes or No. All we were asked was would we agree to the change in articles two and three.
which was a yes no answer.
all referendums are a yes no answer
I don't know what country you're living in but the one I'm living in is an unfinished project with the goal of unification as its end state. If you want to reject that then it is you and your fellow travellers who will have to come up with a vision for a permanently partitioned state with a new flag, new anthem, new constitution, and complete rejection of the history of this country, because you will not be allowed to inherit the current ones. No chance in hell.
As I said, you don't need to be a grand chess master to think a few moves ahead in all this, a rudimentary understanding of Connect Four will do.
It wasn't a Yes No on the GFA itself though. It was done that way so that a NO would mean re-working the wording and presenting it again - not just throwing out the agreement.
A UI referendum will likely be much the same, we'll be asked to make constitutional change to allow it.
Of course it was on a constitutional change. That's why we have referendums.
Assuming a lot there Tom.
????
Those thinking they'd wake up the next day after rejecting a UI are the ones 'assuming a lot'. They assume they'd go back to their comfortable lives while the north has voted see out the vision for the country. They assume that there wouldn't be a constitutional crisis. They assume a United Ireland wouldn't be declared the day after a pro-UI vote in the north. They assume our flag, that predates partition, and symbolically represents unification, would be appropriate. They assume that the 1916 Proclamation would be forgotten about, and so on.
Most of all you assume that the issue would just go away, that's never happening.
Results of a new Lucid Talk poll, make for uncomfortable reading for some. Is it time to put the Independent NI (it's in the 4% grouping) notion firmly to bed? *Note the question here - it is not asking how you would vote tomorrow.
So 59% want to remain part of the UK. That's a lot of ground to be made up especially with only 5% remaining in the other two options that could be swayed to a UI.
You are making assumptions. We don't know how that 29% would vote if there is no 'special arrangement' that is workable. A stern warning for belligerent Unionism there.
It is also noteworthy that those 'special arrangements' are not seen as 'staying in the UK' which is a separate choice being made. An indication that that cohort are quite happy with both jurisdictions coming closer together.
And also jh79, study the Scottish Indy referendum...9% is not a 'lot of ground to make up'. In fact it is miniscule.
We do know that 29% have a preference for remaining in the UK so the split would favour remaining.
At the end of the day both countries coming closer together is not a UI.
Also, if there is no protocol then the "how would you vote tomorrow" polls become relevant and they also favour remaining in the UK .
You don't know what way that 29% will break in a Yes/No referendum, ALL you know is that their preference right now is for alternative arrangements that could include anything up to joint authority.
If no alternative arrangements were to be found then 36% would favour a UI and 30% would favour remaining with the 29% votes to play for.
Sin é, you can say no more than that or it is just an 'assumption'.
It's also my opinion that if alternative arrangements can't be found a poll is essential.
ideally no as we already aspire to it so the question has been answered as far as the ROI is concerned.
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