The same people will be shouting about a United Ireland the next week. Most people will just look and laugh at them
They don't need to go into coalition with SF. Confidence and Supply agreement would do the job as it did the job for FG in the 2016 Government. That helped FF increase its vote, not lose it which is what will happen if they want to stick with FG.
SF have not promised the sun moon and stars to anyone and nor do people want them to. What is wanted is for them to sort out housing and health as its not working. Seriously, Leo siding with the landlord class vulture funds last week! Thats the promise SF voters will want. Fix housing and health.
FF will not survive if they go into coalition with SF as the junior partner, that would be the worst thing they could possibly do and would be the end of the party. Going into opposition is their only hope if SF are to lead the government.
SF have promised the sun, the moon and the stars to voters. Going into opposition against that, and holding them to their promises, will be infinitely better than going into coalition and having the old "well the only reason SF aren't delivering on all their promises is because FF are not letting them".
I do not see anything other than FF and FG opposing any SF led government, any other scenario just makes no sense whatsoever.
Agree but politicians and commentators here are great at sniffing the wind and spouting what they think people want to hear. They'll run with the hare and hunt with the hounds on issues like this, talk out of every possible side of their mouths. Already this morning you can hear the commentary: "Coveney could go............ but I wouldn't go myself" In other words you're screwed if you do and screwed if you don't.
fantastical idea that FF are really secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners
FF as a whole may not be "secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners" but many of them are at least willing to contemplate the possibility
And that's only the ones who were willing to stick their head above the parapet this year.
As for
why on earth would SF have any interest in going into government with FF?
You play the hand the electorate dealt you. As you say SF's strong preference would be for a broad left government not involving FF or FG but if the numbers are not there for that they are pragmatic enough to look at other options. They were certainly jumping on any signs of encouragement from FF after the last election.
Mr Doherty said he welcomed the fact that Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin has apparently softened his stance towards coalition with Sinn Féin adding “they have now recognised that this election has changed everything”.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30981166.html
No idea why he would get abuse, apart from the usuals. If people want a United Ireland they need to at least make an attempt with both sides of the community. SF as the biggest party in Ireland and part of the Assembly in Northern Ireland should be attending.
I didn't see anyone complaining with Arlene went to a GAA match in Monaghan. Seems some people expect the unionist community in Northern Ireland to just disappear, it won't and it shouldn't.
Well they set about viciously cannibalising the Labour vote previously and largely succeeded. There's no love among parties of the so called left here. Other parties like PBP would also be under pressure but there's only so many votes in these groups to grab. So SF need to go after the middle ground and their principal strategy at the moment is to chip away and undermine the FF vote.
No great fan of Coveney but fair dues to him if he can put his fingers in his ears and attend this church service in Armagh on our behalf. He'll be slaughtered though - a case of needing a stiff back and two fingers to the begrudgers inc president Higgins. The idea that representatives of all three government parties would go is also a good one, to spread the abuse.
No, they wouldn't be dying to jump into bed with SF, but they want to survive. Just bear in mind that Mary Lou actually comes from the FF gene pool and that most of the SF leadership are untainted personally with a paramilitary past, so flinging that mud won't have that traction anymore, particularly outside of Ireland.
I think people may have a little difficulty with FFG and their management of the country and the reason why SF are gaining in popularity is because as opposition, they are actually calling them out on that. FG have been in power far too long and have grown arrogant. SF are the only ones speaking up for the younger generation and more vulnerable in society.
Most of FF's support used to come from small farmers, lower middle classes, pensioners etc. Their supporters do not like that FF is exactly the same as FG, so if they don't do a radical change (lead by someone like Jim O'Callaghan), they will be wiped out by SF.
FG was in power for 4 years in a minority Government with an agreement on the Programme for Government with FG for those years. On the back of that, FF got back in the game. Why do you think that FF wouldn't have a similar arrangement with SF, particularly when SF & FF would have similar ideologies - much closer anyway than FG/FF were 15/20 years ago?
FF as the smaller party in a government led by SF would be disastrous for FF not for SF.
Personally I see the next general election being just the first of a number of them in fairly quick succession.
I suggest you read up on how a government is formed. We had this confusion last year and I hope it won't be repeated again
Correct. If SF is going to go all-in on the Change guff and tell us that there needs to be a government without FF or FG they cannot do an about-face and do a deal with FF.
The only option for them is SF+ Everyone else, which is a hard task given the numbers.
This has some interesting projections based on the high current polls of SF.
Basically, SF seats top out at 59 and that includes things like taking two seats in Kerry, which means one of the Healy-Raes losing out, taking 3 seats in Donegal, which won't happen, taking 3 seats in Louth which won't happen... you get the picture.
If all the stars align for SF they will get 60 seats MAX! They are still 20 seats short and to be honest you want a few seats to spare.
The projection also says, Labour 3, SD 3, Greens 2, PBP 3. That is 11 so they are short. Can they also get 9 Indo's onboard? LOL
It will be a nightmare for them to try and cobble together a government without FF or FG.
No way in hell would FG go in with SF and FF would drive a very VERY hard bargain and their newfound vote would leave SF in droves. They would be back to 10-12% overnight if they went in with FF.
ROFL
SF in power, so close yet so far......
So, you want to see FF support a minority SF government... ROFL...
If SF are the party with the most seats in the next Dail they won't be too bothered about who they go into government with.
There are no principals when it comes to power, only practicalities.
Actually, looking at the numbers again I would say the only possible government that could be formed out of this is a repeat of the current one, just with FG and FF switching places.
Nothing else is there that I can see.
This is the thing, SF have gone full on attack at FF/FG/Greens across the boards. Calling them every name under the sun and trying to make out they are all idiots. If SF had any cop on they would have figured out they need someone to join them in a few years to get into government and they would have majority so they would lead. But they don't, they think abusing people will make them want to work with them
That is why I laugh about the grass roots comments. If you use FF social media and they release a video, you see FF supporters asking questions and they get attacked from every direction by SF supporters, then people actually think those people will want anything to do with SF? no chance.
The great coalition from the left, don't make me laugh. Paul Murphy and the likes want to sit in the back, doing nothing, getting paid and release the odd snippet to the press to remind everyone they are still around.
SF cannot go into government with FF or FG, and FG and FF cannot go into government with SF. These scenarios make no sense.
So that makes things a bit more difficult but it's not impossible. It just means, if the vote ended up like the poll suggest, you'd be looking at a government made up of 4/5 parties. I don't see a SF route with just 3 parties. Even if they managed to get the GP and Labour, they'd still be short.
But it's still a long time to the election.
You are right, plus based on the recent poll SF are taking votes from the other parties and not really off the government parties.
Also lets not forget at the last election SF managed to get no parties to join up with them. Hardly a great sign for the future.
Based on what? the people I see on here posting about "FF grass roots" haven't a clue what they want or don't want.
Plus SF spent the last 12month + telling everyone how s**t FF are, why are they suddenly going to partner with such a terrible party?
Let's ignore the fantastical idea that FF are really secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners, why on earth would SF have any interest in going into government with FF? This is absolutely nonsensical.
SF's entire MO is about being different to the current lot, yet you think they're going to want to bring half of the current lot back with them? There would be no credibility in this.
A few heads would explode on this thread if that ever happened. Imagine the mental gymnastics required trying to support a SF/FF government given much of the commentary about FF coming from the SF base the past few years.
SF's only route to government is one that does not involve FF or FG, which basically means they need a grand coalition of practically everyone else. Or they need to get a larger vote share than they are currently polling for (entirely possible, since the election is still far away).
FG was in Government for a full term from 2016 without an overall majority (50 seats). It sort of worked out well for FF and probably even better with SF as the FF grass roots are not happy been subsumed into FG.
Huh?!!
Excellent post .....I
Another premonition of the demise of the government parties.
At last a bit of reality coming into the thread…..in my opinion
FG going sending Coveney to celebrate partition thus undermining Michael D. That SF lead gonna grow!
This is a good joke.
Ok 😂
No they won't. The current carry on of SF is driving a nice big wedge between them and the other parties. It’s not like they can stop, they have no alternative
Maybe, but they will want a heavy price for any deal as SF would arguably be the bigger party in government. Will they allow a rotating Taoiseach for example?
It also blows out of the water the idea of this cheap soundbite about power swaps, SF giving FF the keys to power.... again! Of the irony!
The talk will of course be a left-wing government with SF at the helm, but I don't think there will be enough left wing votes in the country to get a majority. SF + Labour + SD + Green + PBP/Sol..... would it get to 80 seats? Can you imagine the likes of Paul Murphy in power? Haha... good luck with that. It should be hilarious for all.
Grass roots Fianna Fail might prefer SF to Fine Gael bearing in mind how FG have treated FF in Government.
