A new general discussion thread for the new season that is upon us.
Raining here in South Leitrim after a cloudy day.
Anytime the cet for example has finished as high as the 16,s Celsius (not that there has been many) for Sept has always been followed by a mild winter.
Think the cet at this stage of the month is in the 18s. So its likely it will probably finish in the 16s by the end of the month. Not good.
Remember the nights have been very mild too so far this month . We may be used to getting warm weather in September which is nothing new, but it has been very warm for September so far overall, probably most notably the nights.
was just about to post the same.. forecast was for rain all day today - no rain since 11am - whats going on with ME? wrong yday too
I've been busy recently and havent had the time to watch Gav's winter forecast updates. I've heard it before that mild or warm Septembers can often be followed by mild winters. I find that a bit strange because it should be fairly normal to have a mild or warm September, especially the first half of the month which follows on from Summer. Our seasons have a habit of starting late and merging into the following season. Ive also heard that anticyclonic Octobers and mild, wet Novembers can help a cold winter too. I would probably consider sea surface temperatures a bigger player in what style of winter we get compared to how warm or cold a September is.
I am currently watching the latest 'GavsWeatherVids' installment and he is musing that those looking for a cold winter that the odds aren't great as the stats show that warm Septembers tend to be followed by mild winters. Whether this is a direct correlation between both, or just coincidental noise I don't know, but interesting nonetheless.
The forecast for down here today was quite a bit off. Constant rain for all day today (and tomorrow) was predicted, but it dried up in the afternoon. Not so bad after a very rainy morning. Let's see if the forecast of thundery rain plays out tomorrow morning.
The NH profile for this coming week would be most welcome in winter. Maybe we'll get another big snow this year.
We are running up to 3 degrees warmer this year compared to the same period last year, which still came in warmer than average.
2020:
2021
Data from Met Eireann.
11 October 2010 was one of the nicest days I have experienced. High teens and blue skies throughout the day was a beautiful sight to see in October. 12th was also another lovely day but there was a bit of a chill compared to the 11th as the onshore breeze picked up before it clouded over the following days. 10 October 2018 felt like a throwback to that day.
A mostly clear Ireland satellite image on 11 October 2010. It's rare enough to see our country clear as this in the middle of summer, never mind October.
Dungarvan (Waterford) did achieve 19.0C on 3 November 2010 too but that was a mild, cloudy and fairly unsettled period with outbreaks of rain for most areas so not very summery. Meanwhile, Clonroche (Wexford) got down to -11.5C 26 days later...
Fairly damp here in Meath and slate grey skies, cool too. Very similar to final days of August/first few days of September. Today may well be an isolated case of cooler than average temperatures and we should be back in the high teens from tomorrow.
Looking Northwest here in south Cavan.
Blue skies very very slowly making inroads, was a lovely fresh morning
Currently 15°c out.
I am fairly sure I remember that leading up to the November/December snows of 2010 we had a very warm day and 21C with unbroken sunshine around the 1st or 2nd of October 2010. I was in college at the time and remember everyone sitting out having their lunch on the greens around the campus and it was like a summers day. A few weeks later we were buried in snow.
Jaysus tis lashing here in Cork City - I didn't see that coming (hadn't seen WF)
Yep, temperatures in the high teens and low 20s by November usually require the foehn effect coming into play with an ideal wind direction such as a southerly/southwesterly for Dublin in this instance. The only other time that November recorded 20C in this country was 1 November 2015 when Dooks (Kerry) achieved 20.1C which became our national record.
The day Oneiric 3 is thinking of is 10 October 2018 which was true Indian Summer conditions as late September had recorded some unusually cold nights and plenty of grass frost. Here's a selection of places that achieved 20C or more that day:
I recall we got 20c + here in October about 2 or 3 years ago (can't remember exactly) as did a lot of places in the country.
Was lovely to be out in the (relatively) coolish air tonight and long may such nights continue.
Rathfarnham - right under the Dublin mountains, there was some fohn effect that day!
Looking back at my own records here in Durrow going back to 2008, my latest 20c+ was October 8th (2010), whilst my earliest 20c+ was March 28th (2012), a stretch of 5mths and 3wks between the two calendar dates.
I didn't think 20C was possible in November! In 1946 that must have been a direct hit African plume.
Today's models certainly have plenty of scope for low 20's at times over the next 2 to 3 weeks. My local station of Dunsany is currently running at 3C above average and with temperatures set to remain above average for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see where we end up by the end of the month. This will most definitely be a warmer than average September.
The latest 20C on record for Ireland is 20.0C at Rathfarnham Castle (Dublin) on 4 November 1946. The earliest 20C on record I cannot 100% confirm but the earliest I am aware of is 20.7C at Valentia (Kerry) on 19 March 2005.
The latest 20C for Meath for Gonzo's interest is 20.2C at Navan on 27 October 2005 whilst the earliest is 21.0C at Warrenstown on 25 March 2012 (Dunsany achieved 20.0C same day and Navan achieved 20.6C).
It gets increasingly difficult to get temperatures of 20C once we reach October. This mornings GFS is showing up a major heat plume over Ireland for the final week of September with temperatures possibly reaching 25C if it verified but it is very unlikely to verify being in the extended range of FI.
I picked an inland western station, Newport Furnace. June, July below average rainfall, August above. Drier than average summer. But plenty of rain fell. Same for Mt. Dillon.
https://www.met.ie/climate/available-data/monthly-data
The new moon coming in very good. Standing straight up. Good weather to come. My father swore by it and that generation. He saying was if you could hang your hat off it , sign of very bad weather to come , in other words if it’s lying on it’s back , no good 😊
I'm afraid you'd be jumping from the frying pan into the fire if you did move west. Rain seems to be becoming a thing of the past in these parts and if it is cooler weather you are after, then forget it. I honestly can't remember the last time I have felt in anyway cool. Even during other humid spells in other years, you'd get a bit of a breeze to help a little, but even those normal slight breezes have ceased to be. Heat and humidity aside, I don't recall such an extended period of stagnant, unchangeable, nothing weather in all of my born days.
This is generally true
June and July often the driest locally here
We've been lucky at my location to catch some wet thunderstorms this summer
But other than that minimal rain
This is probably going to be one of my last regular posts on this site for a while,I've given the new format a chance but it's a mare and a headache on the eyed
Its just a pain to navigate
I'll drop back if there's significant weather
East coast of Ireland, coastal south Dublin and north Wicklow, is my own area, and for sure this is becoming more believable. I haven't seen a good rain in weeks or months at this stage. Snow in the winter just gone never materialised either when it seemed to hit slightly more inland. It's like we are in a little dry, heat bubble here. I'm going to have to move west I think for some cooler, wetter weather.
Great growing conditions for the grass. Fair amount of rain last week and warm temperatures.
Lovely day today. Warm and some sunshine.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Ah stop 😂
I am of the growing belief that rain in the summer is almost as rare as snow in the winter.
While I agree with much of what you say Gonzo we will surely see 20c again this year and probably again this month. September 2021 will be in the top 5 warmest on record at least. Sure it was 27.9c at the start of the week! I'd say we will see 20c in September again and October maybe not November.
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