RainInSummer wrote: » Quick edit: Just in case you think I am shilling/pumping, I am in no way connected to the above user. I am happy to answer any questions on the uranium sector in general. Also happy to show mods any proof they need.
Green Penguin wrote: » What vehicle have ye invested through, YCA In UK or one of the actual miners?
Green Penguin wrote: » Thanks for that info, good starting point. In terms of researching a bit on the miners side of things any recommendations on good websites/analysts etc who are worth reading of any other resources to try and get a feel for whose who in the space?
So the sector has taken an absolute mauling the past month. An overblown news story about a xenon leak in a Chinese reactor seems to have kicked off an initial sell off that the sector never really recovered from (yet).
In terms of positive developments going into the future, Sprott's physical uranium trust should be dual listing tomorrow on the TSX in both Canadian and US dollars. U.U and U.UN.
This should bring an at the market, quick delivery uranium purchaser into an already supply constrained sector for the first time ever.
However, just to complicate things both the URA and HURA ETFs will be selling off their U.U holdings as the index they track won't have U.U on their books just yet. This is a timing thing more than anything else and will see any sales of Sprott units be balanced by purchases of the other uranium companies the ETFs hold as proceeds are transferred from one to the others.
The pick of the ETFs, URNM, is not selling and redistributing. They are holding their U.U
I'm still strongly convinced that the sector will be the star performer of this decade and I have to take this month's pain in the context that the stand out company in the last Uranium bull run saw seven pull backs averaging 40% before eventually posting gains of 104,000%.
I don't think that will happen again, but I do hope that among the speculative pickes I have I'll see a few multi baggers.
Enjoy the weather!
Quick update. Sprott's ATM is now active as of today.
Not that's it's helped prices much. The sector saw some brief respite before continuing it's slide.
My two largest holdings are down to +60% each. Not a bad complaint but I miss the heady days of having three two baggers out of five.
In terms of the near future, the summer is a traditional holiday time for fuel buyers and utilities so no real action recently, but the WNA symposium in September is often the herald of new contacting cycles by the utilities.
If anyone is considering getting in on this now is a good time to open a position.
Best of luck!
Apologies if this photo is for ants but posting on mobile. Sprott's ATM has had an immediate effect on the spot market, bringing the price up over 8% to a yearly high within 3 days of operating.
This is a market I've been reading, watching and dca'ing into for about a year. Very excited about it. Fantastic and very detailed threads on reddit about it. Was always surprised there wasn't as much/any coverage on it in here
Good stuff. Looking forward to the next few years I can tell you.
Win, lose or draw it'll be fun. Predicting and hoping for big win mind you!
I assume you're following all uranium folk on twitter? @yellowbull11 is very insightful. @quakes99 is another.
No. I don't do Twitter or any social media for that matter.
I'm aware of John Quakes though. I wholly think that 'he' is the product of a media team. Either that or he's on amphetamines. The account posts near 24/7. It's a phenomenal resource but it has to be a result of a team effort.
That said I check in on it every few days but as I don't have an account I have a fairly limited view of Twitter conversations.
Above graph is spot price of U3O8 (yellow cake), with the red arrow indicating when Sprotts's ATM became active. They've clearly had a huge effect and have driven the price to a five year high.
Just a note on the spot price, it tends to be fixated on as it's the only publicly available figure in an opaque market. The spot market accounts for only 20-25% of yellow cake traded, the vast majority is in long term (LT or just 'term') contracts. These are never revealed and are struck between the utility companies and miners. Mines are opened or put in to care and maintenance on the term price. Where spot price proves useful is as a yard stick in measuring how many Lbs of yellow cake there are available for utilities to buy up without having to enter in to term contracts with miners. It's also useful in perhaps providing confidence to retail traders.
And finally, the equities have started to run, we've seen several healthy days on the trot with most companies grabbing back some, if not all of the losses they experienced over the past two or so months.
Onwards and upwards, ad astra per aspera!
Another extremely strong day. Is it finally taking off? Ill keep dca'ing unless it goes parabolic. Whispers that it's starting to attract the attention of the reddit groups. Not sure if that's good or bad.
Yeah it's been a crazy week. I have four positions on the ASX, all posted double digit per cent gains three days running. Up 50% in a few days on some positions!
Pre market in the US looks good (even though we can't rule out traditional long weekend profit taking) and of course Canada doesn't do pre-market.
The Sprott effect in full swing? The $300m they raised for their initial ATM will be burned up soon at the rate they are buying all round them, but get this they're going for $500m next time and expect to take 3 days to get that before they are back buying with renewed vigour.
In terms of it taking off my own personal feeling is that it will never go genuinely parabolic, rather go up in steps, then pullback, then run up higher again. Long winded way of saying I'm not sure :)
Spot closes at $39. Up 6.5% today alone and highest since March 2015. Crazy week.
Not sure if allowed so mods feel free to delete if not, but came across this post early which is a good summary. Very high level but touches on most points of the hypothesis. Way more detail out there. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pg2pdy/uranium_start_of_a_commodity_supercycle/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
He's edited that post to include URNM, which he didn't have previously. He hadn't heard of it. Seeing as it's the best pure play U ETF out there that was a bit weird. Have to give him the benefit of the doubt though, it might not be available in his country.
There's also a few inaccuracies in the post, but the sentiment is overall correct.
Invest in miners. Front load the fuel cycle!
Can we invest in urnm in Ireland? Tried looking before on degiro and never found. I've been in a wide spread for a while. Dnn, dml, uuuu, nxe, fcu, ccj, Dyl. I think that's it
Just tried a buy order on IBKR.
No dice.
I'm in:
Bannerman
Denison
Energy Fuels
Baselode
Peninsula
Vimy
UEX
I'm conflicted as to whether I should keep investing each pay day, drop a large amount in this week or just sit back and let what I have in there ride.
Previously I expected the prices to rise over say 2+ years and there would be plenty of time to get cash in. However the rate at which sprott is gobbling up uranium coupled with WSB getting interested I think the time frame may be alot shorter.
It's what I was doing. DCA'ing up or down depending on the month at or near each pay day.
I'm holding a small bit in cash and want to try build that up a bit each month instead of doing any more buying. I'm one of the people who subscribe to the idea that there will be a correction in either Q4 this year or Q1 next year. So, yep, I'm dumb enough to try time the market.
Here's the rub, buy in now and maybe see the equities run hard for a period. Or do what I'm planning, hold and build a cash position for some event that may or may not come, and even if it does come, will it correct to the extent that you'd be buying at a discount to today's prices? Super hard one to call.
Just to re-iterate the point about there being no one single parabolic move, here's a screen cap of Energy Fuels, (UUUU) from the last bull run. It's a great example of the stomach churning volatility of the sector as well as the bananas gains you can make.
They are my current favourites and largest holding in terms of €€€. They now also have a REE element to their business which in my eyes makes them even more attractive again.
