only time will tell....and as we are not psychic..we will have to see
I really would have expected after that amount of time the US has been involved in the country the military + the government intelligence agencies would have a very good handle on capability of Afghan Army to carry on fighting the Taliban on their own and willingness/resolve within Afghan government to stand up to the Taliban.
From what has happened either they either got that wrong or people were not telling the truth somewhere along the line. edit: I think the first is most likely given all aspects of US government appear to be increasingly ineffective and failing - can their military be immune from that degeneration/decay even if the public still respect it, unlike other parts of the state/government?
As for all the 'hur-dur, who de 'Muricans gonna bomb next' spastics. That depends on who next decides to sponsor massive terrorist events on their soil, provides refuge for their perpetrators and then thumbs their nose at the victims of that terrorism by appointing the perpetrators as an honorary minister in their government as the Taliban did with Bin Laden.
Yes, it surprises me sometimes that what began all of it is often glossed over and Afghanistan is lumped together with Iraq war. I thought at the time if anything the US should have sent a larger force in to depose the Taliban and destroy Al Qaeda themselves . They should not have tried to use the anti-Taliban "rebels" as their proxies/paid fighters to do this as it was too important a job (IMO) after Sept. 11th. Bin Laden and the leaders escaped them anyway, and he wasn't killed till years later.
Most Americans don't care about Afghanistan and will be glad to be no longer involved.
While this was hopelessly botched by both Trump and Biden I don't think it will do Biden much harm electorally if at all.
His message will be he got them out of Afghanistan, no ifs or buts.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink, nor can you create a nation state out of a patchwork of ethnic groups that only act in their own self-interest.
Ironically, the Taliban probably have a much better chance at 'nation building' then the Americans, simply because they can and will do what the Americans can't, like go into tribal areas and decapitate it's tribal leaders and demolish regional cultures to replace them with their unified ideal under the banner of their pernicious brand of nationalistic Islam, thus forcing them into 'one (probably very dangerous) tribe. And even that will probably take a hundred years.
As for all the 'hur-dur, who de 'Muricans gonna bomb next' spastics. That depends on who next decides to sponsor massive terrorist events on their soil, provides refuge for their perpetrators and then thumbs their nose at the victims of that terrorism by appointing the perpetrators as an honorary minister in their government as the Taliban did with Bin Laden. I'm never not surprised by the willingness of some to treat nations as infantilized child nations which are never responsible for the disaster they directly invite. The Taliban invited disaster on Afghanistan and America obliged. Their only mistake was to stick around and try to rebuild what they blew up instead of walking away and telling them that 'if you do that again, the next time we'll just bomb you harder'. Perhaps this time the Taliban will learn to stay out of 'international affairs'.
It is shocking.
What happened to these renowned warlords Rashid Dostrum and Atta Noor?
Dostrum looks to have feathered his nest alright judging by the images from his palace, until the Taliban came round, minus the time he spent in hiding abroad.
But he was a fierce, well known and well armed warlord.
Questions need asking.
Maybe that's just it.
These larger than life, brutal warlords saw an opportunity to feather their nests and come away with a nice nest egg for themselves, on USA's dime.
It's the entirety of their conquest that is shocking too. They control regions that were out of their hands twenty years ago.
Its the speed at this happened has taken everyone by surprise, but it was inevitable the Taliban would take over again. Only idealists would believe you can turn savages with AK47's and Quran's in their hands.
So the US def would have no clue this would happen but the outcome was inevitable
Ide say behind closed doors you are not far off.
I don't believe any fella who claims to be all chaste and pius
How was the US suppose to know the Afghan forces would just give up? They armed them to the teeth and they put up zero fight. This notion that it was a sudden withdrawl is bollox too, the numbers of soldiers has been dwindling for years in Afghanistan, throughout Trumps administration. People up in arms about it, this outcome was inevitable.
Wonder what a Taliban party would be like. Something like this I'd say
Why has Afghanistan all of a sudden caught the imagination?
People have been dying there in their thousands for twenty years and it wasn't ever a worry for most people.
The taliban have come to power in a what can only be described as an extremely peacefully manner considering how quickly they have taken over yet everyone is up in arms about it.
The deaths in the last few days are not directly attributable to the taliban and they have agreed not to harbour terrorists anymore.
I don't think AK47s are that popular in the US but you are spot on with the rest of it.
The Americans will never change
Will they be able to resist having it in the (former) US embassy?
Realistically, when you see a bunch of stone age, backward thinking individuals, brandishing weaponry sitting in the Government chambers.... You just know there ain't no reasoning with them..
The Holy Book in one hand, the AK47 in the other.... Nah, p*ssing against the wind with this mob.
Give it a couple of months, all the other tribal lunatics will be high on religion, looking (begging) for Martyrdom missions against the infidels and the unbelievers... It will return to a cesspit, that's only function is to breed and provide a safe haven for terrorism.
A leopard can't change it's spots.
I'm sure the Taliban will have a big victory party planned for the 11th of September
they got hugs from the taliban before handing over their guns
It will be an easy reach for opponents of Biden, that the man who prides himself on his foreign policy screwed it up. Agree with you on the US voters in the long term. Imagine it will be about a month rather than a week. The twenty year anniversary of 9/11 and the contemporary situation in Afghanistan will get considerable media coverage. By the end of the September barring any major unexpected events the press will be onto the next story.
Is it just the Yanks that we should be banning? We've had military flights from Saudi Arabia and China land, both having questionable human rights records.
My point is it is nonsense having a go at the Afghan population for not resisting. People sitting on their couches on a phone who would immediately pee their pants if they were in a similar situation.
It doesn’t matter. In a week the US media will have forgotten about this and long term most American voters will be happy that they are no longer involved. Republicans will continue to try and use it as a stick to beat Biden with but there isn’t much political capital to made there. The American public doesn’t care about the plight of normal Afghans and they won’t have to take in any refugees.
Seemingly a helicopter that was involved in the fall of Saigon, was also involved in the fall of Kabul. Impressive testament to the designers and the maintenance crews over the years.
https://warisboring.com/from-saigon-to-kabul-the-tragically-ironic-tale-of-the-little-sea-knight-that-could/
You say that the tactics of the Afghan army are modelled after the US one, where air support provides a pivotal role, so why then would you omit the 8k air force personnel in your total afghan army figures? The only purpose would be to minimize the number of personnel.
Infact, the agreement is the US would continue to provide air support to the Afghan army after withdrawal.
Additionally, if we tally up the advanced weaponry the Afghan army had at their disposal, i'm sure it would exceed the wildest dreams of any insurgent group.
you are obviously very passionate about the topic. im speaking in general, easy to be in the Taliban when you can act without any resistance.
Sure in your world the USA should stay there forever minding them.
Currently the US federal apparatus is focused inwards there is significant disagreement within its domestic population on multiple issues (economic lock-downs, border control, debt, taxation) to start any more wars to "unify the population". Based on history they did not bother doing much for a decade after Vietnam (Grenada, Panama) before they launched the new world order on Iraq nearly 2 decades afterwards.
The US military even though it consumes much resources is not currently capable of fighting a major conflict, they can do some damage by standing offshore and firing missiles from a distance, but substantial boots on the ground is not possible. One of the reasons being the experience of the multiple tours forced on them during the second Iraq war and no war pay, you had to become a contractor to earn the big bucks. A substantial number of essential people like doctors left the military service. In addition they wore down much of their equipment over the course of 2 decades. Politically the Pentagon is more focused on being woke while the money keeps on rolling in.
That Taliban come from that culture that ‘doesn’t have a fight in them’.
they were trained for 20 years, given millions in cash and weapons. surely the time for them to stand on their own 2 feet? some cultures just haven't got the fight in them. that's why they get ruled.
Course there are consequences. same as there are consequences of running away and jumping on the wheels of a military plane as its about to take off.
Somalia.
The Sudans and Venezuela.
It makes perfect sense Afghanistan is a patchwork of different ethnic communities, and their only loyalty is to their clans and then their ethnic group. The "leadership" structure inserted by the US were in it for dollars, backed up by US military fire power and paid for by borrowing dollars (i.e. reducing future consumption of anyone who uses the dollar and currencies tied to it). The leaders no power outside areas close to US military bases. Removing the dollars and the US military and they collapsed like a house of cards and all the ethnic groups that make up the army retreat to their enclaves, the concept of defending corrupt state leaders when you can't feed your family is not very appealing.
I was wondering this yesterday. Struck me after that they might direct more energy and money into domestic surveillance and control programs. Lots of money to be made selling military equipment to police departments in the land of the free.
Then there's this:
Over half of Americans believe the US is in the midst of a cold civil war, according to a post-election flash poll from Edelman, the largest public relations firm in the world.
And this:
A groundbreaking “Back-to-Normal Barometer” survey for the first time finds 61% of Americans agree with the concern that the U.S. could be on the verge of another Civil War [...] Within the 61% of Americans who believe that the U.S. could be on the verge of another Civil War, 40% strongly agree and 21% somewhat agree. Additionally, 16% somewhat disagree and 23% strongly disagree.
“This is the single most frightening poll result I’ve ever been associated with,” said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, one of the three firms—along with the Sports and Leisure Research Group and ROKK Solutions—that conducted the survey.
The two above don't tell me that civil war is likely, but it tells me that the public are being led in that direction. The media is extremely fractious. The media is in cahoots with the MIC. Therefore, it's safe to conclude that stirring internal division is part of whatever psyop is being played on the U.S. public. (It may just be part of an ongoing 'divide and conquer' strategy to keep people bickering with each other instead of combining efforts.)
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