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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Graham

Continued from here

Mod Warning

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory/vacancy figures has been done to death please take that topic to a new thread.

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Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117664630#Comment_117664630

No real surprise here seeing as Mortgage applications in the US dropped 25% year on year in June and no of building permits is way down on prior periods as the cost of building has gone up and if consumers reject the new high prices then new properties won't be built and you will end up in a situation where you have a long period with nothing being built and all the problems that come with it...

Seeds2098

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117667809#Comment_117667809

Its not quite a simple as that. Investors are also showing much less interest in the US.

I am wondering what portion of properties in Ireland are investor properties. Just over the last month or so I know two people with investment properties who are looking to sell up( small time landlords who own an additional property).

I wonder if we could see a lot of institutional investors jump ship on Ireland at some point. At some point government may be forced to make things much more difficult for them, and the higher prices go the more pressure there is.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117667887#Comment_117667887

Where did you see that the investors are loosing interest in the US housing market? Do you have a link as I haven't seen any articles on it.

Non-Occupiers which would would include mainly Investors & Government accounted for 14% of all transactions from June 2020 to May 2021.

Institutional investors will jump ship at some point in time when they can get a better return on other assets.... But until interest rate rise significantly this is not going to happen unless they are forced into a fire sale due to something like a liquidity crisis.

Timing belt

There is a lot of talk about new supply coming online but if you look at the planning permission that has been granted for Houses (I have excluded apartments) then you can see that these are still at historical lows which would suggest that we won't see much of an increase in houses in the coming years.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668030#Comment_117668030

I was chatting with a developer yesterday about this and an estate they're building at the moment is booked as one planning permission application.

During the Bertie bubble it felt like everyone with a field was getting planning permission for one offs that they'd try to flip later. The credit tap is turned off now for that kind of frenzy.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668030#Comment_117668030

It's a good point, backed by data.

I agree, we won't see major increase of supply of houses in next 2 years. But there could be different case with apartments. If there is good conditions for developers, there could be a fairly good increase of supplies of apartments (although maybe not for open sale).

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117664630#Comment_117664630

I think that is just a reversal of the recent price increase in construction materials costs due to the supply chain getting unstuck and so prices falling back to their more usual levels.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117663728#Comment_117663728

Actually, the Gulf stream probably started slowing at least 150 years ago and has slowed a further 15% since the 1950's. The Earth's temperature usually rises very rapidly just prior to the onset of an ice age and that's what I think is happening now. Of course all the previous ice ages were caused by anthropogenic CO2, so keep buying those EV's and paying those carbon taxes.

Of course this all good news for house prices in Cork and coastal house prices as sea levels will fall considerably and the Maldives will be saved.

L1011

Conspiracy Theories forum is the one below this one thanks.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117664630#Comment_117664630

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-home-prices-surge-17-fastest-17-years-79087343

WASHINGTON -- Prices for U.S. homes rose faster in May than they have in 17 years as surging demand for housing outstripped the supply.

Some huge increases in recent months. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? I'd imagine we are starting to see affordability ceilings kicking in.

Aguce

Does anyone thinks that Irelands property prices could go by 18 property cycle trajectory? I'm feeling sad that I could be waiting for 9 years to buy a house.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117672055#Comment_117672055

Why would you wait for 9 years?

According to that graph, prices are going to continue to rise for the next 6/7 years, and even when they crash, will still be more expensive than they are right now.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668111#Comment_117668111

This is the breakdown of planning permission granted (for houses only) which shows the total floor area which would take into account one planning permission being for multiple houses. (source CSO BHQ05 - Planning Permissions Granted for New Houses and Apartments)

Based on this there will be no major supply of new houses coming online anytime soon.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117672220#Comment_117672220

That's interesting. Just wondering if you're at all familiar with the BCMS commencement data and how you might reconcile the two? gov.ie - Construction Activity Statistics (www.gov.ie)

It shows that there was nearly 5k residential units started each MONTH in April and May. Both April and May are nearly double the next highest month in the previous 10 years. Obviously there's an element of catch up going on. But even with essentially a shutdown in February and March, 2021 YTD commencements are 20% above 2019 at the same time which was the previous post crash peak? Will be interesting to see if June is another massive month or will it very quickly fall back to normal levels of activity.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117672339#Comment_117672339

I was just looking at planning for new houses which excludes apartments.

The planning Granted for apartments may explain the difference

80sDiesel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117665979#Comment_117665979

Was talking to my brother in California and he was telling me the Irish there are starting to express an interest in relocating back to Ireland because of the recent heatwaves there.

Marius34

looking at BPFI mortgage approval report, it's out for the month of June. I have aggregated over first half of a year data. Not only volumes of approvals were growing strong, but mortgage amount as well.

FTB Volume:

2019 H1 - 12,252

2020 H1 - 8,371

2021 H1 - 13,796

FTB average Value:

2019 H1 - 230K

2020 H1 - 239K

2021 H1 - 249K

mcsean2163

Thoroughly depressed by the market now. Our dream home went to a cash buyer despite our higher bid. The most expensive country in the EU in which to buy a house 🤯🤯😣😣😨😨. Might be better to give up house hunting, stop saving and live life.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117678265#Comment_117678265

Actually we are about mid table when it comes to affordability within the OCED. Price increases are happening all over the globe

https://data.oecd.org/price/housing-prices.htm

MacronvFrugals

House-building bounces back with completions at pre-Covid levels

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-building-bounces-back-with-completions-at-pre-covid-levels-1.4633888

rino87

Hi, long time lurker first time poster in this thread.

So question for you guys... Do you see help to buy being curtailed or extended in the "housing for all" scheme/next budget, and what that might mean to the market. Can anyone see it ever being extended to 2nd hand homes (at maybe 5%, and keep new builds at 10%)

Personally we're looking at waiting it out until the housing for all plan/next budget are known....

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117680872#Comment_117680872

I see the Help to buy being extended but don't see it applying to 2nd hand homes as it will not help increase supply.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117680872#Comment_117680872

I believe the main focus will be to increase new build supply output, in particular for social/affordable housing. Current Help 2 Buy likely extended or somehow integrated with Housing for all. But don't think it will apply for 2nd hand homes.

cruizer101

Help to Buy is a misnomer.

It should really be called Help increase developers profits scheme, as any increase in purchasing power just got added to the price.

I understand the motivation behind it was to encourage developers to build but I just wish they had of been more honest about it.

Instead of giving money to ftb's to give to the developer why not just use funds to provide direct incentives to developers.

Can't see it ever applying to second hand homes, and if it does expect to see a jump in prices that will eat most of it anyway.

Timing belt

The economic assumptions on property that Ulster Bank have used in their half year results are as follows:

(source: natwest-group-h1-company-announcement.pdf (natwestgroup.com) page 20)

Looks like they expect house price growth to slow from 2022/23 onwards.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117681821#Comment_117681821

In their base case scenario it look that they expect stable increase 3.3-3.6% a year over next 4 years. But looking at the current situation, probably we are on Upside scenario already.

Eclectic Econometrics

I have a question for you guys.

One of the constant themes I read on here, this thread and others, is the difficulty lenders face in repossessing a home. I read this article (Fcuk me I can't post links again) Google "Start Mortgages gets possession order for family home over €60,000 debt" and was wondering if every repossession is this lengthy?

Even after all this time the judge has stated some form of reconciliation may be possible and it will probably take another 2 years to get possession of the home! Am I reading any of this wrong?

In the UK you will lose your home in a year, and in most cases likelier quicker than that.

For my school work experience I spent 2 weeks at a branch of Bradford and Bingley. Literally the first job they had me do was to put repossession threat letters into envelopes. Welcome to banking!

cnocbui

Home reposessions in Ireland are essentialy not allowed. This has the effect of making banks terrified to lend, causing them to be slow and super cautious. Great Irish government policy aimed at reducing economic activity and clogging up the works and having costs passed on from dead beats to good people.

fine_12345

A lot of what I hear on the topic of repossession tends to be your typical conservative welfare queens hate mongering.

If you go into arrears frankly it’s good if we have laws that force banks into making something work over just taking your house and basically destroying you financially. Frankly that would probably be cheaper for taxpayers in the long run also if you’re really worried about such things.

There seems to be this ridiculous perception that reposing homes will free them up for good hard working people, and that it will also lower interest rates. The former is imo an abhorrent classist point of view, that ignores the reality of poverty and blames victims in general (do you think everyone in arrears just decided they plain old didn’t feel like working anymore?). I’ve yet to see any compelling evidence for the latter.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683693#Comment_117683693

Most people who get repossessed in this country are not poor.

Poor people cant afford mortgages for the most part.