Ah yes....more fantasy....tell us which member of saoradh are drug dealers😅......wee bit like you goys "army council" conspiracy theory that deosnt stand up to scrutiny
I feel without a border poll and everyday its delayed,strentghens their reading of situation politically....though i suspect their next wave wont be bombing,it will be highly disruptive electronic attacks like the ransom recent attack on irish health service
Cyber attacks from dissidents?? That's hilarious 🤣
Gudgin took Fitzgerald figures and came to a conclusion that wasn't supported by the facts. That's why Gudgin's work has been dismissed as propoganda.
Fitzgerald figure and conclusions on the other hand have not been dismissed and remain valid.
Francie, point me in the direction of studies you approve of and I'll happily discuss them with you.
You were the one to mention it. I merely said and showed through a link that it is not a cut and dried thing and that the figures and stats can be slanted depending on what your agenda bias is.
Your bias leads you to accept Fitzgerald as the definite study, as the link shows there are other views.
My apologies I thought you were suggesting that Fitzgerald paper had been discredited like Gudgin.
Fitzgerald's is currently the definite study. If you believe otherwise link to what you think is the definite study.
See the link.
The link doesn't provide any alternative to Fitzgerald study. It's a critique of Gudgin's.
Who is the author of what you believe to be the definite paper? That'll be enough for me to find it on Google.
If you don't know of a better paper just say so.
Do you read links when they are provided.
I parsed it by saying you can slant your study based on your bias. Fitzgerald's slant was 'productivity', but if you read the link you would have seen this.
Even though this metric favours the Republic, there is no agreed measure of living standards in the economic literature. Alongside income, there are multiple factors that drive a society’s relative prosperity – economic mobility, educational provision, employment opportunities, health services, poverty rates.
Jaysus Francie earlier today i said the consensus was that the standard of living is higher in NI but the extent is dependent on the metric used!
Why is Fitzgerald paper not the definite paper on the cost? And obviously if you believe it's not you have an alternative in mind. All i want is a link so I can have a read?
Here you go.
People may have already seen this paper but it provides a good comparison on certain measures of standards of living, North and South:
Between now and a border poll...might I advise that you call nothing 'definitive'. Because nothing I have seen is. All studies have their weaknesses and strengths.
I suspect the electorate like myself will digest them all and then make their own minds up, much the same as they do in any referendum.
Ok so you don't have an alternative paper to Fitzgerald. Could you not of just said that from the beginning?
What are the flaws in his research that mean i should not view it as definitive ie the best?
Francie , based on what you've read to date and the strengths and weaknesses you have observed in the studies what is a fair range on the cost?
Whether we fund it or the EU/UK fund it the cost is the same.
Are you happy with Doyle's opinion that the subvention is 2.5 bn and requires a 5% tax increase if we have to pay it ourselves?
Is Fitzgerald's claim that 3bn would be required to increase SW in NI to our levels fair? I'll assume as a left leaning voter you wouldn't want welfare decreased in a new Ireland.
I'm not asking you to justify paying for any of these things as that is your subjective opinion just whether the figures put out there are reasonable based on the data.
😁😁 like blanch, you put words in my mouth and then criticise me. Gas debating technique.
I did not say anything about alternatives.
You made a claim and I said it had been challenged.
Your posting a lot while saying very little. Is that the right post just to save time?
Missed this with the new boards set up.
Here is Fitzgerald reply
And here is their reply back.
I think how long Scottish independence takes will have a significant impact on the timescale in terms of Irish reunification as well.
The annoyance would be at the permanent ending of their longing for the days of their old apartheid statelet and supremacy over those who oppose such.
At least we are focused on actual costs now which is progress. However, I find it alarming that there is still so much uncertainty and debate about the potential bill. Generally speaking, such projects rarely come in under budget.
If SF are in the next Irish govt it will be interesting to see what happens to their support. They’ll have to disappoint some people.
Personally think it's a tactical miss step by SF avoiding discussing the total cost of unification. They continue to push the narrative that it's all about the subvention.
2.5bn subvention equates to a 5% tax increase according to the pro Unification academic Doyle.
Fitzgerald has a figure of 3bn to increase welfare rates in NI to the Republic level. So that is another 5%.
10% tax increases before we even get to PS wages in NI. Must look that up too.
Then we have to increase inward investment in NI to 20% of GDP to match the Republic. This part is essential to improving NI economy as per the Hubner report. Must look that up too.
Doherty is meant to be one of the better members yet claims we can afford a UI because the Republic will gain 35bn over 8 years🤣!
Hopefully Fitzgerald will cover it in his forthcoming paper but for the craic I had a look at the figures on PS pay.
Median wage in Ireland for PS workers is 47k. In Northern Ireland it's 25k sterling or 30k euro.
There are 300,000 PS workers in NI. To have the same median as the Republic would cost 5bn.
I know it's a simplistic approach with lots of assumption. Looking forward to the experts opinion on this aspect of the cost of unification.
Why is Scottish independence significant for Norther Ireland?
I just don't get the logic. If the Scots leave the Unionists will suddenly decide they want to be part of the Republic.
There won't be a 'bill'.
There will be a new country which will like this one, attempt to pay it's way. Ups and downs, slings and arrows etc etc and on we will go.
From your own article:
"There is, however, no real basis for Gudgin’s claim that living standards are 20 per cent higher in the North. It appears to be driven, not by a consideration of the existing data points we have, but by his own pro-Brexit politics."
I simply think that Scottish independence will act as another key catalyst towards Irish reunification as it will IMHO signal the beginning of the breakup of the UK.
Yes, I'd agree with that too.
It certainly opens up the possibilities. For Northern Ireland, the options become much greater if that happens.
But why?
A hardcore unionist would prefer any option but Unification. I would assume they would take A United Kingdom of just england and NI over the Republic. I doubt they give would give a damn if the Welsh left too.
I would hope the remainder would judge unfication on it's own merits rather than sure if the Scot's did it we might as well do it too .
Francie, are you seriously saying that because it's a new country we can't compare it to what we used to spend when it was the 26 counties?
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