Opinion polls have 25% of Catholics in favour of staying in the UK. 51 % Catholics in the census won't sway a thing.
It's the closest it's ever been due to Brexit and that explains the sudden interest by FG/FF. If the downward trend continues due to the protocol they'll lose interest again.Currently less than a 50/50 chance of success and with the likely result being a rejection they would have to wait another 7 years for another go. Which means still having some form of protocol.
Without a swing in the opinion polls a referendum won't happen.
Funny, I'm sure I saw a poll that had majorities in both jurisdictions wanting a referendum.
Any fool will tell you that a majority is unlikely to appear in favour of a motion until a plan and proposal is made.
Demographically speaking a majority catholic population will deliver a border poll
Yous can bury your head in sand and point at random opioion polls all yous want,time and demographics has run out on this occupation
FG (like all liberials) are not a campaigning party,they prefer to jump aboard stuff effectively over the line to bask in positive publicity (gay marraige/abortion)....they have jumped both feet on this train,its in the bag lad
What is this "rush" you're talking about? Completely the opposite: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40249373.html
The only people in a rush are SF as they will be under pressure from the Army Council. It's SF who are in a rush "setting a date for a marriage before you've had a courtship".
No time like the present...theres a majority catholic now,time to reunify
Every day delayed,is a day that furthers strenthens dissidents campaign,as democracy blocked is justification enough for political violence.....i know liberials dislike democracy,need only see their carryon around brexit,but its the only viable show in town
I for one am excited to see this Poll you're referring to - it doesn't really count though when you're only polling SF members in both jurisdictions 😁.
When do you think we'll see SF come up with a plan and a proposal? In particular, I'd like to see how they propose to fund it along with all the other populist free stuff they are promising.
Why would a religious percentage deliver a border poll? Is that the criteria the SoS will use?
It does not automatically follow that being Catholic implies wanting to change the status quo. The grass isn't really that greener here in the free state.
Same applies to being prod....but its like a 97% corrolation........its openly believed the british have tipped off coveney as regards it from intial census anlysis
Time has run out on partition,its now an extremist position with no political home to oppose unity in the free state.
The Irish government of the day will be making the proposal.
All parties in the state are pro UI.
It isnt up to single political parties to make a proposal. If they do you can with confidence, ignore it.
It is the old sectarian headcount trick, which SF pretend they have abandoned.
Which is fine but doesn't explain why the UK would push for a once in 7 year event while opinion polls show there is a less than 50/50 chance of success .
Only a UI solves problems for the EU and UK not a border poll.
Foolish to think they'll ignore opinion polls and risk having their hands tied for 7 years.
False Equivalence. There's no evidence that dissidents' campaigns are being strengthened. That's just rubbish, but go ahead and prove me wrong.
Same doesn't apply to "Prods"
Only 7% of Prodestant would vote for a UI. 25% of Catholics want to remain in the UK.
With those figures the census would need to show a over 60% Catholics majority to compensate for the significant minority of Catholics who want to remain in the UK.
Why should the Irish government of the day make a proposal now? They haven't since 1922. So what has changed that makes it a valid proposition now?
SF is the one pushing it - if they have the confidence then let them, it's not up to the other political parties to make a proposal because they represent people who don't share your views - you're confusing Ireland with Cuba. The rest of us say it isn't the right time yet. No amount of childish partitionist name-calling is going to change the simple fact that many SF supporters in the North like that they can buy and drive BMWs and Audis now, whereas, in unification, they'll have to make do with a Ford focus as part of the south.
Except there is?
If yous block democracy,(which is essential your viewpoint to demand no border poll be held).....what other alternative is there,and how can dissidents be condemned in such an atmosphere?
7% of prods is enough.....it will take less than 1 in 40 to tip the scales
Time has to come to reunify our country imo,the numbers are there to deliver it now,
Jesus this is pure desperation....lads have convinced emselves bmws and audis are gonna be banned in a utd ireland🤣
You guys are gonna be laughed outta it at any referendum debate....snigger
With a quarter of Catholics preferring staying in the UK you have a while yet before the demographics are in your favour.
I suspect the poster is referring to the higher standard of living in NI compared to the Republic and it likely dropping in the event of a UI.
That myth: that the standard of living is higher in the north has been challenged. Google it.
I thought the scale of the difference depends on what you in include as part of the metric but that either way it's still higher in the North.
I'll have a Google but for clarity i'm only referring to those in employment. I'm assuming the overall standard of living is higher in the Republic due to lower levels of unemployment.
Except theres not been a referendum to support yous views
But hay tell us some more why you demand no referendum and democracy blocked.😁
Had a google. You are confusing 2 different pieces of research.
The Gudgin paper that claims that it currently stands at 20% due to lower house prices in the North has been dismissed as biased due to lack of evidence and him being an advisor to Trimble .
Fitzgerald's paper predicts up to a 20% gap if a UI just involves paying the subvention and having economic partition on the island instead.
Fitzgerald paper hasn't been exposed as a myth just Gudgin's
Your forgetting that the 2 countries democratically agreed that a referendum would only take place if "likely to pass".
Without any evidence to date that a referendum would be successful not having one is the correct position as per the GFA.
To my eyes its likely it'll pass
Easy way for one of us to be proven right or wrong,hold it
Looks to me,yous are scared to be found out and using any excuses (not as retarded a brainfart,as thinking audi and bmw sales would be banned tbf😁,i struggle to take you guys seriously after that particular drool).....i seen enough to say it'll pass and its obvious fg have too
Time has run out on british rule here
You do realise I have no say whether one takes place. It's entirely up to SF employers up North. The fact that one hasn't taken place is entirely inline with the GFA all the same.
Seems to me either you can support calls for or you dont
Hiding and skirting from fact yous have a poor relationship with democracy (though please no bmw bannings from you goys😂)
Looks to me demographically the time has come to hold on,just get on with it imo,every day without holding one,only strengthens and reenforces what saoradh are saying imo
Can't see the drug dealers of Saoradh getting much support.
Gudgin based his work on Fitzgerald's report apparently.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629
Like many things this is a subject that you can find evidence for depending on your bias and the agenda you wish to promote.
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