Following on from
this thread
Please remain civil or posting privileges will be removed
27% of a 35ish % turnout, no covid and a Friday election will be a different animal altogether, dont think Geoghan will stand again, ego took a hit
This is a creepy post.
I don't believe Vradakar is corrupt
I also don't believe stating some facts about him above as I did equates to 'cheer leading ' as you put it
Hes corrupt though?
Do you not feel foolish cheerleading for him?
Wee bit like when we were all goaded into.accepting bertie ahearn as taoiseach in 07 and noone needs reminding how that particular line of partisanship ended
His anyslis isnt wrong in highlighting that the present high profile fg members are alienating their tradional heartlands across the state and could leave it in position of poor next generation canditdates....that geoghan chap is the eptimoe of corporate blandness,and their apparent prototype going forward,and that simply deosnt sell outside the m50
I think, you're over egging the pie
Its the FF seat gone there next election not FG and its to labour
As for Vradakar, I'd cool the obsession too if I were you, it's not healthy
He's going to be Taoiseach at the end of next year for another 2 years whether you like it or not
If he chooses to not retire at the next election, he's on record as not wanting to be in politics at 50
On the basis of that, Vradakar haters like yourself are at nothing, you're achieving nothing as regards him, He's the boss
Would you not be concerned that they poured extra-ordinary resourses into this particular by-election and come up significantly short?.....and the wider term imlications of this should alarm bells ringing
These same resources wont be there for a general election and could see his 1st pref fall by upto 50% (closer to 33% imo,but not knowinh finer points on local issues il say nomore)
He will likely get a seat,but this isnt the success yous imagine,if they poll 26% in a election there and fail to land two seats,their director of elections would have qs to answer surely??
How about you look at the Labour FPV% in 2020 - 7.9% and then explain why another Labour candidate destroyed her FG rival with 30% FPV and 5000 transfers despite the fact that FG ran a major campaign to retain their seat.
2016 = 2 seats from 4
2020 = 1 seats from 4
2021 = 0 seats from 4
The only thing you can guarantee is heartburn at the next election 😙
First count? Utterly delusional Blanch.
If you think you've seen the last of O'Connell in DBS you need to fix yourself a strong coffee.
No, I am not retreating. FG, with 26.8% are guaranteed a seat in a general election. In fact, that is the only thing you can take forward from this.
Kate has burned her bridges, if there is a second candidate for FG (a big if), it won't be her.
Geoghegan, if he is the only candidate, is guaranteed a seat, probably on the first count.
You made the claim that his 26 percent 1st pref will by some dint of miracle translate to a GE. You're retreating to fourth seat now. Most likely scenario: Kate and him are on the ticket - she'll take the FG seat if there's one to be had and James isn't even at the races in a GE. That's cold hard electoral reality instead of the fantasy land where he's pulling Healy Rae like numbers in a constituency stacked with high-profile names.
Lads, lads, lads, the solid FG vote turned out for him, that was all he got, but it is more than enough. Halve his vote and he would still be in for the fourth seat. Lose one-quarter of his vote and he is still there on the first count.
The narrative of a FG disaster is wrong.
And that was with all the big boys or maybe I should use Kates description "choirboys" out in force to campaign for him, which lets face it there is no way that the Minister for Finance is going to be standing in the middle of the road holding a sign for him during a General Election.
It doesn't take much to upset FG these days. They are very touchy, don't even dare mention childrens shoes. This was a by-election where all the big names were out to canvass for him, even had the minister for Finance parading himself in the middle of the road and he still couldn't get elected. Can you imagine what it would be like the Geoghegan in a General Election, weere he wouldn't have the likes of Minister of Finance or Varadkar or Coveney going out to canvass for him.
There isn't even an alternative universe where Geoghegan secures 26% of first preferences in a general election with a fully stacked ballot.
You're speaking out both sides of your mouth here - saying that a win wasn't on the cards because it's a by-election and special rules apply, but that a 26 percent 1st pref with all the resources of a desperate FG party behind him will magically translate to a general election. 26 percent 1st pref is Michael Lowry / Healy Rae in a GE territory. Come off of it.
They have 0 now and unless they get a better candidate than little trust fund Jimmy they won't be getting one in the next election either.
FG don't have two seats in the constituency!!!
26.8% of the vote were FG are the strongest party. Lets face it he was helped by FF and Green putting up pathetic candidates for election. It was set up for Geoghegan to win and he couldn't do it. If he does run in a general election hopefully he will cost FG both seats.
While the Una Mullaly article drove FG nuts, there is a massive hulking grain of truth in it. Fine Gael's clarion call is merit yadda yadda, best and brightest etc. That's what they've been selling themselves as for years even if it's BS. What they offered up was a barrister that never practiced who did a string of sweetheart internships sorted for him by familial contacts; swiftly followed by a career in tobacco lobbying; and had to come clean mumsy and daddykins sorted him with a house via a trust fund.
Nothing about that is merit. They were really pushing the boundaries of good taste and the image of their party offering that up to the electorate. They even thought a nod and a wink to the wealthy of the constituency ("cmon he's just like us") would win the day.
He got 26.8% of the vote. That would elect him on the first count in a general election. Some people really don't seem to understand the mathematical differences between by-elections and multi-seat elections.
This sort of nonsense unrelated to reality and truth does the site a disservice.
This constituency was Dublin South-East in 2002. FG didn't get a seat. That was only five elections ago. They got 10.8%, in 2007 they got 18.6%. Even in 2016, they got 30.1% and Geoghegan is only down 5% on that in a by-election where he was an inanimate carbon rod (as described on here) competing against two national figures in Bacik and Boylan.
You wishful thinking on the demise of FG is beyond laughable.
Where you getting Geoghegan might win a seat. The guy is done for. He was destroyed during the election destroyed. The voice of the renter or whatever he was championing himself as. He is a lame duck.
"It's a by-election"
Is this some article of faith that FG repeat to themselves when they can't win a seat in ground-zero FG-land?
This isn't a bellwether like the old Tipperary North. Zero FG seats in this constituency is like the Republicans losing Texas.
We're witnessing the long goodbye of Varadkar and he's left the party in pretty bad shape. He tried to pull an empty Macronist stunt on the party and overpromoted and encouraged the louthmouth wing of the movement. The old guard of the Kenny years will be more or less gone by the time the next election is called, and all that will be left is a phalanx of empty candidates that cut their political teeth making stupid social media content and running negative campaigns against an imaginary bogeyman.
The break has done you good Blanch. 2 seat possibility when you are currently 0 🤩
Kate wouldn't have won that seat. It was a by-election.
In the longer term, Geoghegan/O'Connell might work as a two-seat possibility, picking up votes from different types of voters, and collecting transfers from different types of parties. On a good day, they could take the last two seats, on a bad day, they would fight each other for the last seat.
You still haven't answered the question in what universe does 26.8% for a single candidate not guarantee a seat on the first count in a four-seat constituency? So why should FG be worried about that?
Kate absolutely would have performed far better than Geoghegan in first preferences and also would have picked up way more transfers.
The only people not worried in FG are the ten or so senior TDs heading for retirement who won't be standing. Who will stand in their stead? The YFG superbrat Twitter army? The next election is an extremely challenging one for FG.
Make no mistake, it was a disaster. Every FG TD will feel nervous about his/her re-election prospects and transfer abilities.
Dublin Bay South with 0 FG TDs. FG heartland. What would Garrett say? They had 2 seats here just 5 years ago.
In a constituency where they didn't expect to figure. But maybe discuss them in their own thread.
The by-election was a disaster for the governing parties. FF achieves 4%, the Greens (did they lose their deposit?) and FG losing a huge lead in the polls, in a seat that was considered one of, if not the, safest seat they have.
*If you wish to discuss the next GE, open a thead?
Again, which bit of 26.2% doesn't get FG a seat in a four-seater?
We all know who is deflecting here. It was the worst of times for the government, under attack from all sides on Covid, economic worries everywhere, and the main opposition party LOSES votes!!!
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