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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

alchemist33

I've seen two main options put forward on this forum, (1) that he'll remain a political force until the 2024 primaries start up and the Republicans have to take him seriously or (2) that he'll be so mired in litigation that he'll have no time for politics.

There are of course other options for the next 4 years - prison, exile, death or ill-health (he isn't young and he's been under stress), no politics but a business success, emperor. But it'd be an interesting exercise for people to lay their cards on the table now and make their predictions.

Personally I think his political influence will die quickly after the Capitol fiasco but someone else will emerge in 2 years, once the memories have waned, to be the standard-bearer for the QAnon wing.

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Cody montana

In fairness, who doesn’t love free stuff?
Pens, cleaning samples, ferrari’s.

Overheal

Cody montana wrote: »

In fairness, who doesn’t love free stuff?
Pens, cleaning samples, ferrari’s.

Who doesn't love free pens?

trump-appears-to-mock-pelosi-by-handing-out-pens-during-usmca-signing.jpg

Overheal

Tucker Carlson has been telling people he didn't vote for Donald Trump. Instead, he has been indicating he voted for Kanye West.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-has-reportedly-been-telling-people-he-voted-for-kanye-in-the-2020-election/

Wondering how quickly MAGA will fall out with their favorite white supremacist with an entertainment variety show on a news channel.

mcmoustache

notobtuse wrote: »

I think it is a common occurrence among most closely held corporations. I have no problem with them going after Trump if they go after the other corporations in their jurisdiction for the same thing. But to target the Trump organization because the Manhattan DA hates Trump with a passion and seemingly has put so much of his offices time and effort targeting him in order to get him any way possible is just wrong.

Most do a better job of hiding their criming. That's the main difference. In this particular case, they kept spreadsheets of their off-the-books compensation and that was used to offset the on-the-books compensation.

You can't be taking notes in a criminal conspiracy.

Tell me how

mcmoustache wrote: »

Most do a better job of hiding their criming. That's the main difference. In this particular case, they kept spreadsheets of their off-the-books compensation and that was used to offset the on-the-books compensation.

You can't be taking notes in a criminal conspiracy.

NSFW

Brilliant show.

Overheal

what show is that

Penn

Overheal wrote: »

what show is that

The Wire. One of the best of all time. Coincidentally I'm in the middle of about my 5th or 6th rewatch

Later seasons actually deal a lot with local politics and the effects it has on the local population.

Overheal

Penn wrote: »

The Wire. One of the best of all time. Coincidentally I'm in the middle of about my 5th or 6th rewatch

Later seasons actually deal a lot with local politics and the effects it has on the local population.

That's the millionth recommendation I've seen for the Wire. The first reccomender was an old college room mate whom I found to be obscenely obnoxious; I discounted his recommendation and mocked what I saw in the living room as the trope of "Okay move in move in!" every episode or other episode, which was not denied, and explosions for limited reason :pac: but yeah I understand the series overall is a landmark film makers thesis on policing in Baltimore.

Penn

Overheal wrote: »

That's the millionth recommendation I've seen for the Wire. The first reccomender was an old college room mate whom I found to be obscenely obnoxious; I discounted his recommendation and mocked what I saw in the living room as the trope of "Okay move in move in!" every episode or other episode, which was not denied, and explosions for limited reason :pac: but yeah I understand the series overall is a landmark film makers thesis on policing in Baltimore.

Without turning this into the TV forum, I'd just say you have bad timing with what you saw. I can barely think of any explosions in the show, and while there's the occasional police raid or gang shootout, it's far more procedural and slow, searching for the breadcrumbs to make a case that'd stand up in court. And it's more about the city as a whole rather than policing, each season introduces characters and stories from different parts of the city; Dock workers, politicians, schools, journalists. Its all about the institutions as a whole and how bureaucracy and corruption in those institutions shape the city and affect the lives of those in it.

It loses the run of itself a little in the final season, but as a whole, it's so far above almost everything else.

Tell me how

Overheal wrote: »

That's the millionth recommendation I've seen for the Wire. The first reccomender was an old college room mate whom I found to be obscenely obnoxious; I discounted his recommendation and mocked what I saw in the living room as the trope of "Okay move in move in!" every episode or other episode, which was not denied, and explosions for limited reason :pac: but yeah I understand the series overall is a landmark film makers thesis on policing in Baltimore.

Get off Boards and go and watch it.
It touches on so many topics which are (and always will be) relevant when discussing modern day life and current affairs.

Policing, war on drugs, education, family dynamics and impact of lack of role models, politics, corruption, media and personal strengths and failings.

Really excellent series.

[Deleted User]

Overheal wrote: »

That's the millionth recommendation I've seen for the Wire. The first reccomender was an old college room mate whom I found to be obscenely obnoxious; I discounted his recommendation and mocked what I saw in the living room as the trope of "Okay move in move in!" every episode or other episode, which was not denied, and explosions for limited reason :pac: but yeah I understand the series overall is a landmark film makers thesis on policing in Baltimore.

It's a social study, you'll love it. Season 1 seems like a generic enough cop show but then it spreads itself to every part of society.

everlast75

Preet's take on the CFO charges

https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status/1410695753975189507?s=19

briany

If the Trumps manage to avoid charges themselves, it'll be some confirmation of what I'd already suspected, which is that they're not as ignorant as they let on, that ignorance being more of an act to do the rubes out of money.

everlast75

A funny take on the idiocy at play here

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1410683922535522305?s=19

Btw - do we really think he did this stuff with his own kids, therefore thought it was safe and *didn't* advise trump to do the same?

relax carry on

Poor Trump is having a bad week. He's not exactly ranked the worst US president in history in the 2021 Presidential Historians Survey; but he's pretty close. Any chance the cultists Amy start to reconsider their views on the car crash that is Trump?

https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall

Overheal

Tell me how wrote: »

Get off Boards and go and watch it.
It touches on so many topics which are (and always will be) relevant when discussing modern day life and current affairs.

Policing, war on drugs, education, family dynamics and impact of lack of role models, politics, corruption, media and personal strengths and failings.

Really excellent series.

Deleted User wrote: »

It's a social study, you'll love it. Season 1 seems like a generic enough cop show but then it spreads itself to every part of society.

But my repeats...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7byYMo8B4A

ohnonotgmail

relax carry on wrote: »

Poor Trump is having a bad week. He's not exactly ranked the worst US president in history in the 2021 Presidential Historians Survey; but he's pretty close. Any chance the cultists Amy start to reconsider their views on the car crash that is Trump?

https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall

No.

duploelabs

So it seems that Ivanka could be seriously implicated in this illegal tax avoidance scheme as she's paid in g(r)ifts for her 'consultation'

everlast75

An interesting twitter thread from Kurt Eichenwald..

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1410676547124707336?s=20

I've unrolled it below..

"As someone who has written for decades about corporate crime, I was reading the Trump O/Weisselberg indictment going, "Yah, ok.. hmm.. yah.. ok.. Wait.. HOLY ****!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble. And not because of the criminal charges. Because of its bank loan covenants, in fact, if even the smallest bit of this case is true, I think the Trump Org could be dead. It's complicated, but it primarily pertains to the 12th count of the indictment.

Taking this a step at a time: Like most real estate companies, the Trump Org is horribly illiquid.. this means it cannot readily convert its assets into cash as needed. Worse, because of the incredible incompetence and business idiocy of Trump, cash on hand (and access rapid loans through what is known as the commercial paper market) is small. So, the company survives on loans against assets. Trump originally depended on bank loans, then jumped into high-yield (junk) bond market, which is why so many of his businesses went bankrupt: Junk bonds gave him lots of cash to spend, but he was too stupid to apply an analysis beyond "I'm great" to figure out how he was going to generate enough cash to pay interest on bonds.

He couldn't. With his dad, he tried laundering money through Trump Castle to get past a requirement with his bank loans brought on by his junk debt, but got caught. Everything crashed down so, the bottom line: Trump knows how to borrow money, he doesn't know how to manage it.

Then came The Apprentice, which gave him lots of cash. Of course, he spent it all, then used assets he purchased as security to borrow from banks on apparent assumption that "I'm great" would fix any cash flow problems.

He now has huge amounts of debt against assets that are plummeting in value because of January 6 and his toxic brand name. He *needed* the presidency to survive financially. I have always believed, that is why he is so desperate to keep it because if he was president, he could hit up the Russians, Saudis, etc to bail him out. Now, with him toxic and a threat to the country, those nations know that any secret payments they make to him run a huge risk of being discovered.

Which brings us to today's charges. All bank loans with a business come with "lending covenants." These are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion.

It is included in every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: You maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records" it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: You either are or you aren't. The books and records either are truthful or they aren't.

Which brings us to count 12, which I think you can now understand the significance. That is every every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues.

If they refuse...BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see...BOOM. Loans pulled. If the loans come due (which 100s of millions do next year) no way they get refinanced there may be something I am missing here, but I do not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. But even that seems far-fetched.

Instead, it may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history and given that those of us who covered his business for decades - back when he was a democrat/reform party/whoever would have him - and always knew he was a crook, all I can say is, what the hell took so long? "

Smee_Again

duploelabs wrote: »

So it seems that Ivanka could be seriously implicated in this illegal tax avoidance scheme as she's paid in g(r)ifts for her 'consultation'

Wasn't she also being paid consultancy fees while also drawing down a salary at one point too?

duploelabs

Smee_Again wrote: »

Wasn't she also being paid consultancy fees while also drawing down a salary at one point too?

Yep, and 'gifts' similar to what's already been detailed in the weisenberg indictment

Quin_Dub

And the two hugely qualified and experienced Executive VP's from the Trump organisation were doing the rounds on TV last night complaining about how terribly they were being treated.

Their commentary ranged from "It's political persecution , just like Putin with Navatny(sic)" - because of course being charged with tax fraud is just the same as being poisoned and thrown in a Gulag.

To basically admitting the charges by saying "I mean it's only $3.5M, why aren't the going after the real criminals in New York"

They truly are chips off the old block...

FileNotFound

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And the two hugely qualified and experienced Executive VP's from the Trump organisation were doing the rounds on TV last night complaining about how terribly they were being treated.

Their commentary ranged from "It's political persecution , just like Putin with Navatny(sic)" - because of course being charged with tax fraud is just the same as being poisoned and thrown in a Gulag.

To basically admitting the charges by saying "I mean it's only $3.5M, why aren't the going after the real criminals in New York"

They truly are chips off the old block...

Its gas stuff to be fair.

Seems Ivanka will be next, might upset her political future.

everlast75

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And the two hugely qualified and experienced Executive VP's from the Trump organisation were doing the rounds on TV last night complaining about how terribly they were being treated.

Their commentary ranged from "It's political persecution , just like Putin with Navatny(sic)" - because of course being charged with tax fraud is just the same as being poisoned and thrown in a Gulag.

To basically admitting the charges by saying "I mean it's only $3.5M, why aren't the going after the real criminals in New York"

They truly are chips off the old block...

A Defence lawyer's worst nightmare!

BTW - how are they shocked Trump's taxes are being looked into. He hid them before the election, he hid them during the election. When a kid stands in front of their room and tells you not to go in, you bet your life you are going to go in and check.

ohnonotgmail

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And the two hugely qualified and experienced Executive VP's from the Trump organisation were doing the rounds on TV last night complaining about how terribly they were being treated.

Their commentary ranged from "It's political persecution , just like Putin with Navatny(sic)" - because of course being charged with tax fraud is just the same as being poisoned and thrown in a Gulag.

To basically admitting the charges by saying "I mean it's only $3.5M, why aren't the going after the real criminals in New York"

They truly are chips off the old block...

Well he does know the Best People(TM)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/candidate-trump-promised-best-people-cabinet-50183308

Patrick2010

FileNotFound wrote: »

Its gas stuff to be fair.

Seems Ivanka will be next, might upset her political future.

She has none

Tell me how

I'm here to rain on the parade.
I'm still not overly convinced. Reading Trumps body language when meeting with Greg Abbott earlier this week, he didn't look like this was weighing heavily on him.
I think if it was, we'd have seen him allude to it more and also seen some Republicans suggest it was politically motivated to undermine him given they have handed the party over to him.

Unless, they think this will finally finish him, and they entertained him for the last 6 months to appease the 74M who voted for him. It could be either scenario, or somewhere in between, or something totally different. So in short, I don't know what will happen.

notobtuse

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And the two hugely qualified and experienced Executive VP's from the Trump organisation were doing the rounds on TV last night complaining about how terribly they were being treated.

Their commentary ranged from "It's political persecution , just like Putin with Navatny(sic)" - because of course being charged with tax fraud is just the same as being poisoned and thrown in a Gulag.

To basically admitting the charges by saying "I mean it's only $3.5M, why aren't the going after the real criminals in New York"

They truly are chips off the old block...

So the political witch hunt and show trial begins in the banana republic of New York. Trump was right… it has always been a witch-hunt orchestrated by the politically motivated Manhattan DA, Cy Vance, who has hated Trump with a passion for many years.

The IRS has been auditing Trump and his organization for like a bazillion years haven’t filed any charges. That should tell you a lot. And that is because corporations that do these things regularly (such as paying perks to Weisselberg for things like parking garage fees, reimbursement of personal holiday expenses, and tuition for some family members) usually just slap a fine and and tack on interest charges.

But not in the banana republic’s witch-hunt's world... it’s a 15 count indictment including tax fraud, grand larceny, and conspiracy, for not reporting these perks as taxable income or reporting the wrong Trump entity paying them out. So slap the handcuffs on Weisselberg and parade him in front of the media like they’ve arrested Public Enemy Number One. No walk of atonement for thee.

It’s obvious Vance, the loathsome NY DA, targeted Trump first and then went about searching and putting millions of dollars of taxpayer dollars into investigating anything and everything to try and get the man. That is not how the law is supposed to work in American. That’s how things happen in banana republics. Here you are supposed to identify the crime first and then go about investigating... well that is if your name is not Donald Trump, apparently.

So for the gazillionth time the media handmaidens of the Democratic Party are again claiming this with be the end to Trump... Case closed, game over, zip up your fly, as Stephen King would say in one of his fiction novels.

But there’s another saying by Thomas Howell that should be remembered, “Counte not thy Chickens that vnhatched be, Waye wordes as winde, till thou finde certaintee.” I'll translate that to the modern English phrase if anybody wants.

Leroy42

Do you think tax evasion is wrong?

Quin_Dub

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm hear to rain on the parade.
I'm still not overly convinced. Reading Trumps body language when meeting with Greg Abbott earlier this week, he didn't look like this was weighing heavily on him.
I think if it was, we'd have seen him allude to it more and also seen some Republicans suggest it was politically motivated to undermine him given they have handed the party over to him.

Unless, they think this will finally finish him, and they entertained him for the last 6 months to appease the 74M who voted for him. It could be either scenario, or somewhere in between, or something totally different. So in short, I don't know what will happen.

Certainly it seems that is the way Trump is thinking. He thinks that it helps his "witch hunt" angle and might be a problem for Democrats with Independents etc.

If these are the only charges proffered I'd agree , but I suspect that this is just the start of it.

They failed to get Weisselberg to flip thus far it seems so now they are going to actually charge him and see if real jail time and bankruptcy get him to start talking.