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FrancieBrady wrote: » blanch, you are handwaving all opinion away based on an 'eternal coalition' of FF/FG clinging to the power and refusing to talk to others.
blanch152 wrote: » No point in predicting anything beyond the latest opinion poll.
blanch152 wrote: » Nobody based an opinion on an "eternal coalition" of FF/FG. Indeed a previous opinion poll which put a FG/Green/SD/Labour coalition on 40% offered other options. The key point is that Sinn Fein have never had serious government discussions with any party because not a single party has ever wanted to enter government with them (unless you include PBP).
ineedeuro wrote: » That's why I said "most". Look across all of these threads and these similar predications are all been made tell a very similar story. You are just the latest so I wasn't specifically talking about yours. Personally this far out from an election I wouldn't bother predicting anything, especially with the ability of all parties to be the next bad headline.
Cluedo Monopoly wrote: » Ah...SDs and Labour doubled their seats.
FrancieBrady wrote: » You have been told that basing an opinion on an 'eternal coalition' of FF/FG is also an fantasy. Political sense says it is a whimsical fantasy because it signals the decline of one of those parties one way or another. FF lied to the electorate last time about going into coalition because of this reality.
ineedeuro wrote: » These "predictions" all seem to have something in common, demise of most parties except for Sinn Fein.
blanch152 wrote: » A prediction founded in logic and rationale carries more weight than one based on fantastical dreaming. I am open to be corrected on the latter point, but it seems you don't have an answer.
FrancieBrady wrote: » All I offered was, it is not based on an opinion poll. You are the one predicting the result of the next election based on that, and a putative continuation of the current coalition, which is fine but also only a prediction like Cleudo Monopoly's. There is no guarantee that a FF/FG coalition will be possible or desirable to the partners.
blanch152 wrote: » In an effort to reach your level of pedantry, that tells us nothing in response to the question about the rationale and logic (if any) behind the fantasy prediction.
FrancieBrady wrote: » They already did, in their post. It's a rough prediction of the next GE results.
ineedeuro wrote: » Maybe, the poster could answer the question?
CleudoMonopoly wrote: My rough prediction for GE.Next is
FrancieBrady wrote: » No, you passed judgement blanch. It was obvious the poster was 'predicting' the result of the next election.
blanch152 wrote: » You seem to know their thoughts, I don't, hence I am asking questions.
FrancieBrady wrote: » He/she is making a prediction based on his/her guess at the next GE election voting figures, not an opinion poll?...just a wild guess. :rolleyes:
blanch152 wrote: » You are making things up, just to be contrary once again. There are opinion polls, they point to the likely make-up of the Dail, they allow for reasonable predictions of how many seats each party might get. That is all I am saying. Fantasy predictions, without any basis, are just being queried by me. If there is some other way that the poster can point to a rationale of independents with 13% of the opinion poll picking up 25% of the seats, let us hear it.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Well, your reasoning seems to be that FF and FG will always coalesce to cling to power, just because. It's clear that is based on fantasy if you listen to possible future leaders of FF wh have no issues looking elsewhere for coalition partners. So you eternal coalition is a bit of a fantasy too.
blanch152 wrote: » We can all play fantasy politics or fantasy football, but if someone is making a "prediction" that is completely out of line with current reality, I am interested in the reasoning, if any, behind it.
timmyntc wrote: » Mail on Sunday poll has a different spread also - curious how you went straight with the times' poll. Because it puts FG & FF closer to SF perhaps?
blanch152 wrote: » On what basis have you predicted this? The current polls show nothing like that. They show the current government having a clear increased majority, heading for 90 seats between them. Your prediction shows 64. To say the post lacks credibility would be an understatement.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll Social Democrats on 2%, yet you give them 12 seats. All independents/SD/PBP combined are on 13%, yet you give them 25% of the seats. Fantasy stuff.
FrancieBrady wrote: » It's a prediction blanch, just like 'FF and FG will coalesce with one another' in perpetuity is a prediction. It could be the predicted reaction in a GE to FF and FG being honest about the fact they will do whatever it takes to cling to power, who knows.
Cluedo Monopoly wrote: » The next election will be the first ever that SF are treated as equals to the legacy parties FF and FG. Up until 2016, they were very much treated as a minority party and often did not get debate invites. It will be very interesting to watch how that plays out. SF will plan the next election to the nth degree. I cant wait to see how FFG try and wrestle back the power swap. My rough prediction for GE.Next is SF = 46 FG = 33 FF = 28 SDs = 12 Lab = 10 SD-PBP = 6 GP = 3 INDs = 22
Calhoun wrote: » You know how it is in Ireland, its all remedial right now because what matters will be the election performance. SF had better plan to the nth degree they do not need anything linking them to violence or to past violence's. The party members need to take lesson from the David Cullinane incident and assume that everyone has a multimedia recording centre in their pocket. There had better not be any big damaging faux pas between now and then because it will all be brought out during the election campaign.
AlmightyCushion wrote: » The same people criticising the government now for not building back in 2011 would have criticised them back in 2011 if they were building loads of houses.
