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FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

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Loafing Oaf

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is no leaving there options open especially if the government survives the full term. Unless this government falls due to a FG/FF fracture then FF have no choice but to align itself with a government voting pact. They will not receive votes from the left or form SF if this goes full term.
FF got more seats last election from FG transfers than any other section of the vote.

Yes but FF were going in to the last election with an even more vehemently anti-SF line than FG. Many in the party may well believe that making friendly noises towards SF will attract some transfers from that quarter.

Anyway regardless of that, the underlying thinking within the party may well be that whatever they do about pre-election strategy, they will ultimately be faced with the choice of another deal with FG or one with SF.

Jim O’Callaghan sets out what I believe will be their approach: “My view is that at the next election Fianna Fáil should neither rule in nor rule out any party for coalition purposes. By ruling out a party we spend too much time talking about that party. Fianna Fáil should contest the next election on our own manifesto and record. If we are successful and receive sufficient support from the electorate, we should try to form a government with other parties who have compatible policies."

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes but FF were going in to the last election with an even more vehemently anti-SF line than FG. Many in the party may well believe that making friendly noises towards SF will attract some transfers from that quarter.

Anyway regardless of that, the underlying thinking within the party may well be that whatever they do about pre-election strategy, they will ultimately be faced with the choice of another deal with FG or one with SF.

Jim O’Callaghan sets out what I believe will be their approach: “My view is that at the next election Fianna Fáil should neither rule in nor rule out any party for coalition purposes. By ruling out a party we spend too much time talking about that party. Fianna Fáil should contest the next election on our own manifesto and record. If we are successful and receive sufficient support from the electorate, we should try to form a government with other parties who have compatible policies."

If FG and FF come closer together in the polls, which I think will happen (Varadkar bringing FG back to their 2020 GE result) you will see a dogfight for survival.
I wouldn't rule out FG making overtures to the Shinners tbh in order to survive what looks like an incoming collapse for one of the two.

I think FF have a strategy of staying out of trouble and quiet mainly and are doing ok. Up 6 in this poll suggests it is beginning to work.

timmyntc

Another thing to remember is that by and large, FF have been taking most of the flak for the govt up to now (likely due to MM as Taoiseach) - when it rotates and Varadkar is top dog facing into rising interest rates and corporation tax reform, I'd expect FG to take a hit too.

Bass Reeves

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Apart from the usual snideness you have done it again.

I.E. Countered a poll of 'individual' political parties by coalescing/merging FF/FG.

To continue your 'military' theme, seems to me FF and FG, having been forced to coalesce, are now in a bunker, fighting a rearguard action. Hence the attack dogs getting more rabid and careless, biting themselves more often than not. What happens when they turn on one another to survive will be fascinating.

You are deluded about political reality just like FF was during the 80's. It could not accept that you need a majority of TD'S to form a government. 1-2 short and you were opposition unless the other parties failed to reach agreement.

The political reality is that with a transfer agreement if the three parties achieved 53% they have up or o er 90 seats. FF and Labour were independent parties a d had.much less in common than FF/FG or for that matter the Greens.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG could harm their chances massively by engaging in a pre-election vote pact. The resistance to change/cling to power is going to wear very thin with the electorate if we still have the perennial crisis in key areas of government.

It's FF and the Greens have to make a decision not FG.FG voters are used to voting pacts and as well as I pointed out in an earlier post DG voters voted FF when all FG candidate and like minded Independent's were eliminated.

It is you.who do not understand the way PR works. If anything FF has the most to gain. It transferred to Ind, SF and left in the last election and got nothing back unless it was a FF/FG head to head and it did not pick up seats because of it.

blanch152

Calhoun wrote: »

Its crazy that SF are in ways seen as a left leaning party, they have some left leaning policies but i wouldn't say they are true left.

The problem the rest have is they are to fractured and broken out. FF & FG are by no means out for the count because i find allot of times the opposition lacks a clear and concise message or is focused on politics that the regular voter isn't as interested in. Hence people flocking to SF.

The numbers suggest that FF/FG mightn't need the Greens the next time.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's interesting. FG decline in popularity SF rise and it looks like we are always going to have a FG/FF government as a result. Seems to be what those making the best out of this poll are saying.

Why don't they just officially merge and be done with it?

Francie, the reality is that Sinn Fein are like the Le Pen party in France. No matter who the other candidate is in a Presidential run-off, the Le Pen candidate loses out. Right transfers to left, left to right etc. and so on.

It is the same here. When it comes down to coalition partners and you have a choice between SF and anybody else, including Healy-Raes, Lowrys or Murphys, you pick the non-SF choice. That is how it is going to be for the next decade or more.

SF will need to hit 40% or more to make a different coalition too unstable.

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

The numbers suggest that FF/FG mightn't need the Greens the next time.

blanch152 wrote: »

Francie, the reality is that Sinn Fein are like the Le Pen party in France. No matter who the other candidate is in a Presidential run-off, the Le Pen candidate loses out. Right transfers to left, left to right etc. and so on.

It is the same here. When it comes down to coalition partners and you have a choice between SF and anybody else, including Healy-Raes, Lowrys or Murphys, you pick the non-SF choice. That is how it is going to be for the next decade or more.

SF will need to hit 40% or more to make a different coalition too unstable.

But you're assuming here that FF will always choose a deal with FG over one with SF. I think that's far from a given, especially if FF have a different leader.

Calhoun

blanch152 wrote: »

The numbers suggest that FF/FG mightn't need the Greens the next time.

I hope not, the greens have kinda imploded don't know if they will keep their numbers as they are.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But you're assuming here that FF will always choose a deal with FG over one with SF. I think that's far from a given, especially if FF have a different leader.

Absolutely on the money.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But you're assuming here that FF will always choose a deal with FG over one with SF. I think that's far from a given, especially if FF have a different leader.

FG will be running in the next election on the basis of a SF no way strategy. They know a SF-led government hasn't a hope of surviving a year, so even they don't get back in, they won't be out for long.

FF are in a bind. If they reject SF up front, they won't get transfers from SF, if they don't reject SF up front, they could lose FPVs to FG. They need both.

Calhoun wrote: »

I hope not, the greens have kinda imploded don't know if they will keep their numbers as they are.

Well, I will be voting Green again, unless they signal serious intent to go in with Sinn Fein.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Francie, the reality is that Sinn Fein are like the Le Pen party in France. No matter who the other candidate is in a Presidential run-off, the Le Pen candidate loses out. Right transfers to left, left to right etc. and so on.

It is the same here. When it comes down to coalition partners and you have a choice between SF and anybody else, including Healy-Raes, Lowrys or Murphys, you pick the non-SF choice. That is how it is going to be for the next decade or more.

SF will need to hit 40% or more to make a different coalition too unstable.

Where are you setting SF's 'ceiling' this weather blanch?

Michael would have formed a coalition with SF last time had FF a significant number of seats over them and he was assured of first go at Taoiseach. You can deny the evidence of that in the media (Micheál opens door to SF) and here at the time) all you want and refuse to look Jim Callaghan's comments in the face, as well.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where are you setting SF's 'ceiling' this weather blanch?

Michael would have formed a coalition with SF last time had FF a significant number of seats over them and he was assured of first go at Taoiseach. You can deny the evidence of that in the media (Micheál opens door to SF) and here at the time) all you want and refuse to look Jim Callaghan's comments in the face, as well.

I underestimated the ability of the electorate to see through the fake unworkable populist policies of Sinn Fein, that I got wrong. That doesn't negate the point of SF being akin to the Le Pen party.

So you keep telling us about FF, but it never happened so you got that one wrong.

Looking forward, FF will dally with SF before and during the election campaign to keep options open etc., and possibly will join them. However, that will only strengthen FG.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I underestimated the ability of the electorate to see through the fake unworkable populist policies of Sinn Fein, that I got wrong. That doesn't negate the point of SF being akin to the Le Pen party.

So you keep telling us about FF, but it never happened so you got that one wrong.

Looking forward, FF will dally with SF before and during the election campaign to keep options open etc., and possibly will join them. However, that will only strengthen FG.

Yes it did happen. FF considered going in with SF. They will again.

Which brings me back to the reaction to the poll based on FF and FG always being coalition partners. It was nonsense and just another attempt to bat away the new realities in Irish politics.

Quite obvious FG and FF's attempt to continue the power swap is on borrowed time.

ineedeuro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes it did happen. FF considered going in with SF. They will again.

Which brings me back to the reaction to the poll based on FF and FG always being coalition partners. It was nonsense and just another attempt to bat away the new realities in Irish politics.

Quite obvious FG and FF's attempt to continue the power swap is on borrowed time.

No FF didn't consider going in with SF.

FrancieBrady

ineedeuro wrote: »

No FF didn't consider going in with SF.

The level of denial still strong on here. Oh well, another disappointment due I suppose when it eventually happens.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114244-pathway-to-coalition/

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes it did happen. FF considered going in with SF. They will again.

Which brings me back to the reaction to the poll based on FF and FG always being coalition partners. It was nonsense and just another attempt to bat away the new realities in Irish politics.

Quite obvious FG and FF's attempt to continue the power swap is on borrowed time.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The level of denial still strong on here. Oh well, another disappointment due I suppose when it eventually happens.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114244-pathway-to-coalition/

You believe headlines in newspapers over substance in the articles.

The facts are clear - FF never talked to SF about coalition, Martin never mentioned SF as an option, Francie spins a speculative newspaper article into fact.

ineedeuro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The level of denial still strong on here. Oh well, another disappointment due I suppose when it eventually happens.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114244-pathway-to-coalition/

If I read both of those articles I see nothing to say FF wanted to go into coalition apart from a headline. A headline which is used to get clicks.

Fann Linn

ineedeuro wrote: »

If I read both of those articles I see nothing to say FF wanted to go into coalition apart from a headline.

'None so blind...... '

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You believe headlines in newspapers over substance in the articles.

The facts are clear - FF never talked to SF about coalition, Martin never mentioned SF as an option, Francie spins a speculative newspaper article into fact.

Next day, when Micheal realised that SF were going to win equal seats, he shut the door again blanch.

Seems a lot on this island don't like dealing with equals.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Next day, when Micheal realised that SF were going to win equal seats, he shut the door again blanch.

Seems a lot on this island don't like dealing with equals.

You can't shut a door that was never open.

FrancieBrady

Fann Linn wrote: »

'None so blind...... '

Pointless, those posters in denial about this are in a bubble. Hands in ears muttering 'it will never happen'.

A bit like the DUP and the ILA.

Reality is reality though and it is obvious now that a continuation of the power swap is not inevitable.

Calhoun

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, I will be voting Green again, unless they signal serious intent to go in with Sinn Fein.

They have the diversion of the splinter group that is doing their own thing, which could impact them.

[Deleted User]

ineedeuro wrote: »

No FF didn't consider going in with SF.

SF seem to be in a bit of a bind without them onboard. Is there anyone else that will go in with them?

Loafing Oaf

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

SF seem to be in a bit of a bind without them onboard. Is there anyone else that will go in with them?

Has anyone other than FG ruled it out?

is_that_so

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

SF seem to be in a bit of a bind without them onboard. Is there anyone else that will go in with them?

FG are a No to it and FF might well leave them to try to form their own government.
If they ended up sucking in that level of votes, they'd knock out the left. If the distribution of popularity is the same as the last election it wouldn't get them that many extra seats anyway unless they did versions of that silly Donegal strategy from a few elections ago where they ran three.

Shebean

I'd be very disappointed in any party would go in with the like of Fianna Fail.

blanch152

Calhoun wrote: »

They have the diversion of the splinter group that is doing their own thing, which could impact them.

It could indeed, but I am not hearing of many of the main activists on the ground moving. The Greens may have learned the old lesson that a day in government is worth a year in opposition.

blanch152

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

SF seem to be in a bit of a bind without them onboard. Is there anyone else that will go in with them?

No serious party. Labour and Social Democrats didn't give it any serious consideration.

The alphabet left split again over it, didn't they?

Bass Reeves

blanch152 wrote: »

No serious party. Labour and Social Democrats didn't give it any serious consideration.

The alphabet left split again over it, didn't they?

It's the same with the left in the UK when they get into power the party cannot move fast enough for the radical element. This element causes disfunction within the party. In Ireland any time the left is in power you get micro elements of the left attacking it over not being radical enough. In the 80's it was Tony Gregory and the Workers party with Jim Kemmy as well. During the 2011-16 government mind you the Democratic Left cohort was so hungry for power it left too many hostages to fortune in its bid to stop a FG overall majority and along with the radical left proceeded to wipe out that party.

It will be the same when SF enters government down the line the radical left will attack it from one side and the Greens and Labour will devour it from the other side.

RandomViewer

Calhoun wrote: »

I hope not, the greens have kinda imploded don't know if they will keep their numbers as they are.

Greens will lose most if not all their seats, FF if there's an election soon will take a heavy hit, FG stagnant or lose because of no transfers, next election will have lots of genepool FF/FG candidates running as independents