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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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lintdrummer

basill wrote: »

North American west coast city noted for gambling and late nights?

In all seriousness, not that I think it's going to be announced tomorrow, but I have it on good authority that it is being considered quite seriously at senior levels.

L1011

Cards would have been issued if it was the routes or EI threads where the ban exists. Don't even go there unless there's a press release on the website

Duff

Hey guys,

Is there any indication as to how things will be in the US come September with regards to travel from here? I've a trip to New York in September and I'm not sure if I should try and re0arrange it for early next year and pay the difference. I know it's hard to predict at the best of times but I'm hopeful we'll be on the green list by then as we should have the vast majority vaccinated here.

Cheers.

Jack1985

Duff wrote: »

Hey guys,

Is there any indication as to how things will be in the US come September with regards to travel from here? I've a trip to New York in September and I'm not sure if I should try and re0arrange it for early next year and pay the difference. I know it's hard to predict at the best of times but I'm hopeful we'll be on the green list by then as we should have the vast majority vaccinated here.

Cheers.

The Irish Gov are going to permit travel from Ireland to the EU, UK and US under similar conditions as the EU Covid Travel Certificate from 19th of July.

For Irish Citizens, to enter the US requires the US to relax border restrictions which should happen at some point over the Summer especially as Europe and the UK will have broadly similar levels of inoculation.

I’d be looking forward to your US Trip in September!

Duff

Jack1985 wrote: »

The Irish Gov are going to permit travel from Ireland to the EU, UK and US under similar conditions as the EU Covid Travel Certificate from 19th of July.

For Irish Citizens, to enter the US requires the US to relax border restrictions which should happen at some point over the Summer especially as Europe and the UK will have broadly similar levels of inoculation.

I’d be looking forward to your US Trip in September!

That's great to hear! Fingers crossed now. Thank you for the info.

[Deleted User]

Jack1985 wrote: »

The Irish Gov are going to permit travel from Ireland to the EU, UK and US under similar conditions as the EU Covid Travel Certificate from 19th of July.

For Irish Citizens, to enter the US requires the US to relax border restrictions which should happen at some point over the Summer especially as Europe and the UK will have broadly similar levels of inoculation.

I’d be looking forward to your US Trip in September!

Germany is at about 30 cases per 100000 over a 7 day period. There is no justification to limit travel to Germany for another 7 or 8 weeks.

HTCOne

I wonder if we’ll see a ramp up in services by the US carriers from July 19 now. We’ve been told the big US 3 are chomping at the bit to get back in. Due to the CARES Act they have a far higher % of aircraft and staff still operating than their European counterparts so can react more quickly.

Jacovs

The Aviation LEEF Sub Group, chaired by TD Hildegard Naughton, issued a report recently and wrote a letter to Michael Martin about it. For what its worth.
Not sure how to upload/post pdf's, im sure others on here have seen it too.

Blut2

HTCOne wrote: »

I wonder if we’ll see a ramp up in services by the US carriers from July 19 now. We’ve been told the big US 3 are chomping at the bit to get back in. Due to the CARES Act they have a far higher % of aircraft and staff still operating than their European counterparts so can react more quickly.

We'll hopefully see them back much sooner than that. Americans are free to travel here now as things stand if they're vaccinated, which 62% of the adult population are (as of today). The bigger demand issue is Europeans still can't fly to America because of their entry ban on us.

Thats supposedly going to be rescinded for the UK & Ireland on June 7th according to rumours now though:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/15090547/airlines-preparing-restart-transatlantic-flights-from-june-7/amp/

(The Sun I know...but the story only broke a few hours ago, I've not seen it elsewhere yet).

If thats the case I'd imagine we'll see a gradual ramping up of TATL traffic from mid-June on-wards.

WishUWereHere

Jack1985 wrote: »

The Irish Gov are going to permit travel from Ireland to the EU, UK and US under similar conditions as the EU Covid Travel Certificate from 19th of July.

For Irish Citizens, to enter the US requires the US to relax border restrictions which should happen at some point over the Summer especially as Europe and the UK will have broadly similar levels of inoculation.

I’d be looking forward to your US Trip in September!

Any reason why Canada isn't included?

lintdrummer

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Any reason why Canada isn't included?

Didn't come out of the bingo drum when they were picking the countries.

Doylers

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Any reason why Canada isn't included?

Presumably they might want something reciprocal ? Canada has been very quiet on plans with everyone needing to quarantine. Dare I saw they are even further behind Ireland in this respect.

Tenger

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Any reason why Canada isn't included?

As above. Canada may not be eager to open up just yet.

I had read a report (can't recall where, may have been the Times) over the weekend that the US may introduce a similar system to the green cert which would be compatible with the EU to allow reciprocal travel.

Read an article today (The Spectator in the UK) that Israel have scraped their own green cert.
It was being mostly ignored as people were focusing on the massive drop in cases rather than adhering to the rules. (0.02% positivity amongst 21,000 tests in the last week)

Tenger

Delta announce strong rebound in their business;

Delta: "Domestic leisure [travel] will be 100% restored by June, with ... bookings ahead of 2019 levels and yields essentially recovered," - Glen Hauenstein (President, Delta Air Lines)

Source: https://j.mp/3wMu06p

HTCOne

Good. Probably the best run airline in the world. Their profit sharing scheme with employees should be a template for most other carriers. The fact they still do all their maintenance in-house, including total engine overhaul also bucks the trend.

cson

TSA screenings hit ~1.9m/day over the holiday weekend, for reference 2019 was ~2.5m/day.

Bear in mind that is with negligible international travel.

When it comes back in Ireland/EU, I expect it to come back in a similarly big way to what's happening here in the US.

There are a lot of people who've been relatively unaffected financially by the pandemic.

theguzman

cson wrote: »

TSA screenings hit ~1.9m/day over the holiday weekend, for reference 2019 was ~2.5m/day.

Bear in mind that is with negligible international travel.

When it comes back in Ireland/EU, I expect it to come back in a similarly big way to what's happening here in the US.

There are a lot of people who've been relatively unaffected financially by the pandemic.

For alot of people the pandemic has benefited them massively, I know people who made eye watering fortunes out of Amazon, Tesla, Bitcoins and even Gamestop recently. Most people I spoke to who were on the PUP said they were better off on it and happier too. Everyone had a common denominator, I can't wait to go on holidays and I have the money saved up already type of answer.

I myself didn't let covid keep me out of the Sky with two trips to South America for a combined 3 months (Dodging lockdown), one to the USA, Eastern Europe, Spain and the Mid-East since March 2020. Conditions at home actually encouraged me to travel more and I travelled more in Covid times than all of 2019.

Since the outbreak of Covid I travelled to: UK, USA, Qatar, Spain, Serbia, Gibraltar, Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Turkey.

I am planning a tour of Scotland by car maybe in July now, then a flight to Greece and rent a car for a balkans tour of Greece, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo and maybe Bosnia too across 2-3 weeks in late August early Sept, restrictions permitting.

Blut2

HTCOne wrote: »

Good. Probably the best run airline in the world. Their profit sharing scheme with employees should be a template for most other carriers. The fact they still do all their maintenance in-house, including total engine overhaul also bucks the trend.

Very much agreed. I've got a couple of friends working with them who mostly say good things. And as a customer I have to say they're by far the best of the US big 3 to fly with in my experience too. They're always incredibly easy to deal with for any changing to bookings etc, just great customer service. And well run operations. ATL is also very easy to connect through.

We just need their JFK and ATL to DUB routes to restart now...

cson

Fwiw DL have had fairly significant trouble spinning up capacity (crew out of hours etc) over peak travel periods - last few holidays over here have seen them have substantial IRROPs. They did seem to get through the latest one ok though, so might be behind them.

Blut2

Forbes now has an article reinforcing the discussion from that Sun link I posted a few days ago:

There are reports that a bilateral agreement has been worked out between the U.S. and the U.K. to reopen travel between the two countries.

If confirmed, this news would allow British people entry to the U.S. with just a negative Covid-19 test result, taken no more than 72 hours before travel. For entry into the U.K. travelers would need the same and also to take a test within two days of arriving into the country–the same as other current green list countries.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2021/06/01/usuk-travel-reports-of-travel-bubbles-opening-soon/?sh=1d0c9762edc1

The key dates to watch seem to be the UK's next review of their green list on June 7th, and/or the G7 summit where Biden is in the UK himself - Jun 11th-13th.

Hopefully we're included with the UK.

Tenger

Blut2 wrote: »

......
The key dates to watch seem to be the UK's next review of their green list on June 7th, and/or the G7 summit where Biden is in the UK himself - Jun 11th-13th.

Hopefully we're included with the UK.

Well they included us when they introduced the travel ban last year.......

Lustrum

theguzman wrote: »

For alot of people the pandemic has benefited them massively,..... .

Well done with all the travelling, Paraguay is somewhere I'd love to get to some day!

Just to bear in mind though (as this is the impact on aviation forum), a huge amount of crew in stobart have been furloughed, most of cityjet crew have lost their jobs, I'm sure someone else can speak for ryanair as I'm not sure whats going on there, and all Aer Lingus crew have been on half their salary (which isn't a lot for those of us on the lower end of the scale) since April of last year.

So while it's great to read of other airlines getting back to some sort of normality, the reality here in Ireland is very far from it unfortunately, with no end it sight

Blut2

Tenger wrote: »

Well they included us when they introduced the travel ban last year.......

Yeah, which would make me assume/hope our travel ban will be tied in with the UKs when it comes to lifting it too. We haven't magically migrated from the CTA to Schengen since then. But you never know with the rather arbitrary border control decisions being made these days...

Nijmegen

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/03/england-covid-travel-restrictions-green-list-update

Portugal yanked from the UK green list. I wonder will they need to have repatriation flights or will holidaymakers just live with the quarantine. Won’t help confidence in bookings.

L1011

Think that takes affect from Tuesday - there will definitely be repatriation offers by airlines as there'll be people that'll pay for it.

Blut2

That UK decision is nuts. Its clearly just intended to keep people (or more accurately, their money) on staycations in the UK. To quote another poster in a different thread here on it:

CruelSummer wrote: »

I was just about to post regarding this. What on earth are the U.K. up to?

It seems they’re aware of a Nepal variant that WHO themselves aren’t & somehow linked it in the way the news is phrased re Portugal. As if to imply this new variant is in Portugal when it most certainly is not...

https://twitter.com/whonepal/status/1400341162527887362?s=21

I think this is more about politics and less about travel. Aren’t the US just about to reopen borders to the UK in June also...

This is what Grant Shapps said:

“He said the emerging Nepal mutation of the Indian variant was of concern and Portugal's positivity rate has "nearly doubled since the last review".

Firstly where is the Nepal variant circulating when WHO and others says the two B1617 variants plus B117 are circulating in Nepal. If Nepal is on a mandatory quarantine list for the U.K. - how does this affect Portugal, and other locations. It all seems very shambolic.

Tenger

Saw a post on twitter last night. It was a map of the EU.
8 members have yet to start issuing DCC to their citizens.
7 of those will start doing so on Thursday.

Ireland will be the only member not issuing the DCC by this time next week.

found the map here, scroll down;
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/eu-digital-covid-certificate_en

gral6

Why Irish aviation still being killed? Because of 13 patients in ICU and open border with North? Where is the logic ?

RocketRaccoon

gral6 wrote: »

Why Irish aviation still being killed? Because of 13 patients in ICU and open border with North? Where is the logic ?

There is no logic, same as there's no logic in keeping indoor dining closed. <SNIP>

Solobally8

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

There is no logic, same as there's no logic in keeping indoor dining closed<SNIP>

No need to insult people with special needs. The people who run our country are just elitist a**holes who don’t care about anything but their fat wage packet and pension.